Monte Hall Hoax

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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:59 pm

Martin Hash wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:52 pm
Anybody who doesn’t use Twitter is cool in my book. Goddamn twits, anyway.
fuckin' aye.

:cheers:
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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SuburbanFarmer
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by SuburbanFarmer » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:00 am

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:50 pm
SuburbanFarmer wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:44 pm
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:49 pm


The interesting question is: if this is true (as most peoples' intuition suggests), then why are the computer models wrong?

I maintain it is because the "Monty opens door 2 or 3" assumption in the decision tree version is a bad assumption that gives switchers better odds in the model than they really have. If that bad assumption is built into the computer models, whelp, bing bang boom - you get 30 years of people spouting claptrap telling you that they are the ones 'following the science.' :twisted:

I could be wrong, though - math is gay, and statistics are the gayest kind of math.
The ‘always switch’ thing comes from people doing ‘math’ and forgetting that in the real world, the car never moved, and Monte will never open a door with a car (because he knows where it is).

Based on that, the ‘choice’ is now whether to change or not. Your odds of making the correct choice are now 50/50, but it makes no difference which choice you make (stay or switch).

You never had more than a 1 in 3 chance at the car.
I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.
Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.
SJWs are a natural consequence of corporatism.

Formerly GrumpyCatFace

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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:01 am

Martin Hash wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:58 pm
I’m never going to get famous at this rate.
Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:03 am

SuburbanFarmer wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:00 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:50 pm
SuburbanFarmer wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:44 pm


The ‘always switch’ thing comes from people doing ‘math’ and forgetting that in the real world, the car never moved, and Monte will never open a door with a car (because he knows where it is).

Based on that, the ‘choice’ is now whether to change or not. Your odds of making the correct choice are now 50/50, but it makes no difference which choice you make (stay or switch).

You never had more than a 1 in 3 chance at the car.
I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.
Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.
Having failed to update my anti-virus software for, like, 400 days and running, neither do I.

But, proving them wrong would be pretty sweet.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:05 am

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:01 am
Martin Hash wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:58 pm
I’m never going to get famous at this rate.
Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.
I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.
Don't propagate lies
What time is it? 1984
Shamedia, Shamdemic, Shamucation, Shamlection, Shamconomy & Shamate Change
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:07 am

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:03 am
SuburbanFarmer wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:00 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:50 pm


I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.
Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.
Having failed to update my anti-virus software for, like, 400 days and running, neither do I.

But, proving them wrong would be pretty sweet.
My free anti-virus software keeps trying to get me to buy it every fucking day. What kind of idiot do they think I am that I would buy something I already get for free: dummies.
Don't propagate lies
What time is it? 1984
Shamedia, Shamdemic, Shamucation, Shamlection, Shamconomy & Shamate Change
Mr. Wysdom
Libertyist
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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:10 am

Martin Hash wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:05 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:01 am
Martin Hash wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:58 pm
I’m never going to get famous at this rate.
Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.
I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.
Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application. ;)
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:14 am

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:10 am
Martin Hash wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:05 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:01 am


Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.
I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.
Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application. ;)
The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.
Don't propagate lies
What time is it? 1984
Shamedia, Shamdemic, Shamucation, Shamlection, Shamconomy & Shamate Change
Mr. Wysdom
Libertyist
Scimonoce
Nonpartisan
Prof. Education

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Hanarchy Montanarchy
The Conservative
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Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:54 am

Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:17 am

Martin Hash wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:14 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:10 am
Martin Hash wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:05 am

I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.
Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application. ;)
The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.
I have the same response to computer viruses as I have to the China Virus.

I am nothing if not consistent.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:20 am

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:17 am
Martin Hash wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:14 am
Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:10 am


Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application. ;)
The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.
I have the same response to computer viruses as I have to the China Virus.

I am nothing if not consistent.
In that case, besides “gambler,” what other life experience do you have? I know you’re expert at mocking and pissing off other people, and zero ability to compromise... Did I miss anything?
Don't propagate lies
What time is it? 1984
Shamedia, Shamdemic, Shamucation, Shamlection, Shamconomy & Shamate Change
Mr. Wysdom
Libertyist
Scimonoce
Nonpartisan
Prof. Education