NHL 2017 -Official Discussion Thread

[Smitty-48]

lol Marleau is basically done. The wheels are coming off and Toronto over paid him, $6,250,000 per year for the next three years for a 40 point forward that will be 38 before the season starts. Yikes!

Smitty still thinks it's 2006 or 2007.

That would explain a lot.

lol. Why ya'll gotta be haters? Why can't you just let me enjoy my summer?

The alternative UFA's they were looking at were Justin Williams and Scott Hartnell, neither of which I am fan of, I'm a Marleau fan, I'd rather have Marleau, of the available UFA's, if Babs wants Marleau, that's fine by me.

The Leafs are going to have to trade a forward to get a D, and it's not going to be the forward that the fans want them to trade, nobody wants JVR, nobody wants Tyler Bozak, and I don't blame them, cause neither of them plays in their own zone, it's gonna be Connor Brown, that's who the other GM's want, so they have to replace Connor Brown in the near term, Patrick Marleau just needs to slot into Connor Brown's minutes, I think he's got enough left in the tank for that.

I like Kasperi Kapanen, but he's not ready, I like Josh Leivo, but he doesn't skate better at 22 than Marleau skates at 38, people can say "save the cap room", but that's only because they think there's something else out there which is better, but there's not, there's nothing else on the market and there's not going to be.

In terms of D, they might be able to get Chris Tanev out of Vancouver, but that would cost both Connor Brown and Kasperi Kapanen and maybe Josh Leivo too, then who do they replace them with? Justin Williams? Scott Hartnell? I'd rather have Marleau.

The market rate for a top 4 RHD is two first round picks, the Leafs don't want to give up two, so Brown and Kapanen would have to go into the fire instead, then they lose JVR at the end of the season, who is gonna fill that void for two to three years? UFA wise, there's nothing on the market, even next summer there's nothing on the market, there were five teams in on Patrick Marleau, for a reason, Dallas leading the pack, and their plan B was Radulov, but I don't want Radulov anywhere near my team, and neither would Babs.

$6.25 million, front loaded and mostly as bonuses, is the price of the short term contract, don't want to sign any UFA for more than three years right now, don't even want to sign them for three, but three is still better than five.

Patrick Marleau is not going to break the Leafs, there's only one player I'm worried about, and that's Freddie Andersen and his wonky head, but not much I can do about it, there's no better goalies who can play 65 games kicking around neither.

[Smitty-48]

Might even cost both Connor Brown and JVR to get a top four D, plus a 1st rounder on top, and that's not even gonna be a top pairing D, that's a Tanev maybe, but it's not gonna be a Trouba.

Might be a Sami Vatanen, but he's hurt, he's small, he's expensive, and they got rushing D like that already, rather have a Tanev, bigger, fitter, cheaper, and better defensively. When you're getting pounded by a heavy game down low in the playoffs, is Sami Vatanen really gonna be that much of an upgrade on Connor Carrick? Anaheim didn't think so, because they had to limit his minutes and go big with Manson instead, and even then Vatanen still got hurt, can't take the pounding.

The Islanders were asking two first round picks to trade Hamonic in their own conference, I like Travis Hamonic, but he's a 4D, two first round picks for a 4D? I'd rather trade Connor Brown and stopgap with Marleau, because they're not going to be able to keep Connor Brown, and Nylander, and Marner, beyond three years.

If Patty Marleau can bang off two more 20 goal 40 point seasons, that would actually be great, because he didn't cost them a pick, rather spend short term money than trade 1st rounders, and Connor Brown is gonna have to go anyways, one way or the other, so trade Brown, stopgap with Marleau, keep the pick, I see the method to their madness.

When it comes to overpaying for a 20 goal 40 point veteran? Better to overpay in cash than term; Marleau for 3 at 6 > Radulov for 5 at 6, just like Hainsey for 2 at 3 > Alzner for 5 at 4.5, not to mention that I think Marleau is a better all round player at 37 than Radulov is at 31, and Alzner is just an overpriced Hainsey.

[Smitty-48]

McDavid signs for 12.5, if that's Hart, Ross, Lindsay, hopefully Lou can get Matthews for around 10.5, doubt it, but if the Leafs could shave a couple schmill off that, they'd be laughing, otoh, if Matty comes out and blams off a couple 50 goal seasons, nvm, 12.5 is gonna be the number, maybe keep playing Hyman on the Matthews line after all, just to keep him from going off the charts.

The upside is, if Matty wants McJesus money, he can't take any steps back in the next two years, there can be no sophmore slumps, and that goes for Marns and Nyls too, lots of money in the wind, but they have to take it to the next level to get it, 60-70 points ain't gonna = max contracts.

[Smitty-48]

4 years $9 million for Zach Hyman, $2.25 million per, that's fair, but what's Connor Brown gonna fetch then? Again, Connor Brown, as a 3RW, I see him being priced off the team in the not too distant future, considering his trade value, not good enough to be top six, too good to be bottom six, too valuable to other teams who can't score, on most teams he would be a 2RW, but if I'm his agent, I'm not taking 3RW money just to play for the Leafs.

[Smitty-48]

BTW, just looking at Marleau's stats, "wheels have come off" is fake news, "overpaid" would be determined by the market, according to market forces, he's still putting up six million dollar numbers by NHL standards, even at 37.

Compared to a 31 year old Radulov at $6.3 million for the next five years, a 37 year old Marleau had 50% more goals, more even strength goals, more powerplay goals, more game winning goals, more goals per game, more playoff goals, more shots, higher shooting percentage, more blocked shots, more games played, comparable possession numbers, and while Radulov's CF% was 3 points higher, when you consider Radulov getting a 62-38 offensive to defensive zone start split as opposed to Marleau at almost 50-50 even, Marleau is a better net shot generator, while being a shot supressor as well, when Montreal basically sheltered Radulov by keeping him out of his own zone as much as possible, so as I said, even at 37, Marleau is the better player than Radulov, the comparably priced UFA at 31.

Is that rationalizing? I don't know, but if I do the math, he's a $6+ million dollar UFA, at the NHL market rate, so he's not actually overpaid, he's still putting up numbers comensurate to his salary, San Jose was simply lowballing him by offering $5 million, that's well below market rate for what he brings to the table, I don't think he needs the money, I just think he might have been kind of insulted, which, rightly so, if you crunch the numbers.

He was second on the team in goals, behind only Brent Burns, third in powerplay goals, tied for first in shooting percentage, and he was third on the team in points, ahead of Joe Thornton, and was one of only two players on the team to play all 82 games.

I wouldn't say the Leafs got a steal, but they basically just paid him the market rate, which, I'm sure Dallas offered him the same as well.

[SilverEagle]

I think StCapps and I have hit a nerve.

[Smitty-48]

Well obvious troll is obvious, but I hadn't actually dug into Patty Marleau's underlying numbers for a comparative analysis as of yet, I mean, I am a Patty Marleau fan, long before he was a Leaf, so my initial reaction was positive, but then you got people saying "the wheels have come off", so I thought I had better double check, but turns out, not actually.

As for overpaid, that gets bandied about, but with a comparative analysis there, to the closest comparable on the market in terms of AAV, which is Radulov, turns out, also not actually.

Honestly, if I was a Sharks fan, I would be scratching my head as to why we were just letting this guy walk, because they don't have a young core, and they don't have another Patty Marleau just waiting in the wings neither, basically the second best producer on their team, after only Brent Burns.

I mean, if they were rebuilding it might make sense, but they're not, so letting Patty Marleau walk for a measely $1.25 million AAV, when he would have come back on a two year if they didn't low ball him, well, I think they're actually going to end up missing him, I don't actually see Mikkel Boedker or whoever stepping to fill his shoes over the next couple years here.

Like, Marleau is one of only three Sharks who puts up goals on a consistent basis, and he now steps onto the Leafs, one of the most dynamic and high scoring offences in the league, and he's still the number four goal scorer behind only Matthews, Kadri, and JVR, right out of the gate.

[SilverEagle]

The problem is committing that much time and money on a guy that will be 38 before the season starts. The odds of his production falling off the cliff at this stage of his career is extremely high. I hope it works out of your team but I think it's a long shot at best.

[Smitty-48]

I would say "extremely high" is far too pessimistic, there is risk, particularly in year three, but I actually think the odds are extremely high that he will put up some decent numbers over the next couple years here, when you take him off the grinding Sharks and plug him into the high flying Leafs offence with Babcock running the show, because contrary to the "wheels have fallen off" narrative, the guy can actually still skate and score, at an elite level.

He's also going from the toughest division in the NHL, to the weakest, I kind of have a feeling that he's going to feast on the East, when plugged into the second best powerplay in the league, going up against the Atlantic division, which is who the Leafs have to be focussed on.

As for long shot? The Leafs are playing with house money for the next couple years, there's actually no reason not to take some chances, particularly on a guy who has been so consistent, before the kids have to be paid, might as well just go for it actually, the Leafs have some more kids coming, but they're two three years away, so in the meantime, I think Patty Marleau could end up being a great stopgap.

[StCapps]

Market price and term, for old veteran UFA's = Awful
Patrick Marleau is not an exception.

Comparing Marleau to another overpaid bum doesn't prove that Marleau isn't an overpaid bum, just because other teams are willing to overpay bums doesn't make it a good idea. Looks like Lamariello hasn't learned his lesson from the end of his run in New Jersey. The wheels haven't fallen off yet, in Marleau's case, though he's lost a step or two, but he's 37, and the process is very likely to accelerate moving forward. Just because you have cash to spend doesn't mean you should just throw it away.
/shrugs