THE ERA OF TRUMP

[Smitty-48]

Well the what-the-fuck-you-gonna-do-about-it-nomics does come into play, because if everybody is dumping the US market, where are they gonna go? To the matresses? That ain't gonna last.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Well the what-the-fuck-you-gonna-do-about-it-nomics does come into play, because if everybody is dumping the US market, where are they gonna go?

Wherever it is, you can be sure that we'll be bombing it ASAP.

[Smitty-48]

It's all relative, it depends on when you bought in, from 1929 to 1937, your net haircut was about 20%, but if you bought in 1921, your net gain was 400%, if you're buying AAPL at $143, you could take a big haircut, but if you bought it for $14, it would have to be the Great Depression all over again before you hit the red, which, wait five years, and you're well back into the black, plus all your dividends.

If you go long and take your profits as you go, you're beating a savings account by many orders of magnitude, even in the event of the Great Depression. I'm not saying go all in, keep cash on hand, buy a house, spread it around, nobody said go all in on equity, but what you can put aside to play with, you can make that work for you, in all sorts of ways, you don't buy the index, only own what is paying you to own it, and take your profits periodically, don't get greedy.

This is why I love stock splits, if they give you seven to one, and then go on a 1000% run, hold four, drop three, take your 300%, and then no matter what happens, you're golden. If AAPL dissapears into a black hole tommorow, I still made a mint anyway you slice it.

When the market noses over into a correction, and people are selling off, that's not losses, they're just cashing out their profits, which, after the run we've been on since 2008, are some serious fuckin' profits, we are where we are, am I eager to cash out my dividend paying stocks right now, this minute, because the market is overheated? Not really, I'll let it ride, if it all dissapears into a black hole tommorow? Oh well, it's only money.

I could walk into the doctors office tommorow and he could say "you got terminal cancer, six months to live", that's what he said to my old man in 2008, didn't give much thought to his stock portfolio after that, tellin' you, he took a big a haircut when the market crashed, no doubt, but he didn't notice so much, being dead n' all.

There's only one bubble bursting that ever really matters, everything in the meantime, is pure profit.

[Smitty-48]

That's because the normal market cycle is 5-7 years. We're currently pushing 11. It's happening, and soon.

Still, it's not just a question of saying "Ok, now I'm going to short the market", you have to decide who to short, when to short, and how long to short for, it's one thing to short with options, or buy a bear fund, to be hedged, but to just go a shorting willy nilly, you could be forced to unwind that pretty quick, there's no making big bank, without taking big risk, whether you're playing it to the upside or the downside.

Short long call to January on company X? Sure, but that's more of a hedge. Betting on the blind side to be the next Dr. Burry? Yeah, OK, good luck.

If you're going to go big short to make big bucks, you gotta have a big purse on hand, to cover if it all goes wrong, Smitton Capital Management, I ain't, I'm not betting the farm here, for a reason; I like this farm, and I live in it, so I'm not putting it in play.

Conservative shorting in a bear market to be hedged, not a problem, agressive shorting across the board to try to exploit a correction for big profits, that's getting into the deep end with the sharks, not my cup of tea.

[Hastur]

What do you guys think the next bubble will be? Have you taken any measures to profit from it bursting?

The next bubble looks like it might be the Bond market. Bubbles are notoriously hard to predict though.

[apeman]

Many good posts over the past several pages.

Also, I bet no one here has successfully shorted anything, ever, despite the talk.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Many good posts over the past several pages.

Also, I bet no one here has successfully shorted anything, ever, despite the talk.

Not true. Made a nice profit on GPRO after their IPO, and doing the same to SNAP now. Just taking a bit longer, because they managed to lock up their 'non-voting shares' until August. Lots of smaller ones, such as the SPY dip last summer, and the summer before that.

That said, I do more losing than winning, but look at the market over the last 3 years. It's been insane, despite falling earnings, stagnant growth, and 100 other things. All that matters is the Fed. Until it doesn't.

[apeman]

Many good posts over the past several pages.

Also, I bet no one here has successfully shorted anything, ever, despite the talk.

Not true. Made a nice profit on GPRO after their IPO, and doing the same to SNAP now. Just taking a bit longer, because they managed to lock up their 'non-voting shares' until August.

Lots of smaller ones, such as the SPY dip last summer, and the summer before that.

Post screenshots of your transactions or I don't believe it.

[Ex-California]

I don't gamble

[apeman]

I don't gamble

Then you also don't retire, ever.