Preparing for Uncertainty and Self Reliance

[C-Mag]

Conventional wisdom in survivalist and prepper talk is always based on getting out of urban areas to the safety of the countryside, doubled with avoiding the hordes of mass exodus from urban areas. But I don't see the historical record showing that is the case for humans. Let's look at the siege of Sarajevo and the Argentine Economic collapse as recent examples.

In the Siege of Sarajevo, which is as bad as anything we've seen until the recent Syrian civil war. The pre war population was approx. 525,000. Prior to the siege, but after the war started the population dropped to 435,000 or a 17% drop. After the siege the population dropped to 350,000 or Two-Thirds of it's original population. Even after all that.

So, where's the mass exodus that has been the Red Meat of survivalist fiction ?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo

Well, that was a siege, involving an encircled city...

I think you'd have to get more specific about which type of threat is happening - if economic, history shows people swarming into the cities. When infrastructure breaks down, the first links re-established will always be to population centers.

In the case of a disease, you might see some people spread out, but they are more likely to end up dying on the road, or in refugee camps than forming Mad Max road gangs.

I'm having a hard time thinking of any scenario in which people, in general, would actually abandon the cities by choice, for any length of time.

There was a tunnel in Sarajevo where people could get out, I don't know all the details about it though. Probably cost a fare amount to traverse.

Now, I'd have to brush up on my Black Death, but I do believe people left cities as soon as the black death arrived in that city. Economic crashes historically lead to immigration to another country, not immigration to the countryside.

It's just crazy that this is a BEDROCK belief of the survivalist/prepper thought, and history doesn't support it. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Conventional wisdom in survivalist and prepper talk is always based on getting out of urban areas to the safety of the countryside, doubled with avoiding the hordes of mass exodus from urban areas. But I don't see the historical record showing that is the case for humans. Let's look at the siege of Sarajevo and the Argentine Economic collapse as recent examples.

In the Siege of Sarajevo, which is as bad as anything we've seen until the recent Syrian civil war. The pre war population was approx. 525,000. Prior to the siege, but after the war started the population dropped to 435,000 or a 17% drop. After the siege the population dropped to 350,000 or Two-Thirds of it's original population. Even after all that.

So, where's the mass exodus that has been the Red Meat of survivalist fiction ?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo

Well, that was a siege, involving an encircled city...

I think you'd have to get more specific about which type of threat is happening - if economic, history shows people swarming into the cities. When infrastructure breaks down, the first links re-established will always be to population centers.

In the case of a disease, you might see some people spread out, but they are more likely to end up dying on the road, or in refugee camps than forming Mad Max road gangs.

I'm having a hard time thinking of any scenario in which people, in general, would actually abandon the cities by choice, for any length of time.

There was a tunnel in Sarajevo where people could get out, I don't know all the details about it though. Probably cost a fare amount to traverse.

Now, I'd have to brush up on my Black Death, but I do believe people left cities as soon as the black death arrived in that city. Economic crashes historically lead to immigration to another country, not immigration to the countryside.

It's just crazy that this is a BEDROCK belief of the survivalist/prepper thought, and history doesn't support it. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

Well, from a prepper standpoint, it’s better to be self-sufficient, and that’s only possible outside of the cities. Unless you already have a place to go though, you’re just making yourself a refugee.

I think this is more a case of wanting to do Something, but not committing to leave beforehand, when it’s easy.

[Speaker to Animals]

The issue comes down to food. Most survivalist fiction centers around mass disruptions in food supplies.

[Speaker to Animals]

Then there is the safety issue since democrats turned the hearts of the cities into vote plantations populated by a high percentage of criminals and third worlders.

Most cities in America will divide up along sectarian lines with the globalist chickens come home to roost. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near that.

[C-Mag]

Spotted this

Thanks to wildfires, hurricanes, and certain leaders trading threats of nuclear annihilation over Twitter, you've probably been thinking a lot about disasters recently — specifically how not to perish in one.

And if you live in a city, this kind of thinking can be extra fraught. It's easy enough for doomsday preppers living in the woods to head for bunkers filled with canned food, but how are you supposed to get out of dodge when you don't even own a car?
http://theweek.com/articles/730098/how- ... e-big-city

And this

A growing number of young Americans are leaving desk jobs to farm

....She joined a growing movement of highly educated, ex-urban, first-time farmers who are capitalizing on booming consumer demand for local and sustainable foods and who, experts say, could have a broad impact on the food system.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... 8582482fdb

[Speaker to Animals]

I have seen it here to some extent. The hippies and degenerates around Asheville have been ahead of the curve. Lots of local farming. They have their own restaurants that use local foods. It's actually a lot of good food for some reasonable prices. They have the kernel of an alternative economy started.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Spotted this

Thanks to wildfires, hurricanes, and certain leaders trading threats of nuclear annihilation over Twitter, you've probably been thinking a lot about disasters recently — specifically how not to perish in one.

And if you live in a city, this kind of thinking can be extra fraught. It's easy enough for doomsday preppers living in the woods to head for bunkers filled with canned food, but how are you supposed to get out of dodge when you don't even own a car?
http://theweek.com/articles/730098/how- ... e-big-city

Yeah, those people are fucked. Deal with it.

And this

A growing number of young Americans are leaving desk jobs to farm

....She joined a growing movement of highly educated, ex-urban, first-time farmers who are capitalizing on booming consumer demand for local and sustainable foods and who, experts say, could have a broad impact on the food system.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... 8582482fdb

That's actually super encouraging. Good News Item.

[C-Mag]

I have seen it here to some extent. The hippies and degenerates around Asheville have been ahead of the curve. Lots of local farming. They have their own restaurants that use local foods. It's actually a lot of good food for some reasonable prices. They have the kernel of an alternative economy started.

That is good news, then there is this
15 Stats That Show Americans Are Drowning in 'Stuff'
1. There are 300,000 items in the average American home (LA Times).
2. The average size of the American home has nearly tripled in size over the past 50 years (NPR).
3. And still, 1 out of every 10 Americans rent offsite storage—the fastest growing segment of the commercial real estate industry over the past four decades. (New York Times Magazine).
4. While 25% of people with two-car garages don’t have room to park cars inside them and 32% only have room for one vehicle. (U.S. Department of Energy).
5. The United States has upward of 50,000 storage facilities, more than five times the number of Starbucks. Currently, there is 7.3 square feet of self storage space for every man, woman and child in the nation. Thus, it is physically possible that every American could stand—all at the same time—under the total canopy of self storage roofing (SSA).
6. British research found that the average 10-year-old owns 238 toys but plays with just 12 daily (The Telegraph).
7. 3.1% of the world’s children live in America, but they own 40% of the toys consumed globally (UCLA).
8. The average American woman owns 30 outfits—one for every day of the month. In 1930, that figure was nine (Forbes).
9. The average American family spends $1,700 on clothes annually (Forbes).
10. While the average American throws away 65 pounds of clothing per year (Huffington Post).
11. Some reports indicate we consume twice as many material goods today as we did 50 years ago (The Story of Stuff).
12. Currently, the 12 percent of the world’s population that lives in North America and Western Europe account for 60 percent of private consumption spending, while the one-third living in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 3.2 percent (Worldwatch Institute).
13. Americans spend more on shoes, jewelry, and watches ($100 billion) than on higher education (Psychology Today).
14. Over the course of our lifetime, we will spend a total of 3,680 hours or 153 days searching for misplaced items. The research found we lose up to nine items every day—or 198,743 in a lifetime. Phones, keys, sunglasses, and paperwork top the list (The Daily Mail).
15. Americans spend $1.2 trillion annually on nonessential goods—in other words, items they do not need (The Wall Street Journal).

[SuburbanFarmer]

The gold standard in homesteading podcasts. https://www.thisishomesteady.com

[SuburbanFarmer]

This video makes me unreasonably happy.