The Mess

[Smitty-48]

They shouldn't be in NATO in the first place. That's the point.

The question remains that we have no idea exactly how far constitutes 'too far'. Putin ran the experiment in Ukraine and got a perfect result -no reaction, and more domestic cred. He will do it again, and nobody will be able to find a Casus Belli to stop him.

After all, it was just local volunteers right?

Well, again, if the Latvians are facing some sort of internal insurgency, that's not NATO's responsibility, it's like the United Kingdom, cannot invoke NATO Article V, over the Irish Republican Army, and make no mistake, the Soviets were actively exploiting the PIRA. Active Measures, to exploit internal unrest, is not a casus belli tantamount to the baloon going up over the trace, and it never was.

[SuburbanFarmer]

They shouldn't be in NATO in the first place. That's the point.

The question remains that we have no idea exactly how far constitutes 'too far'. Putin ran the experiment in Ukraine and got a perfect result -no reaction, and more domestic cred. He will do it again, and nobody will be able to find a Casus Belli to stop him.

After all, it was just local volunteers right?

Well, again, if the Latvians are facing some sort of internal insurgency, that's not NATO's responsibility, it's like the United Kingdom, cannot invoke NATO Article V, over the Irish Republican Army, and make no mistake, the Soviets were actively exploiting the PIRA.

Fine, but how much 're-education' do you think the west will tolerate, before going hot? Exiled Latvians screaming for help on CNN? Scattered reports of political cleansings? Mass graves?

At some point, it's too much to ignore, and that line is not clear.

[Smitty-48]

Fine, but how much 're-education' do you think the west will tolerate, before going hot? Exiled Latvians screaming for help on CNN? Scattered reports of political cleansings? Mass graves?

At some point, it's too much to ignore, and that line is not clear.

With hydrogen bombs in play? I'd say we'd just move the MLR back to Poland, and dig in there, Latvia is expendable downrange; it's not worth a World War, just to defend tiny Belgium, er I mean, Latvia.

We'll support the Latvian Resistance of course, from NATO 1st Army Headquarters; in Warsaw.

[TheReal_ND]

Polan is based AF these days.

[Smitty-48]

Poland is the first of line of defense, the Vistula the first hard defensible line, there's no viable fighting position beyond there, Latvia is inside Ivan's wheelhouse, NATO always said "Forward Defense" for politcal purposes, but the reality was that we were preparing for defense in depth the whole time.

Latvia is expendable downrange; martyrs for the cause, traded for time and space, so we could dig in on a defensible FLOT, soon as the balloon goes up, Latvia is on the far side of the FEBA, no matter what we do, so no sense trying to dig in, right in Ivan's kill zone, any forces left in there, would just be encircled in a Baltic Dunkirk, so don't bother killing troops to no good purpose, just fall back to the MLR on the Vistula.

Everything between Lithuania and the Vistula MLR, that's your NATO 1st Army screen/kill box/buffer zone, the forces in there, would have the job of slowing Ivan down and breaking his formations up, before they could hit the MLR, if Ivan tries to fight through that kill zone, he gets cut to pieces, then we launch the counteroffensive.

If we got all the way back to Lithuania, flags flying, pipes skirling, sabers glinting in the sun, standing over 1st Guards Tank Army all busted to shit, right on his line of communication to Kaliningrad? He's probably gonna be on the brink of going nuclear deescalation at that point, so I'd be prepared to hold there and wait out.

[Okeefenokee]

Polan is based AF these days.

Their roads still suck.

[TheReal_ND]

Polan is based AF these days.

Their roads still suck.

Roads work against your interest in Polan.

[Okeefenokee]

[C-Mag]

Congrats to SAS sniper 1 shot 3 kills
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -shot.html

[Okeefenokee]

Congrats to SAS sniper 1 shot 3 kills
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -shot.html

Magic bullet theory?