North Korea News

[Smitty-48]

So is there a way out of this?

Destroy Pyongyang and every nuclear weapons facility we know about in North Korea. Like very soon.

They are WAY fucking ahead of schedule.

Funny... I was just advocating this on Friday - about 6,000 posts ago, before they detonated their new bomb. Way back then, Smitty was telling me to simmer down, and it wouldn't work, and quit talking shit that I don't understand.

How things change...

I'm not talking SEAL Team Six here, I said Neptune Spear wouldn't work, but I'm not talking about Neptune Spear, this is not about killing one dude, this would have to be a comprehensive counterforce option, they do have nuclear weapons, it's not Osama Bin Laden, and while I'm not talking Castle Bravo, make no mistake, I am talking nuclear war, limited, theater, tactical weapons employed at the operational level for strategic effect.

[StCapps]

So is there a way out of this?

Like I said, I'd be warming up the counterforce option right about now, if you wanna go with the Capps doctine, just let it play out, fair enough I suppose, but make sure you understand that the risk factor for counterforce option goes up exponentially if they get to the threshold of Redwings over the CONUS, so me, I'm ready to take them down now, harsh realm for North Korea, but not one hair mussed on the CONUS.

If I was the CinC, it would be in motion already.

To clarify, America should still pull the trigger before the NK cross the threshold, and the longer they wait before they do, while still being able to take them down with ease, the more optimal the timing.

That said, Smitty is right about the risk of waiting too long being higher than I perceived a few days ago, the window of opportunity won't be open quite as long as I anticipated. The US should still absolutely make sure to strike before that window closes, even if it means not striking at the most optimal moment, since they obviously lack the benefit of hindsight, and the stakes are so high.

When or if America is going to preempt NK, I would advise that America not unnecessarily provoke China or Russia while they do so, no need to respond recklessly and/or arbitrarily. I like the subtle change in the US stance toward NK that Mathis made today, that's a good start on that front.

[Smitty-48]

So is there a way out of this?

Like I said, I'd be warming up the counterforce option right about now, if you wanna go with the Capps doctine, just let it play out, fair enough I suppose, but make sure you understand that the risk factor for counterforce option goes up exponentially if they get to the threshold of Redwings over the CONUS, so me, I'm ready to take them down now, harsh realm for North Korea, but not one hair mussed on the CONUS.

If I was the CinC, it would be in motion already.

To clarify, America should still pull the trigger before the NK cross the threshold, and the longer they wait before they do, while still being able to take them down with ease, the more optimal the timing.

That said, the risk of waiting too long is higher than I perceived a few days ago, and it sure looks like the window won't be open quite as long as I anticipated. The US should still absolutely make sure to strike before that window closes, even if it means not striking at the most optimal moment, since they obviously lack the benefit of hindsight. When or if America is going to preempt NK, I would advise that America not unnecessarily provoke China or Russia while they do so.

It's a judgement call, but in my judgement, they're not that far away from having miniaturized multimegaton yield hydrogen bombs on mobile ICBM launchers, dispersed, concealed and dug in.

Is it a year? Is it two? I don't know, but the problem is, time flies, and you don't know when they're going to go operational, but in my judgement, they are going to go operational, come hell or high water, at which point, you're just guessing where the threshold is, if I don't want to allow them to reach that threshold, under any circumstances, and I am convinced that they are going to keep going till they get there, and then they're going to start with the escalation dominance blackmail game to try to win the Korean War, the very attempt being destined to take things to the brink; you tell me, what exactly am I waiting for?

Other than poltical expedience, I can't think of any reason not to take them down now, before they can disperse these bombs, and if I was the CiNC, and you're talking about nuclear weapons over the CONUS? Politics takes a back seat, and I go to wartime operations.

[Speaker to Animals]

They may be gunning for such a high yield because they figure their best shot at winning is an EMP attack across all of CONUS. instead of aerial bursts over cities, they detonate pretty high up, but the yields would be as large as possible so as to shut us down pretty much for good for all intents and purposes.

In an exchange, assuming they have four or five of those things, kill a lot of people in our major cities, but if they just go for the EMP, they could basically shut down the United States as a technological entity for years. In the time that follows, fatalities would be much, much higher too.

The rest of the world would basically come unhinged too without the hegemon maintaining order.

[StCapps]

Cross all the t's, dot all the i's, get all their ducks in a row, and then fuck their shit up. America has that luxury and not seeing any risk in them waiting that long to do so.

That's what I'm waiting for, unless America has already done that, then I guess they are good to go without my suspecting it. I figure that they are lollygagging on that though, am I wrong? Has the US moved enough military assets into the area in the last few months to reverse the previous slackery in that regard?

[Speaker to Animals]

Like I said, I suspect we already are mobilizing. We probably have been sneaking aircraft from base to base all night. Come morning, satellites will show empty spots on the tarmac because they will be flying across the Pacific or hiding in hangars out west to launch tomorrow night. You might see Kadena AFB gearing up.

[StCapps]

Like I said, I suspect we already are mobilizing. We probably have been sneaking aircraft from base to base all night. Come morning, satellites will show empty spots on the tarmac because they will be flying across the Pacific or hiding in hangars out west to launch tomorrow night. You might see Kadena AFB gearing up.

You suspect the US might be mobilizing? To me, that doesn't really sound like the US has all their the ducks are in a row quite yet, when it comes to taking out NK. I'd at least wait until then before y'all strike, that's what I'm getting at.

[Smitty-48]

I don't think they're going for EMP, that last missile test with the radar returns showing three distinct and intact components flying in formation, that presents like a PBV separation test, and if they're testing a PBV, that means they're testing for reentry, and if they're testing for reentry, with a multimegaton yield hydrogen bomb? That's not EMP, that's a City Killer.

[TheReal_ND]

[Speaker to Animals]

Like I said, I suspect we already are mobilizing. We probably have been sneaking aircraft from base to base all night. Come morning, satellites will show empty spots on the tarmac because they will be flying across the Pacific or hiding in hangars out west to launch tomorrow night. You might see Kadena AFB gearing up.

You suspect the US might be mobilizing? To me, that doesn't really sound like the US has all their the ducks are in a row quite yet, when it comes to taking out NK. I'd at least wait until then before y'all strike, that's what I'm getting at.

I've seen it happen once before. Most people don't even know it happened.

I don't know how the USN does it, but shuffling aircraft into a theater in secret is not impossible. Logistically, it's kind of a mess on the ground, but the only thing you will see from space are empty spots on the tarmac.

They wouldn't tell these people it's going to happen in a week if NK doesn't stand down. They will get everything ready and give them an ultimatum to capitulate back to the terms of their treaty obligation or we will destroy those facilities within hours -- and they will be destroyed.