CS315 - War on a Whim?

[SuburbanFarmer]

I'm starting to think that Trump is just running interference for Ivanka/Pence/whoever-is-actually-running-shit.
He's too much of a clown to be real.

Oh he's real. You just didn't realize that a clown could be this effective politically and are having trouble coming to terms with the fact that not acting hyper serious all the time as a politician simply isn't the automatic political suicide that you assumed it was.

effective at what, exactly?

[StCapps]

I'm starting to think that Trump is just running interference for Ivanka/Pence/whoever-is-actually-running-shit.
He's too much of a clown to be real.

Oh he's real. You just didn't realize that a clown could be this effective politically and are having trouble coming to terms with the fact that not acting hyper serious all the time as a politician simply isn't the automatic political suicide that you assumed it was.

effective at what, exactly?

Winning.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Oh he's real. You just didn't realize that a clown could be this effective politically and are having trouble coming to terms with the fact that not acting hyper serious all the time as a politician simply isn't the automatic political suicide that you assumed it was.

effective at what, exactly?

Winning.

That rings true. But now what.

[StCapps]

That rings true. But now what.

Keep ignoring facts that don't help you, and do so in an entertaining way, that's Trump's plan.

[adwinistrator]

Carlin's analysis of the North Korean position is all wrong, when he says "put yourself in the North Korean's shoes", Carlin actually projects a very un-North Korean view of things.

First of all, the North Koreans do not feel threatened by the United States, the North Koreans view the United States as being a "Paper Tiger" (their words), in that, if the United States was going to do something about North Korea, it would have done it a long time ago, so the North Koreans are supremely confident that the United States is not going to attack them, they view all Americans threats to take military action as bluffing.

The actual North Korean position; is to win the Korean War and impose re-unification of the Peninsula under North Korean rule. They have had a plan to do this, dating back to the 1980s, and they are quite clearly continuing to implement their long term plan, if you're not aware of the North Korean reunification plan, it is as follows;

1. Acquire thermonuclear weapons (hydrogen bombs)

2. Acquire the capability to strike the United States with thermonuclear weapons (ICBM's)

3. Threaten to strike the United States with thermonuclear weapons, and this is where the North Koreans assert the phase which they call "the failure of will", in that the United States will not risk a nuclear war with North Korea, and so will instead negotiate. Which leads to...

4. Peace agreement to end the Korean War, in which US forces are withdrawn from Korea. followed by...

5. North and South Korea enter into a Confederation, at which point, without the United States in the way, the North Koreans will impose their will incrementally on the South, by coercive means, using the threat of military force as the lever to induce the South to capitulate over time, in order avoid a war.

The North Koreans are not threatening South Korea with nuclear weapons and do not intend to, because they do not believe that it would be necessary to gain compliance from the South Koreans, the mere threat of conventional war is entirely sufficient to cow the South Koreans, the nuclear weapons are solely intended to threaten the United States, in order to force the United States to the negotiating table for the purposes of selling the South Koreans down the river, at which point North Korea will be in a position to impose its will on the Peninsula, without having to fight a war at all.

The Pentagon, for one, takes the North Koreans at their word, and upon the North Koreans acquiring the capability to strike the CONUS with thermoclear weapons, is expecting what the North Koreans refer to as the "territorial threat" phase, and that is what has them worried, and is in fact what they are preparing for. They have no doubt that the North Koreans will acquire the capability eventually, it is simply a matter of time.

This long predates the Trump Administration, this is a forty year plan which the North Koreans are executing, each Administration has simply inhereted it, in whatever phase it was in, over time.

When you hear people in Washington refer to the situation as a "Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion", this is what they are referring to.

Bear in mind, the North Koreans have a two track narrative, there is an "outer track" which they release to the outside world, wherein they assert the nuclear weapons to be defensive in nature, and then they have an "inner track", which they only discuss amongst themselves, wherein the nuclear weapons are intended as a lever for winning the Korean War.

Quality post Smitty, thanks for taking the time.

I'm sure North Korea's long term plan is much more detailed than what you've laid out, but I have a few points I wanted to discuss.

Peace agreement to end the Korean War, in which US forces are withdrawn from Korea.

Do you mean that North Korea would be able to force South Korea into signing a peace treaty that has "remove US forces" as a condition? I can't see us leaving South Korea unless they tell us to, I mean we're still in Germany and Japan.

Do you think South Korea would be willing to sign a peace treaty with that kind of condition? They know they'd basically be agreeing to remove all their defenses and basically surrendering.

Threaten to strike the United States with thermonuclear weapons, and this is where the North Koreans assert the phase which they call "the failure of will", in that the United States will not risk a nuclear war with North Korea, and so will instead negotiate.

I agree that the US does not have the will to do an all out intervention, let alone nuclear war, but I wonder if this is only a temporarily exploitable circumstance. Between the moment North Korea has the (capable) ICBM technology to risk the threat, and the moment the US is confident enough in it's anti-ballistic missile technology. Once the US's ABS systems can negate the North Korean's ICBM technology, they lose that threat.

[Smitty-48]

The North Koreans seek to leverage the South Korean Left, which is basically just liberals, they're not Leftists, but compared to the South Korean Right, they are the Left. The thing about the South Korean Left, is that they are willing to just cave to the North Koreans, in order to keep the peace, Sunshine Policy; basically give the North Koreans what they want, in order to avoid a war, the South Korean Left doesn't care that much about sovereignty, what they care about is just keeping things cushy in South Korea.

The North Koreans just want the Americans out, because they believe that once the Americans are out, the South Koreans will just go along to get along. Without the Americans backing them up, essentially being willing to fight the war for the South Koreans by bombing the North into the stone age, the North Koreans will be able to impose their will. Slowly, over time, the South Koreans will capitulate to the North on everything the North wants, so long as the South Korean liberal elites can maintain their cushy lifestyles.

The objective end state for the North Koreans, is what they call a "Confederation", wherein the North would be able to dominate the South, make the South play ball, simply by Escalation Dominance, which, if you've been paying attention, they already do to a large degree, the only thing that keeps the South from caving into the North, is the South Korean Right, but the only thing propping the South Korean Right up, is the Americans, if the Americans go away, the South Korean Right would not be able to convince the people in the South to sacrifice Soeul et. al. on the alter of soverteignty, they would elect the Left and it's Sunshine Policy, which is really just a euphemism for captiluation to the North Korean's terms.

So the North Korean's feel that they have this war won, for all intents and purposes, except for the Americans standing in the way, so the key is, get the Americans out of the way. But how? How do you get the Americans to withdraw? What leverage can be asserted over the Americans, which would cause them to withderaw from the Peninsula and sell the South Korean Right down the river in the process?

The North Korean answer, begun way back in the eighties, was that the North Koreans needed the hydrogen bomb and ICBM to leverage the Americans to the table for a withdrawal. They've been working on this for literally decades, once they have the Thermonuclear ICBM's, they plan to use them in a so called "territorial threat" against the CONUS, at which point, they expect the Americans will sue for peace, the NK's will trade the ICBMs for American withdrawal.

The Americans will impose the "peace" on the South, the peace treaty will be a fig leaf to allow the Americans to withdraw, at which point, the South Korean Left will begin to cave into the North Korean's terms, one by one, nary a shot fired.

Or so the North Korean's believe, but I do take them at their words, this is what they believe and this is their plan, whether the Americans actually sue for peace, once threatened with a Thermonuclear ICBM attack, we'll just have to find out, when the North Koreans complete their ICBM program, which, is really just a matter of time, they will get it right, they are getting close all the time, each missile failure, is actually a lesson learned, it's actually the failed tests in a missile program, where you learn what you need to know to make it work.

[StCapps]

The North Korean answer, begun way back in the eighties, was that the North Koreans needed the hydrogen bomb and ICBM to leverage the Americans to the table for a withdrawal. They've been working on this for literally decades, once they have the Thermonuclear ICBM's, they plan to use them in a so called "territorial threat" against the CONUS, at which point, they expect the Americans will sue for peace, the NK's will trade the ICBMs for American withdrawal.

They will? What's to stop the US from coming back to South Korea someday after the North gives up the nukes?

[Smitty-48]

The North Korean answer, begun way back in the eighties, was that the North Koreans needed the hydrogen bomb and ICBM to leverage the Americans to the table for a withdrawal. They've been working on this for literally decades, once they have the Thermonuclear ICBM's, they plan to use them in a so called "territorial threat" against the CONUS, at which point, they expect the Americans will sue for peace, the NK's will trade the ICBMs for American withdrawal.

They will? What's to stop the US from coming back to South Korea someday after the North gives up the nukes?

They wont give up the nukes, just the ICBM's. They'll maintain a deterrent, it just won't be maintained on a hair trigger to strike the CONUS with ICBMs.

[StCapps]

They wont give up the nukes, just the ICBM's.

Sounds like a good long term plan that is coming along nicely. What's is the South Korean Right's Plan to try and prevent them from achieving such negotiation leverage on the Peninsula?

[Smitty-48]

They wont give up the nukes, just the ICBM's.

Sounds like a good plan. What's the South Korean Right's counter strategy to prevent this?

Panic. They are panicking, because the thing is, the North Koreans don't actually intend to invade the South once the Americans withdraw, because they don't have to, without the Americans around anymore, they can coerce the South without having to invade, so once the Americans leave, they ain't coming back, if the North's ICBM's for Peace plan works, the South Korean Right is going to be at the mercy of the North, by proxy through the South Korean Left, the South Korean Right will be repressed, by their own government, on behalf of the North, just to keep the peace.