North Korea News

[Speaker to Animals]

Liberals and their globalist/libertarian allies think the whole world is like one big family and it's only our nasty government that keeps us at each other's throats.

It's fucking absurd, really.

[Smitty-48]

And there's no "birds on reentry", because you don't get to reentry unless you launch, and if you launch on a trajectory towards North Korea, that will incite an all out nuclear war, which, you're not going to risk, thus, you are back to counterforce, which, is not existential for the North Korean regime, and so; is not a deterrent in a crisis situation at the brink, Korean Missile Crisis.

You have no countervalue option here, which only leaves you a counterforce option, and then it's just a question of when you're going to use it, but if you wait until the Korean Missile Crisis, it will be too late then to use it with 100% effectiveness, which means, you get them, but they nuke you on the way down.

Take them down now, you're at 100%, wait until the Korean Missile Crisis, it will be 90%, but that 10% missing, is at least one if not a handful of multimegaton yield hydrogen bombs on the CONUS.

[SuburbanFarmer]

And there's no "birds on reentry", because you don't get to reentry unless you launch, and if you launch on a trajectory towards North Korea, that will incite an all out nuclear war, which, you're not going to risk, thus, you are back to counterforce, which, is not existential for the North Korean regime, and so; is not a deterrent in a crisis situation at the brink, Korean Missile Crisis.

You have no countervalue option here, which only leaves you a counterforce option, and then it's just a question of when you're going to use it, but if you wait until the Korean Missile Crisis, it will be too late then to use it with 100% effectiveness, which means, you get them, but they nuke you on the way down.

Take them down now, you're at 100%, wait until the Korean Missile Crisis, it will be 90%, but that 10% missing, is at least one if not a handful of multimegaton yield hydrogen bombs on the CONUS.

You're saying that, if we strike pre-emptively, then everything's cool. And if we wait and counter-strike them, then it's WW3, for no particular reason.

You can't possibly believe the nonsense you're typing right now.

[Smitty-48]

You're saying that, if we strike pre-emptively, then everything's cool. And if we wait and counter-strike them, then it's WW3, for no particular reason.

You can't possibly believe the nonsense you're typing right now.

You simply don't grasp the distinction between counterforce and countervalue, you have a counterforce option, limited, low yield, tightly focussed, the Russians and Chinese are not going to be incited to all out nuclear war by the limited use of 0.3 to 5 kiloton yield tactical weapons employed mostly as bunkerbusters, that option is viable.

The option which is not viable; massive countervalue retaliation, that would incite an all out nuclear war, and so you can't risk that.

The problem is, counterforce doesn't deter the North Koreans, because it's not existential, the regime would survive the counterforce, it's not an existential threat to them, and so in the crisis at the brink, it's not a deterrent.

Quite sure everybody else reading this can grasp the concept, you're literally the only moron here who doesn't get it.

[SuburbanFarmer]

You're saying that, if we strike pre-emptively, then everything's cool. And if we wait and counter-strike them, then it's WW3, for no particular reason.

You can't possibly believe the nonsense you're typing right now.

You simply don't grasp the distinction between counterforce and countervalue, you have a counterforce option, limited, low yield, tightly focussed, the Russians and Chinese are not going to be incited to all out nuclear war by the limited use of 0.3 to 5 kiloton yield tactical weapons employed mostly as bunkerbusters, that option is viable.

The option which is not viable; massive countervalue retaliation, that would incite an all out nuclear war, and so you can't risk that.

The problem is, counterforce doesn't deter the North Koreans, because it's not existential, the regime would survive the counterforce, it's not an existential threat to them, and so in the crisis at the brink, it's not a deterrent.

Quite sure everybody else reading this can grasp the concept, you're literally the only moron here who doesn't get it.

No, I'm pretty sure there are hundreds of millions of us that "don't get" what the fuck you're talking about.

Pre-emptive nuclear strikes are an MIC masturbatory fantasy, not reality. That is simply not acceptable to a balanced human being. Either a new paradigm will be reached, or well counter-strike them into oblivion. There is no other option involving nukes.

And if you think Russia or China are going to end humanity over us retaliating against a tinpot dictator, you need a much better argument than "because they want to". That's not something to gamble 7 billion lives on.

[Smitty-48]

Yeah, whatever, Grumpy.

Anyways, bear in mind, there would be a conventional component to the counterforce, the conventional component would be very similar to the air campaigns which America has conducted, but none of those air campaigns were conducted against a nuclear armed adversary, and with nuclear weapons in play, it becomes a no fail mission, can't tarry, can't miss, and you have to get it all and get it all on the first pass.

But, conventional bombs just ain't hot enough, they can't do it fast enough and they can't do it comprehensively enough for nuclear counterforce, so this is where the B61's come into play, but again, just B61's, and on the low yield setting, it's not Miniteman III's, this is tactical weapons at the operational level for strategic effect.

[Smitty-48]

Also note; Mattis just came out and said "any threat against US or allies" is casus belli for "massive military response", and that's the counterforce option on the table, dictionary definition of, and if the counterforce is on the table, the B61's are on the table, there's no way the Pentagon is going up there for a counterforce against an already nuclear armed North Korea, with just conventional bombs.

So this is not some wild crazy scenario which would never be considered, this just became the policy of the United States vis a vis North Korea, all I do is extrapolate; no fail mission against nuclear armed; B61's in play hot, baked right into that cake.

[ssu]

So basically this isn't a war that will likely explode into an all-out nuclear war.

First of all, you're wrong, because you are in the liberal media orthodoxy which asserts this North Korean nuclear program to be "a deterrent, cause regime change", which is a misreading of the situation by projecting a posture onto the NK's which is not actaully what they're up to.

Second, you can't operate on "likely wont explode" when you're talking about nuclear deterrence, you have a deterrent, or you don't, and if you don't, against a regime like North Korea armed with hydrogen bombs, you are in extreme peril by default.

Russia, China, deterred, because there is a massive retaliation option, but a doomsday therein, but, not so for North Korea.

That doomsday with Russia and China, prevents the United States from massively retaliating against North Korea if/when North Korea launches a limited nuclear war against the CONUS, thus, the United States has no actual deterrent in place against a North Korean limited nuclear strike against the CONUS, it's rhetorical, but it's not real.

And when the United States finally clues into what the North Koreans are actually up to, then you'll have a Korean Missile Crisis at somepoint, except this time, it's not with Khruschev, and you don't have Curtis Lemay deterring with a existential retaliation.

To wit, with North Korea specifically, there is no MAD in effect.

Naturally there's no MAD. Even with China and the US there's no MAD.

All I'm saying that there's a goddam history in dealing with North Korea. If nuclear powers come to blows, then they do a heck lot not to escalate, just like India and Pakistan. The surprise attack is just one option.

The US Armed Forces is reacting quite logically as it has reacted earlier. And Mattis' actions tell that extremely well.

If the US goes for the pre-emptive option, well, that is one possibility. But so is that nothing happens also.

[ssu]

You guys are so intent that the only option is nuclear war. Well, as war is a continuation of politics and we still are in the politics phase, there's a lot of options. One is the geopolitical grandstanding, like basically this one from the South Korean Defence Minister:

South Korea’s defense minister suggests return of tactical U.S. nuclear weapons

South Korea’s defense minister on Monday said it was worth reviewing the redeployment of American tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula to guard against the North, a step that analysts warn would sharply increase the risk of an accidental conflict.

But in New York, Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was “begging for war.”

And even as concern over Korea deepened following North Korea’s huge nuclear test Sunday,, South Korea’s defense ministry said Monday that Pyongyang might be preparing to launch another missile into the Pacific Ocean, perhaps an intercontinental ballistic missile theoretically capable of reaching the mainland United States.

There's a lot of moves than just the final one.

[Smitty-48]

Naturally there's no MAD. Even with China and the US there's no MAD.

All I'm saying that there's a goddam history in dealing with North Korea. If nuclear powers come to blows, then they do a heck lot not to escalate, just like India and Pakistan. The surprise attack is just one option.

The US Armed Forces is reacting quite logically as it has reacted earlier. And Mattis' actions tell that extremely well.

If the US goes for the pre-emptive option, well, that is one possibility. But so is that nothing happens also.

North Korea is not like other nuclear powers, the idea that the Juche doomsday cult drinking its own kool-aid for generations up in this ultimate totalitarian Hermit Kingdom, is "just like Russia and China and India and Pakistan", is a grave error in judgement.

And the history of dealing with North Korea since this program started, is the history of the Americans whistling past the graveyard, buying into a liberal establishmemt orthodoxy which completely misjudges the situation and projects a template onto the North Koreans which does reflect the reality of the regime, nor what they are actually doing.