Guess the MegaTons of This Nuke

[Speaker to Animals]

Yeah, it would be a real shame if we lost about a fifth of our marxists in a flash of light.

[Smitty-48]

Also bear in mind, the North Korean test bombs are deliberately limited in yield, because they are testing them underground in North Korea, they don't have a Bikini Atoll to test these things on, so the test bombs are going to be much smaller than what they are capable of, those bombs are just to prove the design and manufacturing process, once they know that it works, they can make bombs which are much, much bigger in terms of yield.

Miniaturization is hard, megatons are easy; it's much easier to scale up than it is to scale down.

If they're not going to miniaturize, i.e. MIRV's, then all they need is a big missile; enter Hwasong-15.

[DrYouth]

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt= ... ft=0&zm=13

Looks worse doesn't it.

[Smitty-48]

The bomb which I believe the North Koreans are ultimately building towards, is a Chinese design, the Dong Feng-5, you can find it in the preselect list, just scroll down.

That, I would submit, is the ultimate objective here, it's going to take a few years, but not that many, because it's not a new bomb, it's not a high tech bomb, but it's likely the bomb they are modelling on, because the Chinese design is actually one of the simplest, it's not miniaturized, it's not MIRV'd, big bomb, big missile, right out of the 1960's.

So, airburst over Capitol Hill in Seattle, I get an effects radius which goes from Des Moines to Lynnwood, with 515,250 killed, 817,950 wounded.

They're going through the stages everybody else went through, decades ago, and at this point, they can't be that far away from the 1960's, they're at about 1952 right now.

If they had an Eniwetok to test on, I have no doubt they could do Ivy Mike, Ivy Mike is easy, and that's 10 megatons.

[Smitty-48]

Now, see, that there, Ivy Mike, that was using the big tank of liquid hydrogen, that's why that was easy, it did take America a few more years after that, to get to deuterium capsules so that could be mounted on a missile.

But the North Koreans already have deuterium capsule, so they're already there, it's just a question of how big a missile do they have then, and based on Hwasong-15, they're heading towards the Chinese DF-5, because this is the North Koreans we're talking about, they are going to want the biggest scariest bomb they can get.

[Zlaxer]

I’m seeing North Korea rated for only having 50 Kiloton capability - or .05 megaton.

If the pic shows 10 to 20 megaton blast then NK must only be good for wiping out a state fair at this point, eh?

0.5 megatons is 500 kts, not 50 kts. Which is the estimated yield for the NK bomb they last detonated.

50 kts would not produce 5.8 on the Richter scale, depending how deep it was, that's 500 kts easily.

That's still a big bomb, the most powerful warhead in the current US arsenal is the W87 at a maximum yield of 475 kilotons, more than enough to wipe a major city off the map.

Thing is, once you've mastered the basic design, it's not hard to boost it, particularly if you're not using MIRV's, so if you can make a 500 kt hydrogen bomb, 5 megatons is easily within reach from there.

US places emphasis on accuracy as opposed to yield - that's why Ruski bombs are bigger.....how accurate are DPRK rockets ?

Dprk never fire one at us mainland - no more dprk if they do....

Much more worried about us urnanium ruskies mined....good for framing/starting shit wiTh.

[Smitty-48]

US places emphasis on accuracy as opposed to yield - that's why Ruski bombs are bigger.....how accurate are DPRK rockets ?

The Rooskies caught up, so they go for accuracy now too, they don't have the big bombs anymore neither. But the North Koreans will, because they are not accurate, so just like the Rooskies back in the 1960's, they have to go big.

Dprk never fire one at us mainland - no more dprk if they do....

In a crisis, they will be on such a precarious hair trigger, without any comprehensive early warning, that they will most likely launch by mistake, thinking that the US is preempting them even when it isn't.

In order to be safe, in order to have the precision to not launch on false warning, you need early warning as to what the Americans are doing, and when this comes to a Korean Missile Crisis, the North Koreans will be flying blind, paranoid, and out of control, in the fog of war.

All your assumptions are based on them being the Soviets, but they're not, they don't have that sort of control over what they are unleashing, and even the Soviets came a cunt hair away from launching by mistake, in 1983. Hell, even America did too, in 1979.

Once this gets wound up to a crisis at the brink, very high chance of launch on false warning, because they will be operating with practically no warning at all, under threat of imminent American counterforce at any moment.

They do believe that the US would launch a counterforce, as the US just might, because unlike you, the Pentagon knows what I know, and so they well know that this is not the Soviets, it's a totally different animal, much more out of control, a danger to itself and others, which is why they are preparing a counterforce option, so I wouldn't even assume that the North Koreans are going to be the ones who shoot first.

Nuclear deterrents are like attack dogs, it's not a question of telling them to attack, it's a question of holding on to the leash with all your might to keep them from attacking each other, and when the National Command Authority is confronted with the question; "do you want to lose 200 million killed, or 2 million killed?" the dogs will be at the end of the leash then, boychik.

Rational arbitrage keeps the public calm, but the reality of a nuclear confrontation at the brink, is that it really just comes down to blind luck, you either get lucky or you don't, and the more times you go to the well, the more you are courting your luck running out.

[heydaralon]

US places emphasis on accuracy as opposed to yield - that's why Ruski bombs are bigger.....how accurate are DPRK rockets ?

The Rooskies caught up, so they go for accuracy now too, they don't have the big bombs anymore neither. But the North Koreans will, because they are not accurate, so just like the Rooskies back in the 1960's, they have to go big.

Dprk never fire one at us mainland - no more dprk if they do....

In a crisis, they will be on such a precarious hair trigger, without any comprehensive early warning, that they will most likely launch by mistake, thinking that the US is preempting them even when it isn't.

In order to be safe, in order to have the precision to not launch on false warning, you need early warning as to what the Americans are doing, and when this comes to a Korean Missile Crisis, the North Koreans will be flying blind, paranoid, and out of control, in the fog of war.

All your assumptions are based on them being the Soviets, but they're not, they don't have that sort of control over what they are unleashing, and even the Soviets came a cunt hair away from launching by mistake, in 1983. Hell, even America did too, in 1979.

Once this gets wound up to a crisis at the brink, very high chance of launch on false warning, because they will be operating with practically no warning at all, under threat of imminent American counterforce at any moment.

They do believe that the US would launch a counterforce, as the US just might, because unlike you, the Pentagon knows what I know, and so they well know that this is not the Soviets, it's a totally different animal, much more out of control, a danger to itself and others, which is why they are preparing a counterforce option, so I wouldn't even assume that the North Koreans are going to be the ones who shoot first.

Nuclear deterrents are like attack dogs, it's not a question of telling them to attack, it's a question of holding on to the leash with all your might to keep them from attacking each other, and when the National Command Authority is confronted with the question; "do you want to lose 200 million killed, or 2 million killed?" the dogs will be at the end of the leash then, boychik.

Rational arbitrage keeps the public calm, but the reality of a nuclear confrontation at the brink, is that it really just comes down to blind luck, you either get lucky or you don't, and the more times you go to the well, the more you are courting your luck running out.

I bet nothing will happen. There aint a scenario where DPRK could win in an exchange. They are a paper tiger.

[Smitty-48]

I put no faith in rational arbitrage, as it pertains to war, if rational arbitrage was really a factor, there wouldn't be any wars at all.

The Americans are calling the North Koreans a paper tiger, the North Koreans are calling the Americans a paper tiger, both sides are assuming that the other is going to back down, and that is the very thing, which nuclear wars will be made of.

[Hastur]

I was told the origin of the vault boy in fallout doing the thing with his thumb was that children were taught that if the thumb covered the mushroom cloud they were at a safe distance from the blast. Any truth to that?