GrumpyCatFace wrote:I don't doubt the results of the study - but the interpretation is ridiculous.DBTrek wrote:Say wha?GrumpyCatFace wrote:There is no evidence presented showing causality, only correlation - as is typical in hack economic articles. I feel no need to dignify it with a detailed data-driven retort.
There's a citation about the study from the Jeff Bezos owned, highly anti-Trump, Washington Post.The evidence is in “The Millennial Success Sequence” published by the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for Family Studies and written by Wendy Wang of the IFS and W. Bradford Wilcox of the University of Virginia and AEI.
The success sequence, previously suggested in research by, among others, Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill of the Brookings Institution, is this: First get at least a high school diploma, then get a job, then get married, and only then have children.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... e34765328f
What is your issue with the data?
'Graduate, work, marry, kids' = not poor.
Do you suppose that poor people have more or less of that path available to them? Did they control for the family economic status at birth? Location? Ethnicity? (not because white people are 'better', but they have different influences, no matter what)
For most men, the mistake was in choosing a poor example of a woman to marry. That's his mistake, but the rest of it was the woman and the state.
But for the most part, this is exactly what leads towards poverty. Sex outside of marriage leads to pregnancy. Single motherhood is the worst possible family unit other than (I suppose) being raised by dogs in wilderness. Our government and legal system has created enormous incentives to fuel the growth of single mother households and to alienate fathers (for child support, which the state profits from as well). They even create welfare programs that penalize women who stay with the father of their children.
I think it's fallacious to argue that you can do those things and automatically not be poor, but it's pretty accurate to state that if you don't do those things, you are very likely to be poor. Or, if your wife decides to do those things without your consent, you are going to be poor and your children will be adversely affected for the rest of their lives.
We have to stop subsidizing and encouraging the ruin of families. Stop pretending like single mothers are brave or in any way laudable for what they have done. They fucked up. Their children pay the consequences for their poor choices. Stop incentivizing divorce with child support, alimony, and perverse tax/welfare policies. Stop creating disincentives to get married, including skyrocketing tuition for college degrees that are necessary now to get into the middle class, which in turn leave people in crushing debt, while the government facilitates the offshoring of jobs and the importation of millions of immigrants to glut labor markets.
It's true that there are issues of personal moral failings, bad decisions, and so forth. God knows I fucked up by marrying a chick with borderline personality disorder. That's on me. But the incentives the state creates to destroy marriages is a much bigger issue. So is the way welfare is setup. So is the way our society now forces people to wait very long to have children, if at all, because of huge debts incurred just so you don't lose your place in the economic hierarchy (i.e. fall from the middle class to the working poor, which is all to easy nowadays).