THE ERA OF TRUMP

[DBTrek]

Fewer foreign nationals will be voting for sure.
That’s bad news for the party of America Last.

[Smitty-48]

We'll see, If the polls are wrong again, Red Team is sitting pretty, but if the polls turn out to be right, fifty something opposed thirty something in favour, then Red Team is likely to lose the House, at which point, things are going to get even more hysterical, because Blue Team will no doubt go to full on Watergate Mode then.

[Smitty-48]

The danger for Red Team is the danger you always face when you hold all three cards at the midterms, just a general sentiment that you could use some reining in, even with your own voters, so they sit on their hands to send you the message to shape up, how many times has either team held all three cards through the midterms?

[Smitty-48]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

Guess we’ll need to dial up another 9/11 then.

[clubgop]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

All of that is true but recently, last 3 recently, Democrat turnout has been abysmal even for mid term standards. Republican incumbents hold 24 districts that Hillary won in 2016. Dems need 23 seats. So they would have to run the table here using general election turnout models even hugely improved midterm models. Otherwise they would have to win districts like GA-06 and they have demonstrated their bench is barren. Candidate recruitment is key and they are hurting bad on that account. If I were to bet Republican lose 18-20 seats close but not enough. In the Senate, a draw, maybe +2 GOP. The map is that bad for dems.

[clubgop]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

Guess we’ll need to dial up another 9/11 then.

We all know you have ISIS on speed dial.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

Guess we’ll need to dial up another 9/11 then.

We all know you have ISIS on speed dial.

That response was not predictable as fuck.

[K@th]

All of that is true but recently, last 3 recently, Democrat turnout has been abysmal even for mid term standards. Republican incumbents hold 24 districts that Hillary won in 2016. Dems need 23 seats. So they would have to run the table here using general election turnout models even hugely improved midterm models. Otherwise they would have to win districts like GA-06 and they have demonstrated their bench is barren. Candidate recruitment is key and they are hurting bad on that account. If I were to bet Republican lose 18-20 seats close but not enough. In the Senate, a draw, maybe +2 GOP. The map is that bad for dems.

I think it's the middle that is going to stay home. They don't like Trump, but they like the economy and he doesn't matter. The dems are as rabid as I've ever seen. My FB feed is so ridiculous that I've blocked a dozen people, at least, because they are having heart attacks over the president's diet.

I don't think they'll be staying home, but the extremists don't decide elections, you know this.

[Speaker to Animals]

Democrats are pretty energized to undo that election. Hopefully the DNC will nominate somebody totally unelectable like Warren. Because by then, Trump will likely have completely burned out his own base with these stupid deals he keeps talking about.