It's Happening.

[Martin Hash]

The portion of the population that have good jobs, that have ambitions to reach the 1%, those people will deny America's rotten core. For them, they have worked too hard, too much luck, too optimistic to see it all go down the shitter, so they squeeze their eyes shut and wish for America to go on until after their time in the sun... But it's not going to. Whatever initiates The Collapse will appear to be random, like a sketchy rail pulled from a Jenga stack. No country can survive the lack of confidence in its leadership, the fracturing of its cohesion, that this one has.

p.s. Money is imaginary, and inflation is not threatening to America.

[apeman]

Bond traders don't believe the Fed, correct.

Doesn't mean bond traders don't believe there will be a hike and roll-off, it means that, long term, conditions are getting easier after they get tighter.

Can't taper a ponzi scheme.

[apeman]

The portion of the population that have good jobs, that have ambitions to reach the 1%, those people will deny America's rotten core. For them, they have worked too hard, too much luck, too optimistic to see it all go down the shitter, so they squeeze their eyes shut and wish for America to go on until after their time in the sun... But it's not going to. Whatever initiates The Collapse will appear to be random, like a sketchy rail pulled from a Jenga stack. No country can survive the lack of confidence in its leadership, the fracturing of its cohesion, that this one has.

p.s. Money is imaginary, and inflation is not threatening to America.

If that is directed to me, my post certainly did not deny the rotten core, in fact, I believe we have sowed the seeds of our destruction.

That being said, this is still the best time and place to be alive. So long as netflix is cheap, gibs are flowing, and people are eating, we've got time.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Bond traders don't believe the Fed, correct.

Doesn't mean bond traders don't believe there will be a hike and roll-off, it means that, long term, conditions are getting easier after they get tighter.

Can't taper a ponzi scheme.

And what do you suppose happens when - shock of all shocks - the Fed does exactly what they just announced they'll do next month, and dumps $20B in bonds?

And in November, when they sell $40B?

December, $60B, and a rate hike, because fuck you.

Just an illusion? Not really happening? You think they're all going to sit there and lose value?

[apeman]

Bond traders don't believe the Fed, correct.

Doesn't mean bond traders don't believe there will be a hike and roll-off, it means that, long term, conditions are getting easier after they get tighter.

Can't taper a ponzi scheme.

And what do you suppose happens when - shock of all shocks - the Fed does exactly what they just announced they'll do next month, and dumps $20B in bonds?

And in November, when they sell $40B?

December, $60B, and a rate hike, because fuck you.

Just an illusion? Not really happening? You think they're all going to sit there and lose value?

There are massive institutional clients holding bazillions in treasuries, but you think they are all stupid, that its obvious how this plays out and they don't see it.

Dunning-Kruger

This is not about losing value, this is about value over the next period of years.

Do you really think the fed finally found austrian econ and they are now gonna allow the business cycle to function? I wish, but no way.

Once stocks are 10-20% down, big easing is coming. Otherwise, with pension crisis et al, we will have riots in the streets.

[Martin Hash]

The portion of the population that have good jobs, that have ambitions to reach the 1%, those people will deny America's rotten core. For them, they have worked too hard, too much luck, too optimistic to see it all go down the shitter, so they squeeze their eyes shut and wish for America to go on until after their time in the sun... But it's not going to. Whatever initiates The Collapse will appear to be random, like a sketchy rail pulled from a Jenga stack. No country can survive the lack of confidence in its leadership, the fracturing of its cohesion, that this one has.

p.s. Money is imaginary, and inflation is not threatening to America.

If that is directed to me, my post certainly did not deny the rotten core, in fact, I believe we have sowed the seeds of our destruction.

That being said, this is still the best time and place to be alive. So long as netflix is cheap, gibs are flowing, and people are eating, we've got time.

I'm old, you're young. I would never direct that at a young optimist, but you did inspire it.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Bond traders don't believe the Fed, correct.

Doesn't mean bond traders don't believe there will be a hike and roll-off, it means that, long term, conditions are getting easier after they get tighter.

Can't taper a ponzi scheme.

And what do you suppose happens when - shock of all shocks - the Fed does exactly what they just announced they'll do next month, and dumps $20B in bonds?

And in November, when they sell $40B?

December, $60B, and a rate hike, because fuck you.

Just an illusion? Not really happening? You think they're all going to sit there and lose value?

There are massive institutional clients holding bazillions in treasuries, but you think they are all stupid, that its obvious how this plays out and they don't see it.

Dunning-Kruger

This is not about losing value, this is about value over the next period of years.

Do you really think the fed finally found austrian econ and they are now gonna allow the business cycle to function? I wish, but no way.

Once stocks are 10-20% down, big easing is coming. Otherwise, with pension crisis et al, we will have riots in the streets.

I think they have no reason to stop. Think about what's happened here - a group of extremely powerful banksters somehow convinced a gaggle of morons to allow them to create bonds for the entire GDP out of nowhere, which they now own. Now, they're allowed to sell those bonds, receive money for them, and then raise the rates controlling the value of those bonds, after they start selling.

They don't give a shit what happens after they leave the cashier's window. All of that $20T is going straight into gold and Caribbean islands, as quickly as possible. Shit, they can set up a new government after this one implodes. The rats are leaving the ship with the last of the food.

And yes, I do expect riots in the street.

[apeman]

The portion of the population that have good jobs, that have ambitions to reach the 1%, those people will deny America's rotten core. For them, they have worked too hard, too much luck, too optimistic to see it all go down the shitter, so they squeeze their eyes shut and wish for America to go on until after their time in the sun... But it's not going to. Whatever initiates The Collapse will appear to be random, like a sketchy rail pulled from a Jenga stack. No country can survive the lack of confidence in its leadership, the fracturing of its cohesion, that this one has.

p.s. Money is imaginary, and inflation is not threatening to America.

If that is directed to me, my post certainly did not deny the rotten core, in fact, I believe we have sowed the seeds of our destruction.

That being said, this is still the best time and place to be alive. So long as netflix is cheap, gibs are flowing, and people are eating, we've got time.

I'm old, you're young. I would never direct that at a young optimist, but you did inspire it.

I spent most of my life in the doomer camp. Missed out on a lot. Wife and I decided we wouldnt have kids cuz "world gonna end" and "world so shitty" (we changed our minds, wife is pregnant *fingers crossed*)

But when I talks to olds, one funny thing is that they always thought the world was ending, all the time, from war to war, crisis to crisis, get under your desk and kiss your ask goodbye.

The basic "math" of our present society doesn't add up, no doubt. How long can we kick the can, paper over the holes?

Probably quite a while, so long as bread + circus, oil in dollars, really big guns.

Why not Martin? I respect your opposition, please dissect my position here.

[SuburbanFarmer]

, wife is pregnant *fingers crossed*)

Hey, congratulations, man! Boy or girl?

[Martin Hash]

Grumps underestimates America's populace's capacity to accept an aristocracy. There will be no rioting by the hoi poi just because the 1% get richer. Look how long it's been already - since Reagan. Lack of confidence in government is what's going to put bodies in the streets, probably overblown from some seminal but pseudorandom event. Can't say when, only that we're primed to go off.