Russian trolls

[Penner]

Someone posted this in my Facebook feed.

http://act.tv/v/17201/

I have no idea how reliable or unreliable this source is... it seems pretty left wing...

But what is the consensus on the forum on whether Russia has been trying to polarize politics in the US and in Europe.

It seems plausible that they would like to destabilize their competition...

In fact this would be a genius move on their part if you think about it...

Are Russians playing 3D chess with Trump as a pawn?
This seems more plausible to me than Trump playing 2D chess with or without the Russians.

Well, yes. They have been doing disinformation warfare for decades and are pros at it. Using the internet was just them upgrading their system to the modern age, IMO.

[Viktorthepirate]

Also, maybe what they had was old as shit and degraded.

Not old, but plausibly ill prepared, A-232 is a binary agent, the precursors are non lethal until combined, so could have been a botched preparation. The shelf life of the precursors is very long, but if they're not combined in the right way at the right time, could result in a less lethal agent.

Mind you, the Russians know what they're doing, so that again raises doubts as to a state run operation.

That was going to be my response before I read the last paragraph.

I would imagine if the Russians wanted someone killed overseas with a nerve agent that could inflict collateral damage they wouldn't assign Igor the fuckup.

[Smitty-48]

Another thing to note; N series agents are mysterious, there's no actually reliable test to identify them, for example, you can tell if something is Sarin or VX or whatever, by measuring certain chemicals in the blood, fluoride, phosphorus, what have you, but A-232 is sneaky stuff, leaves no trace other than the acetylcholine build up in the spinal fluid, which is a signature inherent to all nerve agents.

Also, if someone knows how to make it, they wouldn't have to get it from Russia, they could find the precursors in pesticides and fertilizers and then synthesize in situ.

[Smitty-48]

In other words, there's no way for them to positively identify A-232, so they are assuming it is A-232 because they can't identify it as anything else.

Acetylcholine build up in the spinal fluid, with no other signature trace; smells like Novichok, because Novichok smells like nothing.

[Smitty-48]

See how Moscow is playing this; "if you say it is Russian made; give us a sample of the agent so we can identify it" when they know full well that A-232 leaves no trace.

That does point to Mr. Ivan, seems a little too sure of himself, which is a tell tale sign. Clever Mr. Ivan, cheeky.

"Wot? Can't produce a sample as evidence, eh, Theresa? Well isn't that a pickle, mwahahahaha. . ."

[Smitty-48]

I would imagine if the Russians wanted someone killed overseas with a nerve agent that could inflict collateral damage they wouldn't assign Igor the fuckup.

Could be rogue element from within Russia, Skirpal was GRU, could be old FSB vs GRU score being settled, or even GRU on GRU violence.

Interservice rivalry in Russia can be a very rough game indeed, and intraservice scores have to be settled as well.

To wit, someone in the Russian security services could have been after him, but not necessarily Putin.

[Smitty-48]

See, bear in mind, the Kremlin already had Skirpal in their clutches, IIRC, this is the guy they traded for Anna Chapman, to assassinate him after the fact, that breaks the code, it was a spy swap, if you want to swap in the future, you don't whack the guy you swapped after you made the deal, but somebody else within the security services may have had their own vendetta and executed it without sanction, knowing that Putin wouldn't exactly weep for him in the end.

I mean, Putin didn't just swap Skirpal, he pardoned him as well, seems odd that Putin would want him dead after issuing a Presidential pardon, as that would be inherently undermining of his own authority, thus it seems almost in defiance of Putin frankly, to whack this guy now.

Cui bono? As I say, might be the Russians looking to intimidate the British, but might also be a third party, might be a third party from Russia, might be a third party from somewhere else who was false flagging knowing full well the Russians would be blamed.

If it was Novichok-5, that could be the Russians sending the message that it was them, but it could have been chosen for a false flag specifically because it would seem that way.

[Smitty-48]

Fun fact tho; as the British seem to be officially interpreting this as a Russian chemical weapons attack on British soil, and Theresa May has issued an ultimatum to Moscow in response, to which Moscow has responded by calling her bluff, we have now moved from Stage 1 (Ostensible Crisis) to Stage 2 (Retortions), on Herman Kahn's 44 stage Ladder of Escalation to all out nuclear war.

Next comes Stage 3 (Solemn and Formal Declarations), which is the last stage in the Subcrisis Maneuvering Phase, otherwise known as the Don't Rock the Boat Threshold.

[ssu]

Fun fact tho; as the British seem to be officially interpreting this as a Russian chemical weapons attack on British soil, and Theresa May has issued a formal ultimatum to Moscow in response, we have now moved from Stage 1 (Ostensible Crisis) to Stage 2 (Retortions), on Herman Kahn's 44 stage Ladder of Escalation to all out nuclear war.

Next comes Stage 3 (Solemn and Formal Declarations), which is the last stage in the Subcrisis Maneuvering Phase, otherwise known as the Don't Rock the Boat Threshold.

We aren't going anywhere on that Ladder of Escalation. Much angry polemic, but not much else.

It's going to be interesting how Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State will approach the Russian question. After all, when he was offered the CIA director's job, he took it only if he was assured he wouldn't have to say anything about the Russian meddling in the elections and the Russia investigation. Obviously a thing that an intelligence service director shouldn't have to discuss or think about. Unlike Tillerson, Pompeo understands that in the Trump cabinet your main job is licking the ass of the President and trying influence his like an obedient catholic housewife does woo his husband. So I guess Pompeo will be a fine guy for Trump until shit hits the fan in the foreign policy arena and he has to go.

Pompeo had extreme views on Moscow before he became CIA director, "but as a Trump loyalist, he has softened his views on Russia and seems to be in line with Trump," Anders Aslund, resident senior fellow at think tank Atlantic Council, said in a note.

But anyway, likely we'll get the neocons back into power. Unfortunately Trump doesn't like John Bolton's moustache, hence that neocon hasn't yet kissed his way back to power.

[Smitty-48]

Can't say that we are going nowhere on the Ladder of Escalation, since we have already gone somewhere.

Interesting note, USAF RC-135W SIGINT bird 62-4134 departed RAF Mildenhall at 0655Z, has taken up orbit over Estonia along the Russian border.

edit; ah, that seems to be in response to the Russians trucking out an Iskander-M mobile ballistic missile regiment for a simulated launch exercise just south of Pskov.