HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

[apeman]

Just want to add that this is a great thread, probably the best on the MHF so far, a lot of these links and tangents have offered a lot to me

[Hastur]

Listened twice now. I can't help but feel like this was a huge "beware Trump" episode released a month after the election. I don't get the timing is all. The most blatant CS/HH crossover episode so far.

I don't mind. If Dan wants to cover current events in the light of past experiences, I'm all aboard. I think that could be his USP. Merge the two shows and do this stuff. Could be quite a carreer move.

[Alexander PhiAlipson]

Listened twice now. I can't help but feel like this was a huge "beware Trump" episode released a month after the election. I don't get the timing is all. The most blatant CS/HH crossover episode so far.

I don't mind. If Dan wants to cover current events in the light of past experiences, I'm all aboard. I think that could be his USP. Merge the two shows and do this stuff. Could be quite a carreer move.

'Member when he said he'd never do a full Cold War Hardcore History epidode?
I 'member.

[Smitty-48]

As per usual, Carlin's dogma suffers from a "grass is greener" pathology, there's no such thing as a safe nuclear stalemate, so, barring unilateral disarmament and by entension subjecting your state to nuclear blackmail, delegating the authority to use nuclear weapons widely, does not reduce the chances of a nuclear war, in fact, that would increase the chances exponentially, as if it was a long and laborious process for the National Command Authority, that would simply open the way for a premptive counterforce strike against the CONUS, as it stands now, the leading edge of a counterforce, only requires six minutes to effect decapitation.

The greater the chances of the adversary being able to effect preemption, the greater the chances of the adversary attempting it upon confrontation, to wit, if it takes you any longer than six minutes to warn, deliberate, direct, and retaliate, against the Soviet/Russian counterforce capability, your deterrent is actually not credible anymore, for all intents and purpsoes, should you stumble to the brink.

While the Carlin Security Council is deliberating splendidly, the DSP goes down, the SSBN's get sunk, and the depressed trajectory birds are amongst you, while NORAD sits on the phone waiting for somebody to make up their fucking minds, having neither the CIP Codes nor the Gold Codes to do anything about it themselves, which, is a recipe, for Ivan getting the drop, at which point, you've created a scenario where Ivan would likely do that, rather than risk a mutual countervalue exchange.

[Fife]

Listened twice now. I can't help but feel like this was a huge "beware Trump" episode released a month after the election. I don't get the timing is all. The most blatant CS/HH crossover episode so far.

I don't mind. If Dan wants to cover current events in the light of past experiences, I'm all aboard. I think that could be his USP. Merge the two shows and do this stuff. Could be quite a carreer move.

'Member when he said he'd never do a full Cold War Hardcore History epidode?
I 'member.

That was back many, many, many years ago. Like all the way back to 2014 or something. Before the country lost its mind.

[skankhunt42]

Listened twice now. I can't help but feel like this was a huge "beware Trump" episode released a month after the election. I don't get the timing is all. The most blatant CS/HH crossover episode so far.

I don't mind. If Dan wants to cover current events in the light of past experiences, I'm all aboard. I think that could be his USP. Merge the two shows and do this stuff. Could be quite a carreer move.

'Member when he said he'd never do a full Cold War Hardcore History epidode?
I 'member.

That was back many, many, many years ago. Like all the way back to 2014 or something. Before the country lost its mind.

It really is hilarious in a certain light how ridiculous America has become. Yea, we are going to have a Civil War with a bunch of panty waists. They couldn't take a punch, let alone know how to use a firearm.

[adwinistrator]

delegating the authority to use nuclear weapons widely, does not reduce the chances of a nuclear war, in fact, that would increase the chances exponentially, as if it was a long and laborious process for the National Command Authority, that would simply open the way for a premptive counterforce strike against the CONUS, as it stands now, the leading edge of a counterforce, only requires six minutes to effect decapitation.

The greater the chances of the adversary being able to effect preemption, the greater the chances of the adversary attempting it upon confrontation, to wit, if it takes you any longer than six minutes to warn, deliberate, direct, and retaliate, against the Soviet/Russian counterforce capability, your deterrent is actually not credible anymore, for all intents and purpsoes, should you stumble to the brink.

While the Carlin Security Council is deliberating splendidly, the DSP goes down, the SSBN's get sunk, and the depressed trajectory birds are amongst you, while NORAD sits on the phone waiting for somebody to make up their fucking minds, having neither the CIP Codes nor the Gold Codes to do anything about it themselves, which, is a recipe, for Ivan getting the drop, at which point, you've created a scenario where Ivan would likely do that, rather than risk a mutual countervalue exchange.

Great post, and very good points.

Mind elaborating on:

1. "delegating the authority to use nuclear weapons widely... as if it was a long and laborious process for the National Command Authority..."
   1. Is this what you consider the current state of the NCA for nuclear weapons to be?
   2. What do you think is the best balance between speed and safety, and why?
2. "as it stands now, the leading edge of a counterforce, only requires six minutes to effect decapitation"
   1. Why only six minutes? How would we increase the amount of time?
   2. What do you consider decapitation?
   3. What changes could be made to reduce ability to decapitate, when, as you said, the wide delegation of authority is one of the factors in the slow response.

[SuburbanFarmer]

'Member when he said he'd never do a full Cold War Hardcore History epidode?
I 'member.

That was back many, many, many years ago. Like all the way back to 2014 or something. Before the country lost its mind.

It really is hilarious in a certain light how ridiculous America has become. Yea, we are going to have a Civil War with a bunch of panty waists. They couldn't take a punch, let alone know how to use a firearm.

So much virtue signalled... so pure...

[Smitty-48]

Great post, and very good points.

Mind elaborating on:

"delegating the authority to use nuclear weapons widely... as if it was a long and laborious process for the National Command Authority..."

Is this what you consider the current state of the NCA for nuclear weapons to be?

No, the chain of command is clear, the NCA has a lot of people in it, but it only takes one to sign off on a launch in a launch-on-warning scenario, the NCA is all about redundancy, not delegation.

What do you think is the best balance between speed and safety, and why?

There's no safety when you're at this level of hair trigger at all times, its an inherently unsafe affair, no matter what procedures you put in place, given enough time, it will fail. If you want safety, stand down from launch-on-warning, so long as you remain at launch-on-warning, you're not safe, inhehrent to the thing.

"as it stands now, the leading edge of a counterforce, only requires six minutes to effect decapitation"
Why only six minutes?

That's the time that you have, in the event of a submarine launched surprise attack, before the SLBM's are amongst you, when launched on a depressed trajectory from a first strike position.

How would we increase the amount of time?

Keep the enemy submarines at bay, force them to stay in their bastions, far from the CONUS.

What do you consider decapitation?

The military is forced to make it up as they go, because the NCA is gone for all intents and purposes.

What changes could be made to reduce ability to decapitate, when, as you said, the wide delegation of authority is one of the factors in the slow response.

Moar SSBN's, and give them their CIP codes back. If you're going to slow the response time, then survivable second strike is the only credible deterent left.

For that to be truly viable, against an adversary like the Russians, it has to be seriously redundant against their counterforce, particularly in this age of hybrid propulsion which allows cheap, plentiful, and ultra quiet SSK's, to become hunter-killers. And you also have to trust your boat crews, they have to be able to retaliate autonomous from the NCA, every boat crew, an NCA unto itself.

In the end, you can be fast, or you can be reliable, or you can be safe, but you can't be all three, you have to pick one.

In broad strokes and the current configuration;

America has chosen fast (single point of accountability launch-on-warning hair trigger alert)
Russia has selected reliable (massively redundant survivable second strike)
China has gone with safe (stand down from launch on warning, maintain minimum deterent)

[DrYouth]

Wow... I just realized that my brother was born on the first day of the Cuban Missile Crisis...

That explains a lot.



The dude has always been trouble.