Cut the Bull Shit. What would war with North Korea look like?

[BjornP]

Gonna have to agree with Grumpy on this, while the total artillery weapons for the entire KPA, including every obsolete piece of junk they have in storage, is listed in the tens of thousands, the number of actual tubes targeting Soeul specifically is more like 700. "Millions" is hyperbole ad absurdum, even worst case scenario, is in the tens of thousands. It would take time for the population to take shelter and/or flee, but the NK's could bombard the place for weeks and still not kill millions, and the ROK has all the KPA positions presighted, so the actual bombardment would be hours, days at most, not weeks, before most of the NK guns were silenced.

There would be the initial cathcing people by surprise out in the open effect, that's where most of the casualties would be suffered, but it will be down to a trickle in a matter of hours. The have basements, they have bomb shelters, and they have a very deeply dug subway system, the NK's could cause a lot of mayhem, but it wouldn't be anything as severe as these silly over the top breathless handwringing estimates claim.

The NK's are not ten feet tall, not even close, the net result of any KPA bombardment of Souel would be NK Highway of Death, they would get pummeled, it would get ugly, and it wouldn't take that long.

Are all the artillery positions currently aimed at Seoul, fixed artillery positions? Honest question.

I don't believe that NK is some sort of unique, super dangerous threat or that they would do something as suicidal as attacking Seoul without significant provocation. But ten million people live in Seoul, and with an experienced artillery crew that's anywhere between five and nine artillery shells fired a minute. Granted, I thought alot more people lived in Seoul, so I agree that a million is probably too big a number of potential casualties. It was GCF's "artillery is simply not that effective unless people are standing out in the open" comment I was specifically addressing.

[Smitty-48]

Are all the artillery positions currently aimed at Seoul, fixed artillery positions? Honest question.

No, but all movement across the DMZ is being tracked, relentlessly, that's pretty much all the ROK Army does, the KPA is not able to conceal large formations of artillery, within range of Souel, and there is a myriad of overhead assets watching the disposition of forces across the DMZ at all times.

Moreover, the moment anything opens fire in this day and age, it immediately gives its position away to counterbattery radar, and the response time for counterbattery fires is now so fast, that shoot n' scoot is a very dangerous job indeed, never mind that when you're scooting you're not shooting, so counterbattery supresses fire markedly in of itsef.

[Speaker to Animals]

Yeah, we can track almost everything in the theater, honestly.





It would require quite a lot of air strikes to take out their artillery. To do it right, we'd really need China's help.

Most likely, South Korea would be getting hit with artillery.

[Smitty-48]

This whole narrative about the NK's being able to "flatten Seoul" is entirely a media fabrication, it came from an offhanded hyperbolic remark in a Time Magazine article a few years back, and the MSM has simply been regurgitating it flatuently ever since, and since it is in the interests of the Pentagon to exaggerate threats, they just roll with it.

General Mattis? He's the last person I would look to for a no bullshit assessment of any threat, because he has a conflict of interest to wildly exaggerate.

You ask the Pentagon how much money they need? Of course they're going to say "OMFG!!!", I mean, duh.

[Speaker to Animals]

Dude, all they need is for maybe two or three of them to score some hits in downtown Seoul for there to be some pretty awful casualties, though.

If you do this, would you not want to hit as many (all if possible) of their artillery within range of Seoul and other cities as quickly as instantly as you can possibly manage?

[Speaker to Animals]

This is one of the reasons I keep harping on the idea of developing suborbital bombers we can launch from CONUS to strike anywhere to replace at least some of the carriers. We could have three or four waves of those things launched before the first strike, and each of them can drop a slew of kinetic rods to hit pretty much anything they want, even at great distances from one another.

[Smitty-48]

Dude, all they need is for maybe two or three of them to score some hits in downtown Seoul for there to be some pretty awful casualties, though.

So they cause some casualties; Big whoop. It's a war, shit happens, but that's no reason to poop your drawers over it and wildly exaggerate the threat. /shrug

[Speaker to Animals]

Dude, all they need is for maybe two or three of them to score some hits in downtown Seoul for there to be some pretty awful casualties, though.

So they cause some casualties; Big whoop. It's a war, shit happens, but that's no reason to poop your drawers over it and wildly exaggerate the threat. /shrug

Oh, I didn't say it was. But people need to be realistic about what will happen. We are seriously talking about this now.

[BjornP]

Are all the artillery positions currently aimed at Seoul, fixed artillery positions? Honest question.

No, but all movement across the DMZ is being tracked, relentlessly, that's pretty much all the ROK Army does, the KPA is not able to conceal large formations of artillery, within range of Souel, and there is a myriad of overhead assets watching the disposition of forces across the DMZ at all times.

Moreover, the moment anything opens fire in this day and age, it immediately gives its position away to counterbattery radar, and the response time for counterbattery fires is now so fast, that shoot n' scoot is a very dangerous job indeed, never mind that when you're scooting you're not shooting, so counterbattery supresses fire markedly in of itsef.

How fast we talking in terms of that counterbattery fire? More or less than eight minutes from first barrage by own side to counterfire by the enemy?

[Smitty-48]

Dude, all they need is for maybe two or three of them to score some hits in downtown Seoul for there to be some pretty awful casualties, though.

So they cause some casualties; Big whoop. It's a war, shit happens, but that's no reason to poop your drawers over it and wildly exaggerate the threat. /shrug

Oh, I didn't say it was. But people need to be realistic about what will happen. We are seriously talking about this now.

Why worry about what is beyond your control? Relax in the saddle, if the KPA shoots at Seoul, I guess the South Koreans will have to shoot back, but wait for it, no sense running about flapping and squawking, the ROK's have plenty of firepower to deal with such a contingency.