Poking the Bear Again

[Smitty-48]

the general theme of all OSINT reports is that tensions are high and both China & Russia are feeling frisky

both Xi & Putin feel comfortable being aggressive right now

the analysis is that America is weak & divided & paralyzed

the Woke are running the Biden Administration, and they are perceived as flailing

the Woke movement can only disrupt things to gain power, but once in power they can't run anything

so there is a full court press against all of America's allies to drive them to capitulation

Britain, Canada, Australia ; China is hammering those allies

France, Germany & the EU ; Russia is ramping the pressure up on them

And they're not wrong as far as I can tell.

at the theater level, the large deployment of Russian troops is actually stabilizing in Ukraine

unlikely the Ukrainians would launch an offensive with the Russians ready to encircle them

I would say Poland interfering in Belarus is actually the more unstable fault line

in terms of the Chinese, they are leveraging the Woke as a weapon, using the cancel culture against America

the Chinese are targeting Corporate America with this, waging economic warfare with their market power

both Russia & China avoiding a direct engagement with the US military, targeting allies & corporations instead

[Smitty-48]

some nice close up views of the latest Russian kit on parade, live audio with engine & track noise

[Smitty-48]

Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

A reporter from one of Germany’s highest-circulating dailies Bild, Julian Ropcke, tweeted Wednesday morning that Belarus deployed its troops to the country’s borders with Ukraine.

“Dictator Lukashenko is also moving the Belarusian army towards the Ukrainian border (here 60 km north of the border of Rivne Oblast),” he said on Twitter.

Photos released Wednesday by Julian Ropcke show large amounts of Belarus’ military hardware, including BTR-80 armored vehicles and military trucks.

The military convoy was filmed on 31 March near Logishin, Belarus.

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/bela ... raine.html

[TheOneX]

Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

A reporter from one of Germany’s highest-circulating dailies Bild, Julian Ropcke, tweeted Wednesday morning that Belarus deployed its troops to the country’s borders with Ukraine.

“Dictator Lukashenko is also moving the Belarusian army towards the Ukrainian border (here 60 km north of the border of Rivne Oblast),” he said on Twitter.

Photos released Wednesday by Julian Ropcke show large amounts of Belarus’ military hardware, including BTR-80 armored vehicles and military trucks.

The military convoy was filmed on 31 March near Logishin, Belarus.

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/bela ... raine.html

What happens if the Ukraine conquers Belarus?

[Smitty-48]

Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

A reporter from one of Germany’s highest-circulating dailies Bild, Julian Ropcke, tweeted Wednesday morning that Belarus deployed its troops to the country’s borders with Ukraine.

“Dictator Lukashenko is also moving the Belarusian army towards the Ukrainian border (here 60 km north of the border of Rivne Oblast),” he said on Twitter.

Photos released Wednesday by Julian Ropcke show large amounts of Belarus’ military hardware, including BTR-80 armored vehicles and military trucks.

The military convoy was filmed on 31 March near Logishin, Belarus.

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/bela ... raine.html

What happens if the Ukraine conquers Belarus?

Ukraine doesn't have the capacity, they have all their forces stacked up in the east

moreover the Russians have 1st Guards Tank Army poised to go into Belarus at a moments notice

[Smitty-48]

the salient questions are, what happens when NATO forces go into Ukraine west of the Dnieper ?

is that NATO official ?

or is it Poland going in without authorization from Brussels ?

what happens if Poland is successful in overthrowing Lukashenka ?

do the Russians go in like they did in Crimea ?

what happens if Ukraine backed by the Biden Administration breaks with the EU and attacks the Donbass ?

does that push the Russians to overreach and incite a theater war ?

[Smitty-48]

what happens if it all kicks of at once in a cascading escalation ?

Ukraine attacks in Donbass, inciting the theater war

Poland goes into Ukraine while overthrowing Lukashenka in Minsk

Russia goes into Belarus up to the Sulwalki Gap to outflank Poland

Turkey attacks in the South Caucasus by proxy Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabackh, NATO crosses the Rubicon

Russia goes into Moldova by way of Transnistria, launches an amphibious invasion of Odessa

NATO moves to Poland to reinforce

Russia takes the Baltic States to defend Kaliningrad, Article V is invoked . . .

[Martin Hash]

Just today China put a 200 vessel "fishing" fleet into the South-China sea off the Philippines.

[Martin Hash]

Biden Exciting Times. This is what Leftists want or it wouldn't be happening.

[Smitty-48]

the Biden Administration is doubling down on the Obama policy

the Russians are intimidating the EU, France & Germany are blaming Ukraine, telling them to knock it off

Washington is saying "fuck the EU" again, telling Ukraine that America has their back against Russia