Trump's Economic Plan

[StCapps]

You think we are going to run out of a finite resource we recently started exploiting when we haven't run out of finite resources we've been exploiting for a lot longer that used to be the backbone of an industrial economy. I don't hear you fear mongering about peak coal, but back in the day before oil came along as a superior energy alternative to coal, I'm sure some chumps thought peak coal was thing too, but we innovated our way out that coming to pass and aren't in danger of running out of coal anytime soon. Yet I am suppose to be super worried that we run out of oil and nothing new will come along despite our current level of innovation vastly exceeding the rate of growth going on in the industrial revolution when we already did it before? Nah, I'm going to chill out and leave the freaking out about it, to you.

[ssu]

No. Peak oil occurs when demand exceeds potential supply. You can reach peak oil either through depletion or just rapidly increasing demand. We are doing both.

One of the weird things about peak oil is that it will seem like oil is plentiful right before it hits. We will be drilling and processing more oil in a single year than we did in multiple previous years. Everything will seem great. Then the news hits that supply isn't in any way catching up with demand. Futures markets will go crazy, and oil will increase by thousands of percent in a few days or weeks.

If you want to plan for peak oil, buy some decent oil stocks and stockpile gold and silver whenever their spot prices drop. Once peak oil hits, sell the oil and buy tangible assets. Get out of stocks and bonds altogether.

The problem is that nobody can really predict when this will happen, so doing that might not be terribly profitable unless you guess right within about five to ten years of the event. I sort of suspect it will happen in the 2030s or 2040s, but it's just a guess based on my feeling that terrible shit always happens at once, and that's about the same time as the demographic winter and probably climate change problems.


One thing you might pay attention to is how much gold the Saudi royal family and the other wealthy (noble) families in Saudi Arabia buy. If you see a consistent up-tick in their acquisition of gold, silver, and other tangible assets, then maybe it's about to happen..

No, champ, I said we could hit peak oil right now *IF* Asia were developed the same was as North America (which it obviously is not). The point being: peak oil is not a function of whether the oil runs out but, rather, a relationship between maximum supply and demand.

Some remarks here.

Let's not forget the absolute fundamentals that are reality, not just an idea: If demand exceeds supply, then there is the price mechanism to set the two again into balance. Hence Excess Demand will raise prices, which will a) make unconvential methods of oil production profitable, b) make alternative energy resources more competitive and c) lower demand with those who simply cannot afford the new higher price. Hence a new equilibrium is met.

So in a way the argument that Peak Oil will create a crisis that will crash societies and leaves us in some Mad Max-world things that people aren't as adaptive and resourceful as they have been earlier in history.

Just think about technological change. Here's some pictures to clarify it:

Here's Saudi Super light crude, the easiest and lowest price oil to produce there is in the planet:



Here's an oil shale rock:



Here's Canadian tar sands:



Yes, they look quite a bit different and they are. And so is the way they are processed to become nearly everything we need, not just the gas/diesel we put in our cars.

Hence the idea that with a +100 dollar barrel price nobody can get new production off and no alternative ways to produce energy exist and simply consumption has to fall simply assumes something has happened to our society that makes us totally different from earlier times.

As I've stated, Peak Oil is an event that takes long and will be somewhat unrecognizable. Most likely outcome is simply slow economic growth. Such as we are experiencing now compared to the 1950's or 1960's. Well, slow growth just sucks, it's not the event preppers are preparing for.

[C-Mag]

US Manufacturing Jumps to 33-Year High

http://www.financialsense.com/jill-misl ... -year-high

[adwinistrator]

Some remarks here.

Let's not forget the absolute fundamentals that are reality, not just an idea: If demand exceeds supply, then there is the price mechanism to set the two again into balance. Hence Excess Demand will raise prices, which will a) make unconvential methods of oil production profitable, b) make alternative energy resources more competitive and c) lower demand with those who simply cannot afford the new higher price. Hence a new equilibrium is met.

So in a way the argument that Peak Oil will create a crisis that will crash societies and leaves us in some Mad Max-world things that people aren't as adaptive and resourceful as they have been earlier in history.

...

Hence the idea that with a +100 dollar barrel price nobody can get new production off and no alternative ways to produce energy exist and simply consumption has to fall simply assumes something has happened to our society that makes us totally different from earlier times.

As I've stated, Peak Oil is an event that takes long and will be somewhat unrecognizable. Most likely outcome is simply slow economic growth. Such as we are experiencing now compared to the 1950's or 1960's. Well, slow growth just sucks, it's not the event preppers are preparing for.

The crisis occurs when the supply/demand problem reaches a level where people/business/government in certain poor/developing countries cannot afford oil/gas.

Transportation logistics in those areas will encounter short breakdowns, where food, medical supplies, and goods will be delayed.

When those breakdowns start getting longer and longer, people will start dying.

This will not affect the wealthier parts of the world as much, if at all, for quite some time. Understand though that millions of people could starve to death without the wealthier countries feeling the impact in a substantial way.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Everything is fine here. Buy moar stawks.

[apeman]

Shiller PE almost double the average.

[C-Mag]

Trump cuts US Debt by $12 Billion in his first month


http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02 ... rst-month/

[Speaker to Animals]

Are you bored of winning yet?

[C-Mag]

Are you bored of winning yet?

Not even frickin close !

[SuburbanFarmer]

Trump cuts US Debt by $12 Billion in his first month


http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02 ... rst-month/

LMFAO wow.. Total ignorance is kinda beautiful, in it's way.

For the initiated, this is measured by the US government selling slightly fewer bonds at auction during January.

For the uninitiated, what pray-tell would you say that Trump actually did in the first month that caused fewer bonds to be sold? Are we rich again?