Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

see the ramifications

extrapolate from the historical record

nothing like this has happened

for the entire rule of the Pax Americana

nothing like this has happened

since the outbreak of the Second World War

which means this is the end of the Pax Americana

happening right now

which means this is Hegemonic Succession

which is the stuff the World Wars were made of

[Smitty-48]

which means now is the time to get your money out of the banks, covert to physical gold

because this is not just an all out assault against Ukraine

this is an all out assault against the Hegemony itself

and that Hegemony

is King Dollar

[Martin Hash]

What are the odds that ICBMs fly on the same day the People’s Convoy blocks D.C.?

[Smitty-48]

What are the odds that ICBMs fly on the same day the People’s Convoy blocks D.C.?

thermonuclear confrontation wouldn't likely kick off as an Interpolar Exchange

Interpolar Exchange would be what Herman Kahn called "Insensate Spasm"

that is something that would happen at the brink, by mistake, in the fog of war

this can escalate still further into the conventional from here

the Russians haven't even committed their main force yet

the next thermonuclear event horizon is Nuclear Deescalation

the Russians get way in over their heads, end up backs against the wall

but phase one of Nuclear Deescalation is warning shots

in practical terms, breach of the Test Ban Treaty

maybe underground live detonation of thermonuclear bomb

maybe its gone so far that they cut straight to live atmospheric test at Novaya Zemyla

in essence, we go back to 1962, literally overnight, when Putin is backed against a wall

[DrYouth]

Are you thinking this becomes a quagmire?

It seems to have lots of quagmire potential...

Did Putin think this was going to be a quick win?


Seems totally insane.

The Russian population already seems depressed...
Could be the end of Putin if this becomes a nightmare quagmire... I would guess.

[Smitty-48]

so I would say that your initial threat horizon

would be widespread panic

in the face of Crazy Ivan

popping a nuke in the Arctic

to send NATO stern warning

that we are officially back to the brink

this generation has never seen it

and this generation lives in a Safe Space

so they might fly off the handle at first

in the face of 1962 coming back, at short notice

[DrYouth]

Has Putin already gone crazy tho?

Is there any rational geopolitical calculation here.

It seems insane as far as I can tell.

[Smitty-48]

Are you thinking this becomes a quagmire?

read the thread

I already said

that this is potentially the biggest quagmire

since 1 September 1939

[Smitty-48]

Has Putin already gone crazy tho?

not crazy

resolved

he is already over the Rubicon

might as well go for broke now

[DrYouth]

When did he cross?

And why did that happen?

I haven't heard a convincing timeline out there... or rationale.

NATO manoeuvring in Eastern Europe... is all I've heard... but it seems insufficient.