So Trump ordered General Soleimani Assassinated, and now people are crying for WWIII....

[Smitty-48]

Worst case scenario is that Iran gets a right good drubbing by air bombardment, land based and carrier borne.

Lockheed Martin shareholders approve.

Is that really the ‘worst case’ here?

Nobody is going to war against America for Tehran, Iran has no friends, no allies.

The Russians won't fight for them, neither will the Chinese, thus it becomes a rather one sided affair against Iran.

There won't be any land invasion, Iran is too big for that, none the less, they are easily bombed into submission

Iran's actual adversary is Israel, Iran can't afford to have their military decimated in the face of the IDF

America, NATO & Israel v. Iran : nolo contendere.

[heydaralon]

The American BMW dealerships and marble statue/fountain retailers are going to take a major hit if American Iranians decide to stage a boycot. A lot of ink is being spilled for this dude, and I don't get why. He operated with impunity for almost 15 years. He decided to involve himself in the Iraq debacle and arm Americas enemies. He knew the stakes. Payback for SCIRI/Al Sadr. Good riddance.

[heydaralon]

Like I said. $500B printed in 3 months. Trucking and shipping industries collapsing.
During a ‘boom’. I can’t make you economically literate, but I can tell you this is not a good sign for 2020.

Just because everything isn't perfect doesn't mean it's a disaster, you're retarded.

Ok. Why are we printing money at an unprecedented rate, at near-zero interest in a ‘boom’? Why does the S&P track the feds balance sheet over the past 2 years? Why are we running a bigger deficit than WW2? Why did the fed abandon their self-created ‘mandate’ of 2% inflation when even their made-up CPI exceeded it?

Why did I spend my entire paycheck on the Sanford and Sons boxset on Amazon? Why did I eat an entire family sized jar of Peter Pan peanut butter? Because I was on ambien. Do you understand now?

[Smitty-48]

Just because everything isn't perfect doesn't mean it's a disaster, you're retarded.

Ok. Why are we printing money at an unprecedented rate, at near-zero interest in a ‘boom’? Why does the S&P track the feds balance sheet over the past 2 years? Why are we running a bigger deficit than WW2? Why did the fed abandon their self-created ‘mandate’ of 2% inflation when even their made-up CPI exceeded it?

Why did I spend my entire paycheck on the Sanford and Sons boxset on Amazon? Why did I eat an entire family sized jar of Peter Pan peanut butter? Because I was on ambien. Do you understand now?

Nailed it.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Just because everything isn't perfect doesn't mean it's a disaster, you're retarded.

Ok. Why are we printing money at an unprecedented rate, at near-zero interest in a ‘boom’? Why does the S&P track the feds balance sheet over the past 2 years? Why are we running a bigger deficit than WW2? Why did the fed abandon their self-created ‘mandate’ of 2% inflation when even their made-up CPI exceeded it?

Why did I spend my entire paycheck on the Sanford and Sons boxset on Amazon? Why did I eat an entire family sized jar of Peter Pan peanut butter? Because I was on ambien. Do you understand now?

Solid points.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Worst case scenario is that Iran gets a right good drubbing by air bombardment, land based and carrier borne.

Lockheed Martin shareholders approve.

Is that really the ‘worst case’ here?

Nobody is going to war against America for Tehran, Iran has no friends, no allies.

The Russians won't fight for them, neither will the Chinese, thus it becomes a rather one sided affair against Iran.

There won't be any land invasion, Iran is too big for that, none the less, they are easily bombed into submission

Iran's actual adversary is Israel, Iran can't afford to have their military decimated in the face of the IDF

America, NATO & Israel v. Iran : nolo contendere.

That is definitely the assumption being made, but I don’t believe there’s much a backup plan, in the event that China and Russia say stop. Both of which have an unofficial/official defense agreement.

This is a no-win position. Taking a risk, for no benefit.

[Smitty-48]

Is that really the ‘worst case’ here?

Nobody is going to war against America for Tehran, Iran has no friends, no allies.

The Russians won't fight for them, neither will the Chinese, thus it becomes a rather one sided affair against Iran.

There won't be any land invasion, Iran is too big for that, none the less, they are easily bombed into submission

Iran's actual adversary is Israel, Iran can't afford to have their military decimated in the face of the IDF

America, NATO & Israel v. Iran : nolo contendere.

That is definitely the assumption being made, but I don’t believe there’s much a backup plan, in the event that China and Russia say stop. Both of which have an unofficial/official defense agreement.

This is a no-win position. Taking a risk, for no benefit.

There's no back up plan other than nuclear deterrence, which, while not being assurance, is still a mighty deterrent.

Russia is not an ally of Iran and neither is China, neither is going to the mattresses for Tehran, realistically

[heydaralon]

In the 80's, during the Iran-Iraq war, the USS Stark shot down an Iranian passenger jet that killed almost 300 people. That was fucked up. I can see the outrage over that. But killing a general who is in the middle of multiple great power conflicts and up to his eyeballs in blood is not some humanitarian tragedy. He shook the hornet's nest and got stung. The only thing that amazes me is that this did not happen sooner. America's second war in Iraq was a mistake imo, but the public often overlooks the enormous role that Iran played in the post-Saddam bloodbath. This man was deeply involved in that. He thought he was untouchable. I guess a predator drone disagreed with him.

[Smitty-48]

One of the things that makes Iran particularly vulnerable is that it is not actually a Russian nor Chinese proxy

Russia and Iran are actually enemies over the Caspian Sea, China has more interests in America.

Thus the Iranians are out on a limb against American air power, with no strategic depth

Not worth it for them to escalate and get whupped, they can't win.

In the event of war, their air defenses wouldn't last a night, then they'd get pummeled, to no particular gain.

[Smitty-48]

In terms of escalation, the fault line remains in Europe.

In the Baltic, should Belarus come into play, that would set Ivan off.

In the Black Sea, a NATO incursion over the Bosporus, that would set Ivan off.

Iran, not so much, because again, Russia and Iran are enemies not friends.