Stock Market Totally Artifical

[SuburbanFarmer]

Yields. The bond market drives stocks.

That’s where the Fed is dumping, and that’s where they’re borrowing to pay for the Tax Bill, Infinite War, and everything else.

Last week, the yield on bonds went over the dividend payout for the S&P. This week, it may top 3%. That’s going to trigger a mass rush for the exits.

If The Fed bought the Bonds, the yield would go down, protecting stocks. The Fed is probably already doing it. I'm thinking anything that Imaginary Money can do to keep the ship afloat will be done.

So, what other things could bring down corporate sales? A big religious revival that convinces people to stop consuming?

No. When the Fed sells bonds, there is oversupply, so the yields go up.
They bought up the bond market since 2008, using magic money, which is why we’re at near-zero interest rates. Now they’ve announced they’re unloading, but they can’t. That magic money is about to become real.

As to your question, inflation will drive up the price of imports - the materials those companies sell.

[Martin Hash]

Yields. The bond market drives stocks.

That’s where the Fed is dumping, and that’s where they’re borrowing to pay for the Tax Bill, Infinite War, and everything else.

Last week, the yield on bonds went over the dividend payout for the S&P. This week, it may top 3%. That’s going to trigger a mass rush for the exits.

If The Fed bought the Bonds, the yield would go down, protecting stocks. The Fed is probably already doing it. I'm thinking anything that Imaginary Money can do to keep the ship afloat will be done.

So, what other things could bring down corporate sales? A big religious revival that convinces people to stop consuming?

No. When the Fed sells bonds, there is oversupply, so the yields go up.
They bought up the bond market since 2008, using magic money, which is why we’re at near-zero interest rates. Now they’ve announced they’re unloading, but they can’t. That magic money is about to become real.

As to your question, inflation will drive up the price of imports - the materials those companies sell.

I included a link last week explaining how The Fed can buy Treasuries off-book, which lowers interest rates. They intentionally tried to unload last week because they got a new Fed Chair from Trump who probably asked them to unload. They tried, it failed, they won't try again.

[SuburbanFarmer]

If The Fed bought the Bonds, the yield would go down, protecting stocks. The Fed is probably already doing it. I'm thinking anything that Imaginary Money can do to keep the ship afloat will be done.

So, what other things could bring down corporate sales? A big religious revival that convinces people to stop consuming?

No. When the Fed sells bonds, there is oversupply, so the yields go up.
They bought up the bond market since 2008, using magic money, which is why we’re at near-zero interest rates. Now they’ve announced they’re unloading, but they can’t. That magic money is about to become real.

As to your question, inflation will drive up the price of imports - the materials those companies sell.

I included a link last week explaining how The Fed can buy Treasuries off-book, which lowers interest rates. They intentionally tried to unload last week because they got a new Fed Chair from Trump who probably asked them to unload. They tried, it failed, they won't try again.

They have no choice.

The Fed needs to maintain an image of control over the markets. Without that, they have no reason to exist. Their only tool is manipulation of interest rates, by buying up the largest security market in the world - bonds.

Scenario A: they keep printing as the ship goes under. Trump has already started a trade war, tariffs are flying, the market is overdue, and it’s going down. As everything burns, the dollar goes kaput, and they’re still holding trillions in bad debt when we default. Those are private bankers. They aren’t going to take that hit - they’d be wiped out along with everyone else. Worst case scenario.

Scenario B: they keep unloading, the market tanks, yields return to normal, we get a Depression, but we survive. Fed is recognized to be the problem, and they’re abolished. Best case for us, also not an option for them.

Scenario C: they do nothing, and watch it all burn. Fed is left with trillions in bad debt as we default, Depression, America survives.

There is no way out. It will either be bad or worse.

[Martin Hash]

99% “C”

But we won’t “default”

[StCapps]

The Fed isn't going to be abolished, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

[SuburbanFarmer]

99% “C”

But we won’t “default”

The only way we don’t default is with printing of real money to pay the interest on the debt - which is already at the level of GDP. If/when we do that, inflation, inflation, inflation. Then we default.

It is inevitable.

[SuburbanFarmer]

The Fed isn't going to be abolished, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

They’ve been abolished several times. They keep coming back whenever we run out of money.

The Central Banking system is really just a temporary gigantic loan against the future. And eventually, that loan always comes due.

[Martin Hash]

The amount of inflation determines everything; less than 50% per month, we’ll probably make it okay. Lot’s of wealthy retired won’t be wealthy anymore but the rest of the population will be just where we left them, relatively so.

[StCapps]

The Fed isn't going to be abolished, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

They’ve been abolished several times. They keep coming back whenever we run out of money.

The Central Banking system is really just a temporary gigantic loan against the future. And eventually, that loan always comes due.

Those weren't The Fed, those were shittier central banks, like I said, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

[SuburbanFarmer]

The Fed isn't going to be abolished, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

They’ve been abolished several times. They keep coming back whenever we run out of money.

The Central Banking system is really just a temporary gigantic loan against the future. And eventually, that loan always comes due.

Those weren't The Fed, those were shittier central banks, like I said, SIFCLF wishful thinking.

You're right. It's different this time.