Preparing for Uncertainty and Self Reliance

[TheReal_ND]

When I was a kid I went deep sea fishing and caught cod and halibut in Alaska with my grandparents. I think the only attraction is filling a freezer full of meat and the beautiful view because the actual fishing is really boring, even by fishing standards. You just cut up some bait and put a giant sinker on a giant pole and let it go all the way to the bottom off the side of the boat. Every once in a while you check the line by bouncing the weight off the bottom, and this is where all the skill involved in this kind of fishing comes in; determining whether the weight you feel when you pull up is your sinker under 300 feet of ocean or a fish. If you determine it's a fish you just reel it in that's it. No kind of right or anything really.

Anyway, fry them. Cod and halibut are good fried.

[brewster]

The book on salt I read devoted an entire section to Cod fish industry.

Same author, Mark Kurlansky. The salt book was weird, sections on the ancient trade in non-NaCl salts across the Sahara. I don't think I finished it.

[C-Mag]

The book on salt I read devoted an entire section to Cod fish industry.

Same author, Mark Kurlansky. The salt book was weird, sections on the ancient trade in non-NaCl salts across the Sahara. I don't think I finished it.

I thought I was the only weirdo that read shit like that.

It was a tough read, but cool at the same time. The ties to tobacco was interesting. The historical context of how many wars revolved around salt was stunning, and that the last salt war was in the 20th C

[SuburbanFarmer]

That was a pretty great book, actually.

[brewster]

My wife has a thesis about certain non-fiction books, that too many of them are really just overblown articles where they repeat themselves ad nauseam. She even felt that way about Guns, Germs and Steel.

Back to peak oil, driving around this afternoon I recalled more about the economics that I was trying to explain. It's all about 'demand elasticity'. StA believes that people will keep consuming at the same rate even as supplies dwindle and prices will go up infinitely. But that rarely happens. There's dozens of ways to conserve, from turning down thermostats in the short-term to buying smaller homes & vehicles in the long. Much of the 1st world already pays twice or more what we do for gasoline. Civilization there has not fallen.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/

Will winter fresh produce cost more post Peak Oil? Sure. But should it have really been so cheap? And if it goes up that opens up market niches for higher-cost local producers.

[SuburbanFarmer]

There are a whole lot of us looking forward to that.

[brewster]

There are a whole lot of us looking forward to that.

It'll be interesting for sure. A lot of paradigms will change. I wonder what it will take to break the western water mess, where big ag gets the majority of the water virtually free from government projects, or they are pumping aquifers dry. Eastern farms could never compete with a watered desert and petro-fertilizers. Vast amounts of farmland have gone fallow that couldn't compete with CA produce or Midwestern grain. Will there be a tipping point? Or will the elasticity of the markets deal with a steadily rising price of fossil fuel?

[SuburbanFarmer]

There are a whole lot of us looking forward to that.

It'll be interesting for sure. A lot of paradigms will change. I wonder what it will take to break the western water mess, where big ag gets the majority of the water virtually free from government projects, or they are pumping aquifers dry. Eastern farms could never compete with a watered desert and petro-fertilizers. Vast amounts of farmland have gone fallow that couldn't compete with CA produce or Midwestern grain. Will there be a tipping point? Or will the elasticity of the markets deal with a steadily rising price of fossil fuel?

If it rises steadily, yes. But at some point, there’s a panic in the market, and things get weird.

[brewster]

There are a whole lot of us looking forward to that.

It'll be interesting for sure. A lot of paradigms will change. I wonder what it will take to break the western water mess, where big ag gets the majority of the water virtually free from government projects, or they are pumping aquifers dry. Eastern farms could never compete with a watered desert and petro-fertilizers. Vast amounts of farmland have gone fallow that couldn't compete with CA produce or Midwestern grain. Will there be a tipping point? Or will the elasticity of the markets deal with a steadily rising price of fossil fuel?

If it rises steadily, yes. But at some point, there’s a panic in the market, and things get weird.

Oh there will be panic, and then it will cycle again. Rinse and repeat. When I was a teen my friends and I were sent by our parents in the family car to wait in blocks long lines for our gas ration on the alternate days we were allowed to. Shit comes, and goes. That's what it does. Real trends move slower.

[C-Mag]

Your Doomsday Prepper Report

• China's food supply is being imperiled as new reports warn that up to 50 percent of China's 440 million pigs are now at risk from African Swine Fever infection.
• The African Swine Fever has jumped the Chinese border to over 52 cities in Vietnam, leading to the culling of more than 2 million pigs.
• The Fall Armyworm has spread to 220,000 acres in Southern China, ruining primarily corn and some sugarcane crops.
• Illinois, the nation’s second-largest producer of corn, is off to the slowest start to a planting season on record, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. As of June 2, Illinois farmers have only been able to sow corn seed in 45% of the acreage dedicated to the crop, 53% below the five-year average.
• Of the seeds that have been laid, only 32% have emerged, a 59% decline compared with the past five years.
• Thanks to Trump, there will be no Guacamole available during TEOTWAWKI. Stock up now and barter Guac for lifesaving meds.