CS315 - War on a Whim?

[StCapps]

Panic. They are panicking, because the thing is, the North Koreans don't actually intend to invade the South once the Americans withdraw, because they don't have to, without the Americans around anymore, they can coerce the South without having to invade, so once the Americans leave, they ain't coming back, if the North's ICBM's for Peace plan works, the South Korean Right is going to be at the mercy of the North, by proxy through the South Korean Left, the South Korean Rigtht will be repressed, by their own government, on behalf of the North, just to keep the peace.

Sounds like they need a new plan. Panic rarely works, it usually just plays right into the opponents hand.

[Smitty-48]

Problem is, demographically, they are outnumbered, there are ever more panty waist liberal South Koreans who are just willing to go along to get along, the only thing protecting the South Korean Right from repression on behalf of the North, is the Americans, and the North knows this as well, it already happens in nascent form, South Korean liberals have been caving into the North already, even before the Americans withdraw.

Once the Americans withdraw, the North will be able to say "hey, these guys here are threatening the peace, you'd better round these trouble makers up" and the South Korean Right has no doubt that the liberals will do it, they're already itching to do it right now.

[Smitty-48]

I agree that the US does not have the will to do an all out intervention, let alone nuclear war, but I wonder if this is only a temporarily exploitable circumstance. Between the moment North Korea has the (capable) ICBM technology to risk the threat, and the moment the US is confident enough in it's anti-ballistic missile technology. Once the US's ABS systems can negate the North Korean's ICBM technology, they lose that threat.

BMD is an enabler but not an impenetrable shield, BMD could mitigate attrition in a nuclear exchange, but it wouldn't eliminate it, if the NK's launched a dozen missiles, one or two would get through, and the United States is simply not prepared to risk even one US city, for South Korea, even if the chances were only one in a hundred, I don't think the US would risk it.

One in a hundred, when the one is a hydrogen bomb over Los Angeles or San Francisco? Those are not good odds, but the actual odds woud not be that good, once the NK's master the technology, they will have several dozen ICBM's in no time, and that would be enough to saturate American BMD to the point of getting a couple through the defenses, inevitaby.

Bear in mind, the current objective GMD capability in Alaska, is to shoot down a single, it's not even being designed to handle a bakers dozen. But even years from now, when US BMD is mature, it will not be an impenetrable shield, the NK's are aware that the US would attrit their ICBM's, both prior to and after launch, but they won't get them all, and the Americans know this too, and even one, reaches the threshold of unnaceptable risk for the Americans.

This is the core of the NK strategy, they only need to reach a certain threshold, they don't have to destroy the CONUS, they just have to have the capability to throw up enough to get just a couple through, and that is more than enough to acheive their aim, and that is well within their reach, they're not actually that far away right now.

All these failed missile tests are just guiding them towards the ends, that's how you run a missile program from scratch, the United States had many failures too, before they found the right set up. People should not take solace from failed missile tests, that's just how the process works, that's just teaching moments happening, and it's actually the final phases of any missile program, to wit, very far along, in the grand scheme of things.

Any counterforce operation is an extreme high risk gambit by its very nature, BMD is an enabler, but it is not an all encompassing one, certainly the United States might risk a counterforce, if the mission was to defend the United States on the brink of World War Three, but risk it for the South Koreans? The North Koreans do not believe that, they simply do not believe that the US would risk Los Angeles, to save Seoul.

[heydaralon]

Is Dan still podcasting? He's probably making about $8 total for each common sense now, and at this point that is over-charging.

[de officiis]

I agree that the US does not have the will to do an all out intervention, let alone nuclear war, but I wonder if this is only a temporarily exploitable circumstance. Between the moment North Korea has the (capable) ICBM technology to risk the threat, and the moment the US is confident enough in it's anti-ballistic missile technology. Once the US's ABS systems can negate the North Korean's ICBM technology, they lose that threat.

BMD is an enabler but not an impenetrable shield, BMD could mitigate attrition in a nuclear exchange, but it wouldn't eliminate it, if the NK's launched a dozen missiles, one or two would get through, and the United States is simply not prepared to risk even one US city, for South Korea, even if the chances were only one in a hundred, I don't think the US would risk it.

One in a hundred, when the one is a hydrogen bomb over Los Angeles or San Francisco? Those are not good odds, but the actual odds woud not be that good, once the NK's master the technology, they will have several dozen ICBM's in no time, and that would be enough to saturate American BMD to the point of getting a couple through the defenses, inevitaby.

Bear in mind, the current objective GMD capability in Alaska, is to shoot down a single, it's not even being designed to handle a bakers dozen. But even years from now, when US BMD is mature, it will not be an impenetrable shield, the NK's are aware that the US would attrit their ICBM's, both prior to and after launch, but they won't get them all, and the Americans know this too, and even one, reaches the threshold of unnaceptable risk for the Americans.

This is the core of the NK strategy, they only need to reach a certain threshold, they don't have to destroy the CONUS, they just have to have the capability to throw up enough to get just a couple through, and that is more than enough to acheive their aim, and that is well within their reach, they're not actually that far away right now.

All these failed missile tests are just guiding them towards the ends, that's how you run a missile program from scratch, the United States had many failures too, before they found the right set up. People should not take solace from failed missile tests, that's just how the process works, that's just teaching moments happening, and it's actually the final phases of any missile program, to wit, very far along, in the grand scheme of things.

Any counterforce operation is an extreme high risk gambit by its very nature, BMD is an enabler, but it is not an all encompassing one, certainly the United States might risk a counterforce, if the mission was to defend the United States on the brink of World War Three, but risk it for the South Koreans? The North Koreans do not believe that, they simply do not believe that the US would risk Los Angeles, to save Seoul.

But will they feel that way after Calexit...

[heydaralon]

If Dan was trying to describe his relationship with the people on this forum, he could have called the ep. War on a Wimp

[Martin Hash]

I always think old guys wearing baseball caps too narcissistic to show their baldness.

[heydaralon]

I always think old guys wearing baseball caps too narcissistic to show their baldness.

Did your eye ever fully heal? I read your thread about that incident the other day.

[C-Mag]

There were no conscripts during the Revolutionary War. Liberty is not won on foreign battlefields, it is won at home. Right now, Antifa is the only ones battling for anything, and they're on the wrong side. How come you aren't out there with Stick Man?

There is only one guaranteed right that Americans are really willing to fight for, The Right to Keep and Bear Arms. Get yourself a POTUS and Congress willing to make Firearms illegal and we will be fighting for all Liberties again. It's one of the quirks of American Culture, it the reason April 19th, 1775 happened, and it's the one sure thing that will get Americans to take on their government.

Perhaps more importantly, it's the people that value the right to defend themselves that will not allow themselves to be disarmed. The American Revolution didn't start in the town square in Boston or New York, it's started in a rural town. I'm sure New Yorkers considered the shot heard round the world the work of crazy, dull witted country folk.

[Martin Hash]

I always think old guys wearing baseball caps too narcissistic to show their baldness.

Did your eye ever fully heal? I read your thread about that incident the other day.

Nah, I'm a gimp for the rest of my life. Did I say "gimp," I meant "disabled." I'm gonna be gettin' my share of that ADA special treatment. In fact, I may sue anyone making the new "jazz hands" gesture because I'm feeling marginalized by that kind of microaggression.
Jazz Hands Story

p.s. Somebody owes me some goddamn money & an apology. Reparations too!