North Korea News

User avatar
The Conservative
Posts: 14792
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:43 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by The Conservative » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:19 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:If he was suicidal, he wouldn't spend all his time desperately trying to fend off an internal putsch, killing off his potential challengers before they kill him, up to and including his own brother, so get real.

Survival instinct, is the driving force at the center of this regime, they have no ideology, other than self preservation. As such, they are far more vulnerable to deterrence than the average, some adversaries might actually risk it all for a cause, but the DPRK is at the bottom of the list that way.
Hitler wasn't suicidal either until it was too late. He thought he could win till near the end, then all hell broke loose on him. Sorry, but despots have a bad record of being rational.
#NotOneRedCent

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:24 pm

The Conservative wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:If he was suicidal, he wouldn't spend all his time desperately trying to fend off an internal putsch, killing off his potential challengers before they kill him, up to and including his own brother, so get real.

Survival instinct, is the driving force at the center of this regime, they have no ideology, other than self preservation. As such, they are far more vulnerable to deterrence than the average, some adversaries might actually risk it all for a cause, but the DPRK is at the bottom of the list that way.
Hitler wasn't suicidal either until it was too late. He thought he could win till near the end, then all hell broke loose on him. Sorry, but despots have a bad record of being rational.
Well, if the United States were to attack North Korea, and so threaten the survival of the regime, imminently, by invasion, then that is where they might go to the nuclear option, but for that they can just put a nuke in a truck or a railcar, they don't need an ICBM, none the less, the ICBM is not a first strike weapon, they're not going to launch it out of the blue and commit national seppuku without cause.

If you invoke Hitler, then you are invoking at the last moment when all else is lost, Soviets just blocks away, and in that case, the scenario becomes more realistic, but just launching a single ICBM out of the blue, irrational first strike, that's not a realistic scenario.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
StCapps
Posts: 16879
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:59 am
Location: Hamilton, Ontario

Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:26 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:If he was suicidal, he wouldn't spend all his time desperately trying to fend off an internal putsch, killing off his potential challengers before they kill him, up to and including his own brother, so get real.

Survival instinct, is the driving force at the center of this regime, they have no ideology, other than self preservation. As such, they are far more vulnerable to deterrence than the average, some adversaries might actually risk it all for a cause, but the DPRK is at the bottom of the list that way.

It's really not that complex, this regime has made the same calculation that all despotic regimes have made; the United States won't mess with you if you have nuclear weapons, even if you only have a handful of them, the nuclear weapon is the deterrent you need to keep the Americans at bay, if you don't have nuclear weapons, then there is a possibility of the United States attempting to force a regime change, ergo, nuclear weapons are a must, to ensure self preservation.
By constantly saber rattling they ensure the American public are constantly reminded that they have nukes as well, when the media goes nuts with their inevitable crazy commie narrative, hence why NK goes to that well so often, has nothing to do with insanity it's entirely rational, they just go too far sometimes trying to maximize their returns on that tactic. Suicidal? I think not, they just want the US to think they are because it's to their advantage.
Last edited by StCapps on Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
*yip*

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:29 pm

To invoke Kim as a Hitler who would commit suicide by first strike against the United States, is like saying Hitler would have commited suicide on 2 September 1939, which, is silly, clearly. If he's Hitler, he's going to be just as focussed on self preservation as Hitler was, which, for most of the war, Hitler was totally obessed with.

I mean, yeah, at the very end, when he knew it was over, Hitler killed himself, to avoid capture, but right up until that moment, even just days before, Hitler was desperately clinging to the hope the he could somehow turn the tide, he wasn't suicidal, until he was facing a Soviet Kommisar within just a block of his HQ.

I don't actually buy Fat Boy Kim as being as hardcore as Hitler, I think Kim would do the same thing as Saddam Hussien, which is make a run for it.

America builds these guys up to be something they're not, once you find Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden, see them up close without all the farcical media hype, they turn out to be pathetic losers and total cowards, not Hitlers at all, calling them Hitler's, is actually an insult to Hitler.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
The Conservative
Posts: 14792
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:43 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by The Conservative » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:46 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
The Conservative wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:If he was suicidal, he wouldn't spend all his time desperately trying to fend off an internal putsch, killing off his potential challengers before they kill him, up to and including his own brother, so get real.

Survival instinct, is the driving force at the center of this regime, they have no ideology, other than self preservation. As such, they are far more vulnerable to deterrence than the average, some adversaries might actually risk it all for a cause, but the DPRK is at the bottom of the list that way.
Hitler wasn't suicidal either until it was too late. He thought he could win till near the end, then all hell broke loose on him. Sorry, but despots have a bad record of being rational.
Well, if the United States were to attack North Korea, and so threaten the survival of the regime, imminently, by invasion, then that is where they might go to the nuclear option, but for that they can just put a nuke in a truck or a railcar, they don't need an ICBM, none the less, the ICBM is not a first strike weapon, they're not going to launch it out of the blue and commit national seppuku without cause.

If you invoke Hitler, then you are invoking at the last moment when all else is lost, Soviets just blocks away, and in that case, the scenario becomes more realistic, but just launching a single ICBM out of the blue, irrational first strike, that's not a realistic scenario.
Hitler is the best example of not seeming suicidal at first... and you are right, I believe that Un is the same, same mentality, etc... he just needs a reason, and that Aircraft Carrier is a big one in my eyes...
#NotOneRedCent

User avatar
TheOneX
Posts: 1291
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:16 pm

Re: North Korea News

Post by TheOneX » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:49 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:America builds these guys up to be something they're not, once you find Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden, see them up close without all the farcical media hype, they turn out to be pathetic losers and total cowards, not Hitlers at all, calling them Hitler's, is actually an insult to Hitler.

Saddam Hussein seems like a more apt comparison to me too.

User avatar
StCapps
Posts: 16879
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:59 am
Location: Hamilton, Ontario

Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:52 pm

TheOneX wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:America builds these guys up to be something they're not, once you find Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden, see them up close without all the farcical media hype, they turn out to be pathetic losers and total cowards, not Hitlers at all, calling them Hitler's, is actually an insult to Hitler.

Saddam Hussein seems like a more apt comparison to me too.
Far more apt. Also this way we don't insult Hitler, we wouldn't want to do that.
*yip*

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:53 pm

The Conservative wrote:Hitler is the best example of not seeming suicidal at first... and you are right, I believe that Un is the same, same mentality, etc... he just needs a reason, and that Aircraft Carrier is a big one in my eyes...
I judge the NK's to be sufficiently deterred, and the nuclear deterrent that they are building is like something out of the fifties, liquid fueled booster stage, which takes several hours to prepare for launch, which gives the NCA more than enough of a window for preemptive counterforce.

As for nuking a US carrier strike group out of the blue, they couldn't do that with an ICBM, could only really be done by nuclear torpedo, but not much you can do about that, until they actually do it, and in the end, there's plenty more aircraft carriers where that one came from.
Last edited by Smitty-48 on Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
The Conservative
Posts: 14792
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:43 am

Re: North Korea News

Post by The Conservative » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:54 pm

TheOneX wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:America builds these guys up to be something they're not, once you find Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden, see them up close without all the farcical media hype, they turn out to be pathetic losers and total cowards, not Hitlers at all, calling them Hitler's, is actually an insult to Hitler.

Saddam Hussein seems like a more apt comparison to me too.
Except Saddam Hussein wasn't suicidal, even after the fact.
#NotOneRedCent

User avatar
StCapps
Posts: 16879
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:59 am
Location: Hamilton, Ontario

Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:56 pm

The Conservative wrote:
TheOneX wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:America builds these guys up to be something they're not, once you find Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden, see them up close without all the farcical media hype, they turn out to be pathetic losers and total cowards, not Hitlers at all, calling them Hitler's, is actually an insult to Hitler.

Saddam Hussein seems like a more apt comparison to me too.
Except Saddam Hussein wasn't suicidal, even after the fact.
Neither is Fat Boy Kim. Reports of him being crazy have been greatly exaggerated by media hype, not buying the irrational actor theory.
*yip*