Meanwhile in Ukraine

[C-Mag]

I really want my government to drop the records and show we above board on this.

(j/k Carlus, I'm just making a funny about whether (1.) dropping the records and (2.) showing we are above board can both happen at the same time.)

Well played

[Smitty-48]

lots of ex-British Army & American civilian volunteers flowing into Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

Ukrainian SOF engaging Russian tanks at Mykolaiv airport, with Soviet ATGM

looks like 9M113 Konkurs NATO Reporting Name AT-5 Spandrel, SACLOS wire guided to 4000m

[Smitty-48]

Xi Jinping has released a statement on the war in Ukraine

"China calls for maximum restraint in Ukraine"

"China is pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe"

doesn't sound like an endorsement

China is getting nervous, looking for the exits

[Smitty-48]

this was a pretty good summary as of day 11

100,000 Ukrainians have returned from abroad to fight for Ukraine

it is estimated that Ukraine now possesses as many as 25,000 anti armor weapons

instant history

[Smitty-48]

another day has passed where there has been no open source signs of Russian progress

whatever OSINT maps of the conflict zone that are available

don't show any significant movement at all from a week ago

near as I can tell, the Russians are pretty much stuck where they are

there is no signs they are doing much other than artillery bombardment & air strikes against civilians

the trajectory can change quickly of course

but the trajectory this is on currently,

is partial occupation by Russia,

pretty much where they are right now

then a Ukrainian counter attack force starts to build up in the northwest of the country near Poland

[SuburbanFarmer]

It’s beginning to look incompetent enough to be intentional…

[Smitty-48]

It’s beginning to look incompetent enough to be intentional…

how so ?

what's the angle ?

[Smitty-48]

this doesn't look intentional to me

this just looks like a classic Russian military disaster

like the Russo-Japanese War

or the Winter War in Finland

Russian military history is the history of ill thought out military disasters

and imperial adventure gone wrong

here's some footage of the Ukrainians ambushing a Russian convoy

they are using RPG-7 against the Russian vehicles

but the Ukrainians appear to be armed with AR15's, which are way better than AK's

they are already wearing NATO Multicam, carrying AR's, launching Javelin & NLAW

they are becoming more NATO like by the day

[Smitty-48]

the thing to understand here

is that this is NOT a Cold War proxy war

Russia invaded the central front in Europe

then threatened NATO with nuclear war

and NATO backed down

so that is not proxy, that was Russia backing NATO down

but now NATO has Zelensky rallying the troops

so suddenly that has shifted the ground under Ivan Rumsfeld's feet

because Ukraine is becoming more than a proxy now,

Ukraine is being transformed on the fly into a de facto NATO military power

so Article V is academic at this point

this has already escalated beyond proxy war

into a real deal NATO v Russia theater war, opening phases of

and again, it's a 2020's Ukrainian force fighting a 1980's Russian force

so Russia has already begun to lose the war