Cut the Bull Shit. What would war with North Korea look like?

[heydaralon]

North Korea hasn't been keeping it trill for a long time.

[Mercury]

NK has indeed been sketchy as fuck, yet they've had some reasons.

A case, fwiw, against confrontation:

Threatening North Korea with regime change would do nothing to reduce or eliminate threats from North Korea, but it would confirm the regime’s leadership in its conviction that it needs its nuclear weapons and missile programs to fend off an attack. Nothing makes a regime obsessed with its own survival less likely to compromise or negotiate than vowing to overthrow it, and besides attacking North Korea there is nothing that makes a North Korean attack more likely than making their government believe they have nothing left to lose. The less secure the regime feels, the less likely it is to be deterred, so making a concerted effort to undermine them is one of the stupidest things the U.S. could do. If their government didn’t think that the U.S. and its allies were determined to get rid of them, they might be willing to make some concessions, but to reach that point the U.S. would at a minimum have to eschew all talk of regime change and reject the possibility of waging preventive war on the DPRK.

Seeking regime change in North Korea would be extremely dangerous and foolish. It would put millions of lives in jeopardy by risking war with the current regime. In the very unlikely event that this policy somehow “worked” as intended, it would still create massive upheaval that would swamp South Korea with an unmanageable refugee crisis. The preparations that would need to be made to cope with the fall of North Korea’s regime are frankly beyond the competence of the current administration, and might well be beyond the competence of any government, and we already know that the U.S. is remarkably bad at preparing for what follows regime change. We should assume that China would be strongly opposed to a U.S. push for regime change on their doorstep, and by pushing for regime change the U.S. would risk sparking a war with a nuclear-armed major power. In the worst-case scenario, the North Korean leadership might also choose to use their nuclear weapons once they conclude that they aren’t going to survive anyway.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/ ... sile-test/

An out-strategy for the regime might be something to think about.

jus sayin

[Zlaxer]

As much as I hate the PRC - they should annex the North without making the North Koreans citizens, and use it as an excuse to put forces along the DMZ - I'd rather have the PRC on the DMZ than the North.....the PRC may be total pricks - but they''re not desperate like the DPRK. Desperate = unpredictable.....and maybe the PRC could improve the lives of the North Koreans....

[TheReal_ND]

Conflicted tbh. On the one hand I'm really tired of DPRK's antics but on the other I really want to go back to being isolationist. I say either way, if they violate the NAP I want the regime into the ground. As smitty posted a while back, we are facing a trajectory of Best Korea just getting its way till they get what they wanted all along. Don't know what to make of that either.

[Zlaxer]

Conflicted tbh. On the one hand I'm really tired of DPRK's antics but on the other I really want to go back to being isolationist.

On second thought - let the Asians handle this.....

[TheReal_ND]

Well that's what I was onboard with when it looked like China was possibly going to do a joint venture with us against them. I still believe it's possible but probably not in this timeline. And as StA pointed out, our generals would find a way to fuck us if they could somehow.

[Mercury]

As much as I hate the PRC - they should annex the North without making the North Koreans citizens, and use it as an excuse to put forces along the DMZ - I'd rather have the PRC on the DMZ than the North.....the PRC may be total pricks - but they''re not desperate like the DPRK. Desperate = unpredictable.....and maybe the PRC could improve the lives of the North Koreans....

This would be a good scenario, for the US, but why would the Chinese be convinced that they could be better off without the rogue NK as a buffer region against U.S. influence?

The threat of war makes NK dangerous and volatile for China (the threat to SK is, of course, a huge danger for the global economy), but also a dumb strategic asset for which they are, ostensibly, not accountable.

I don't know what would incentivize them besides threat...which would probably incentivize them to maintain the current situation.

If there is a conflict on that peninsula, it's likely to be short and noisy with a long and messy economic fallout.

The burden of annexing NK may be more than the PRC can deal with right now. Their handling of the situation may be ideal,for the west, but what would get them to do it?

[SuburbanFarmer]

I tire of these estimates of "millions" instantly dead via artillery fire. Artillery is simply not that effective, unless those people are standing out in the open for days.

I'd imagine the actual casualties to be around 20% of the projections, at most. NK meanwhile, would be paved within a few days. The only factor that matters here whatsoever, and the only reason that we haven't done it for 60 years, is China.

China, Chyna, CHIENAAHH.

[Ex-California]

I tire of these estimates of "millions" instantly dead via artillery fire. Artillery is simply not that effective, unless those people are standing out in the open for days.

I'd imagine the actual casualties to be around 20% of the projections, at most. NK meanwhile, would be paved within a few days. The only factor that matters here whatsoever, and the only reason that we haven't done it for 60 years, is China.

China, Chyna, CHIENAAHH.

Let them do it.

Treat the Koreans like they're made of tiger dick or elephant tusks

[heydaralon]

I wonder if North Koreans are noticably stupider than South Koreans due to the fact that they are unable to eat as much during pregnancy and the early years of childbirth when the brain needs nutrients to develop. They are shorter than their southern neighbors, it stands to reason they are probably a bit dumber as well.