Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

in my 2014 Poke the Bear scenario I expected Putin to take east Ukraine, up to the banks of the Dneiper

so he would have had to take Kharkiv as they are now

but I expected the Russians to leave west Ukraine & Kiev intact

this is the absolute most extreme scenario now

where Putin is trying to take the whole country, seizing both Kiev & Kharhiv at the same time

it does have major potential to go sideways, with two Stalingrads going at the same time

[Martin Hash]

it does have major potential to go sideways, with two Stalingrads going at the same time

That's a malapropos but fitting metaphor.

[C-Mag]

That's what I expected as well. Take ethnically Russian dominated regions.


Trump announced he is running in 2024, add that to our frantic Op Tempo

[Smitty-48]

it does have major potential to go sideways, with two Stalingrads going at the same time

That's a malapropos but fitting metaphor.

the reason for my prediction was that I was calculating what the Russians could hold

seizing is one thing, holding is another

east Ukraine being annexed, I could see that

but invading all of Ukraine ?

I deemed that to be unlikely

since how are they going to hold it once they take it ?

[Smitty-48]

Ukraine is the size of Texas

with a bigger population than California, 44 million

how are they going to hold it even if they take it ?

I can't figure it out

[DrYouth]

The economic “warfare” presents an interesting wrinkle in this conflict.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... as-economy

Instead, the really big step is to target the institution at the heart of Russia’s fortress economy, the central bank. It holds $630bn of foreign reserves, equivalent to 38% of Russia’s gdp in 2021 (the sanctions may also cover a sovereign-wealth fund with further holdings).

That means some, or even much, of Russia’s national war chest can be frozen.

The new measures will inflict heavy damage on Russia. And they also represent a rubicon that will fundamentally alter how sanctions and the global economy work. That is because plenty of other countries that pursue foreign policies that America does not agree with hold large sums of reserves. The largest of all is China, much of whose vast savings are held in Western financial instruments or through Western firms. It will be watching and learning from Russia’s financial squeeze, and how Russia retaliates, and trying to assess how it can avoid becoming crushed by the West’s financial vice.

[Smitty-48]

and this is where I can see the regime in the Kremlin getting in deep over their heads

then starting to unravel

but people just assume that it will be peaceful and not at the brink of thermonuclear war

because that is what they know

that is what happened in 1991

but I don't see why that has to happen every time the regime in Moscow collapses

I don't see why that has to happen twice in a row

seems perfectly logical to me, that it might go the opposite way the second time to the well

[Martin Hash]

Talks announced in Minsk

[DrYouth]

It doesn't have to...

But there are going to be powerful forces within Russia that don't want to see nuclear armageddon.

They may decide it is best to throw Putin's regime under the bus prior to him going suicidal... and if his military assesses what Putin has led them into is untenable, the chances of a coup against him will escalate.

I just keep wondering what led to this act of desperation... it seems like a wild gamble...

The only thing I can think of is that he is dealing with threats within the nation and he imagined this would make him stronger...

Its easy to see how that might be a desperate miscalculation... that would only make sense if he was already up against the wall.

[C-Mag]

Talks announced in Minsk

Good

Trump should offer to negotiate with the two parties.