Cut the Bull Shit. What would war with North Korea look like?

[BjornP]

I tire of these estimates of "millions" instantly dead via artillery fire. Artillery is simply not that effective, unless those people are standing out in the open for days.

I'd imagine the actual casualties to be around 20% of the projections, at most. NK meanwhile, would be paved within a few days. The only factor that matters here whatsoever, and the only reason that we haven't done it for 60 years, .

You realize that artillery can destroy walls, too, right? Buildings with people in it? And that civilians may start to scramble after the first barrage, but they will be lucky to have reached cover by the fourth?

[Smitty-48]

Gonna have to agree with Grumpy on this, while the total artillery weapons for the entire KPA, including every obsolete piece of junk they have in storage, is listed in the tens of thousands, the number of actual tubes targeting Soeul specifically is more like 700. "Millions" is hyperbole ad absurdum, even worst case scenario, is in the tens of thousands. It would take time for the population to take shelter and/or flee, but the NK's could bombard the place for weeks and still not kill millions, and the ROK has all the KPA positions presighted, so the actual bombardment would be hours, days at most, not weeks, before most of the NK guns were silenced.

There would be the initial cathcing people by surprise out in the open effect, that's where most of the casualties would be suffered, but it will be down to a trickle in a matter of hours. The have basements, they have bomb shelters, and they have a very deeply dug subway system, the NK's could cause a lot of mayhem, but it wouldn't be anything as severe as these silly over the top breathless handwringing estimates claim.

The NK's are not ten feet tall, not even close, the net result of any KPA bombardment of Souel would be NK Highway of Death, they would get pummeled, it would get ugly, and it wouldn't take that long.

[Smitty-48]

That being said, there are other things the NK's could do to cause mayhem, straight over the DMZ is bad ju-ju and they know it, they're not so dumb to just provide a target rich enviroment to ROK counterbattery fires, the NK's are far more likely to launch an assymetrical and unconventional operation, such as a high tempo hybrid paramilitary state run terrorism and sabotage campaign.

World War Two style is obsolete, nobody does that anymore, because not only will they lose, but in order to cause mass casualties and mayhem, they don't need to. Moreover, a grey area assymetrical and unconventional operation, is exponentially harder for military forces to come to grips with and end decisively by force.

The NK's have no hope of prevailing by conventional force, they would be playing for time and a settlement on the best terms, which would mean dragging things out and rendering Souel severely disrupted, persistently, without having to level it, they could achieve their aims without firing a single artillery shell, for their military to achieve their political objectives, truck bombs and the like would be much more effective.

Do you really want to invade North Korea? No? OK then, so they have all the time in the world to cause mayhem, assymetically, and you need that to stop, relatively soon, so how long before you come to the table to sue for peace?

Welcome to Hybrid Warfare in the 21st century, assymetrical, unconventional, grey area, and good luck putting a stop to that by conventional force, in the 5th Generation, all that military kit you bought is basically useless.

If all the NK's wanted to do was level Souel and kill millions, at the risk of their entire regime, they could do that in five minutes, with a nuke, who needs artillery? 10,000 unconventional forces operating covertly to cause mayhem behind the lines, turning South Korea's delicate infrastructure against it? That on the other hand, could win them a war, without even firing their rifles.

Is their objective really to invade and occupy the ROK by conventional military force? No? Ok then, once engaged in hostilities, what point would there be in trying to level Soeul by conventional means? None? How bout this then; In order to force a capitulation and terms favourable to the North, driving a wedge between the ROK and the Americans, would they even use any conventional military force at all?

My guess is; since assymetrical, unconventional, hybrid, paramilitary and covert, in the grey area, would be the expentionally more difficult threat to come to grips with, and almost impossible to end decisively by military force, and therefore the most likely to force a South Korean de facto capitulation; that's what they would do, while holding the nukes in their hip pocket, making an all out retaliation against the North a non starter.

They can run amok, causing mayhem with impunity, grinding the ROK to a practical halt, and the ROK cannot retaliate decisively against them, nor bring these operations to a halt decisively neither, short of suing for peace; how long do the ROK's last, before the Sunshine Liberals in the South are ready to capitulate to the NK's terms? Weeks? Months? I'd say weeks.

What could America do about it? Not much, America is not going to risk a nuclear war, and America can't force the Sunshine Liberals in the South to do anything or not do anything, if you try to impose on them, they'll just ignore you and do it anyways, it could actually be America, encouraging them to just sue for terms, so America doesn't get dragged any deeper into the quagmire than it wants to, which is probably nowhere near as far as the NK's would be willing to take it.

All that firepower stacked up on the DMZ? It's a big dog n' pony show, the NK's could just bypass it, and go straight for the population and infrastructure in the South, and not only would that giant conventional military be more a hinderance than a help, it's actually just a big juicy target for assymetrical attack, and almost entirely defenseless against it.

You gonna manuever your main battle tank to fight the truck bomb? Oh yeah? Which truck is it? Is it that truck? Is it this truck? Maybe that one? Fuck there's a lotta trucks here in South Korea, and they all look the same.

[ssu]

Secretary of Defence Mattis on North Korea, describes what war would be like with North Korea. (From May 28th this year)

[SuburbanFarmer]

"What is the red line? There isnt one".

This will go on until china decides they've had enough.

And there is no threat to America, unless he's talking about some of our thousands of military bases.

[ssu]

"What is the red line? There isnt one".

This will go on until china decides they've had enough.

And there is no threat to America, unless he's talking about some of our thousands of military bases.

Why do you think there will come a time that China has had enough??? North Korea isn't a threat to them.

The only true possibility of a war in the Korean Peninsula is if some whacko Washington hawks come up with a "Window of Opportunity" and get the President to believe in such hallucination that the North Korean ICBM capability can be destroyed and put back a decade with a "surgical strike". That they can make it so "surgical" that North Korea cannot respond. And that this has to be done before the "window of opportunity" is lost (as North Korea builds more missiles).

Naturally that kind of horseshit the present generals and some Mattis won't (hopefully) believe. But with the "Yesmen" kind of generals, who believe it's possible, it could be possible.

Yet I don't think that will happen.

[StCapps]

If Trump goes to war with North Korea they will have to move the Olympics, which means the NHL might wise up and go after all once they move it? Trump could help Canada win another gold medal in hockey? What is the Secret President of Canada waiting for?! Save hockey from itself Donald, you're our only hope. Seriously fuck North Korea, especially Pyongyang.

[Speaker to Animals]

Hopefully the Russians defeat you guys.

[StCapps]

Hopefully the Russians defeat you guys.

They might, if all of our good players stay at home.


Save us Donald, bomb that Olympic site, fuck the Russians, they don't deserve that medal.
#bombpyong

[SuburbanFarmer]

"What is the red line? There isnt one".

This will go on until china decides they've had enough.

And there is no threat to America, unless he's talking about some of our thousands of military bases.

Why do you think there will come a time that China has had enough??? North Korea isn't a threat to them.

The only true possibility of a war in the Korean Peninsula is if some whacko Washington hawks come up with a "Window of Opportunity" and get the President to believe in such hallucination that the North Korean ICBM capability can be destroyed and put back a decade with a "surgical strike". That they can make it so "surgical" that North Korea cannot respond. And that this has to be done before the "window of opportunity" is lost (as North Korea builds more missiles).

Naturally that kind of horseshit the present generals and some Mattis won't (hopefully) believe. But with the "Yesmen" kind of generals, who believe it's possible, it could be possible.

Yet I don't think that will happen.

Agree. China will never "have had enough" - I was being a bit vague, I realize.
NK is our standby boogeyman for the forseeable future whenever the fear of Arabs starts to wane. Gotta prod the herd, to keep them sweet taxes rolling in to the MIC.