Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

don't forget the Obama Doctrine

Obama changed the SIOP

America can respond with force against cyberattacks, up to and including with nuclear weapons

I'm not saying that means Washington launches an all out first strike against a cyberattack

but if Russia starts cutting undersea cables with their special mission submarines ?

pretty sure that's DEFCON 2

[Smitty-48]

this is where you start to approach the threshold of Herman Kahn's "Insensate Spasm"

America at DEFCON 2 ?

I don't think we've been there, since they almost launched on false warning in 1979

Russia with Perimetir "Dead Hand" activated ?

Stanislav Petrov is not in the loop anymore

so there is no room for error then

can't have any mistakes at all, when things hair trigger at the brink

this is how you get to Interpolar Exchange by Insensate Spasm

[Smitty-48]

just to explain how Defense Condition works

DEFCON 1 is birds in the air, that is launch in progress

DEFCON 2 is keys out, launch codes authenticated, stand by to launch

so DEFCON 3 is really the highest level of alert without going right to the brink

and I would guess that's where we must be now

[Smitty-48]

the last time we were here, DEFCON 3, was on 9-11

based on the press reports after the incident in 1979

they were in a countdown, which got to 2 minutes 12 seconds away, before they figured out it was a false alarm

so that was DEFCON 2

but I can't think of any other incident in the Cold War where they were at DEFCON 2

not even the Cuban Missile Crisis

[Smitty-48]

I would say that this is a far more dangerous situation than the Cuban Missile Crisis, right now

because in 1962, the Soviets had no chance

they had a handful of tac nukes in Cuba, and a diesel sub carrying a nuclear torpedo

Curtis LeMay meanwhile had 800 B-52's circling at FAIL SAFE just outside of Soviet airspace

the Soviets could not have even fought a thermonuclear war against America at the time, which is why they didn't

but where we are now, the Russians actually have the more powerful deterrent force

America has not bothered to keep pace with them in terms of nukes

America shifted to Imperial Policing, allowed the TRIAD to diminish therein

[Smitty-48]

then you got the people in denial

the main assertion is always "unthinkable", "inconceivable", "nobody would ever really do it"

orly ?

you don't think the Ukrainians would be brandishing their nukes, if they had them now ?

[Smitty-48]

if I was advising Putin ?

I'd be telling him

you are over the Rubicon now

this was a high risk gambit

but now you've gone and done it, Marge

there's no going back, they are coming for you now, they will keep coming until you are deposed

so you might as well go for broke

starting cutting those undersea cables, start mining those choke points

start using your submarines to swing the tide here, and do it now

Escalation Dominance : in for a penny, in for a pound

[Smitty-48]

if I was the Kremlin

I would be telling NATO

kicking Russia out of the SWIFT banking system : is an act of war

next comes torpedoes

[Smitty-48]

people think : if you go big, if you go for broke, that is the most dangerous option

no

the most dangerous option is half measures

that's how you get to World War Three

you mission creep up to it in stages

[Smitty-48]

NATO is throwing the kitchen sink at the Russians

simultaneous fiscal, economic & energy embargo

embargo is an act of war by the letter of the Hague Convention

and yet Putin is not responding

which means he's delusional

which is scary in of itself

when he is going to suddenly snap out of it and do something aggressive in desperation by then ?