The Armory - Guns, Knives, and Axes

[heydaralon]

To calculate the Russian war plans, you have to get out of the Soviet paradigm.

They're not the Soviets, they're not that big, not even close, so they can't fight like the Soviets.

The Russians would operate asymmetrically, covert and deniable.

They're not going to launch a blitzkrieg, it would be more like war by sabotage

The world is totally dependent on everything flowing smoothly, arriving just in time.

The Russians would exploit that, to bring the West to sue for peace on favorable terms for Russia.

What is Putin's end game strategically? Obviously they do not have the resources to conquer Europe, but what are his longterm geopolitical goals. Do you think the Ukrainian war was just a steam release valve for domestic pressure? You have mentioned that Putin doesn't really control Russia and that fundamentally that state is chaotic. If Putin went under, who would take his place? Would it be a military coup?

[Smitty-48]

To calculate the Russian war plans, you have to get out of the Soviet paradigm.

They're not the Soviets, they're not that big, not even close, so they can't fight like the Soviets.

The Russians would operate asymmetrically, covert and deniable.

They're not going to launch a blitzkrieg, it would be more like war by sabotage

The world is totally dependent on everything flowing smoothly, arriving just in time.

The Russians would exploit that, to bring the West to sue for peace on favorable terms for Russia.

What is Putin's end game strategically? Obviously they do not have the resources to conquer Europe, but what are his longterm geopolitical goals. Do you think the Ukrainian war was just a steam release valve for domestic pressure? You have mentioned that Putin doesn't really control Russia and that fundamentally that state is chaotic. If Putin went under, who would take his place? Would it be a military coup?

The power structure now is a kleptocracy run by the Oligarchs conspiring with the Siloviki

Putin is the leader of the Siloviki, who has amassed the power of an Oligarch, King of the Oligarchs.

It's practically like a monarchy, Putin is like a pseudo Czar.

But just like the Czar, he's not really in control, but he dominates because all the alternatives are worse.

I would say the end game is to die in his sleep at a ripe old age, having never been overthrown.

Ukraine is about the Black Sea. NATO is creeping into the Black Sea, the Russians are maneuvering to counter.

It's all about the Bosporus Strait. The Russians depend on it, so control of the Bosporus is the mission

In terms of who comes after Putin ? I'd say it goes back the chaos of the 90's with the Oligarchs running amok

That's why nobody wants to get rid of Putin, he's the guy who negotiates an assemblance of order.

He's the linchpin which binds the rich people with the military, otherwise known as a King.

[Hastur]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

[heydaralon]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

holy shit that is awesome. Reminds me of how ants walk in lines to and from their colonies. This kind of shit makes me kind of depressed because it puts into perspective visually how little 99.99% of us matter.

[Smitty-48]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

Exactly. The Sea Lines Of Communications (SLOC)

They've always been imperative, but with this level of interdependence, they are threshold existential now

Thus the Russians don't have to launch a blitzkrieg

All they have to do is launch a bunch of monkey wrenches into the machinery and everything goes haywire

Then they wait for you to come to table on their terms.

[heydaralon]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

Exactly. The Sea Lines Of Communications (SLOC)

They've always been important, but with this level of interdependence, they are threshold existential now

Thus the Russians don't have to launch a Blitzkrieg, rather a bunch of monkey wrenches tossed into the machinery.

We should pre-emptively nuke them, to prevent them from fucking up those shipping lanes. We need plausible deniability. I'm fine with making a deal with France or the UK: Nuke the shit out of Russia, make it so that there is no life there, and you can move in and have all the resources. The reason we need to nuke them by proxy is so that if they retaliate, it won't be at America. If one of our Euro Allies moves in, we can always renege on the deal and fight them later. What is France gonna do, go on strike and write some faggy Stalinist Le Monde article?

[Smitty-48]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

Exactly. The Sea Lines Of Communications (SLOC)

They've always been important, but with this level of interdependence, they are threshold existential now

Thus the Russians don't have to launch a Blitzkrieg, rather a bunch of monkey wrenches tossed into the machinery.

We should pre-emptively nuke them, to prevent them from fucking up those shipping lanes. We need plausible deniability. I'm fine with making a deal with France or the UK: Nuke the shit out of Russia, make it so that there is no life there, and you can move in and have all the resources. The reason we need to nuke them by proxy is so that if they retaliate, it won't be at America. If one of our Euro Allies moves in, we can always renege on the deal and fight them later. What is France gonna do, go on strike and write some faggy Stalinist Le Monde article?

That's their ace in the hole.

They still possess the Soviets massive thermonuclear arsenal

That's how they could get away with it, they can smash the machinery, but you can't attack them directly

A war with Russia would be like a giant insurgency, they would fight more like Iran than they would the USSR

They can launch attacks against the global supply chain from the sea, but we can't hit them back directly.

[heydaralon]

I think LeMay and MacArthur were 100% correct. We should have nuked the USSR and China when we had the chance. We should have nuked them on a yearly basis just to keep them in the stone age.

We also should have nuked Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Angola, Ethiopia, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Korea (both), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Panama, Grenada, Chile, Salvador, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Pakistan etc.

Offense is the best defense.

[Montegriffo]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

Exactly. The Sea Lines Of Communications (SLOC)

They've always been imperative, but with this level of interdependence, they are threshold existential now

Thus the Russians don't have to launch a blitzkrieg

All they have to do is launch a bunch of monkey wrenches into the machinery and everything goes haywire

Then they wait for you to come to table on their terms.

They aren't immune though, wouldn't they just be shooting themselves in the foot as well?
Just a different kind of MAD.

[Smitty-48]

This is what it's about.
https://www.shipmap.org/

Exactly. The Sea Lines Of Communications (SLOC)

They've always been imperative, but with this level of interdependence, they are threshold existential now

Thus the Russians don't have to launch a blitzkrieg

All they have to do is launch a bunch of monkey wrenches into the machinery and everything goes haywire

Then they wait for you to come to table on their terms.

They aren't immune though, wouldn't they just be shooting themselves in the foot as well?
Just a different kind of MAD.

No, because they are the only ones who are not reliant on the SLOCs

They have their own oil, they have the interior lines, they don't rely on the sea like everybody else, in a war.

They actually become exponentially more powerful, as the only Hegemon not dependent on the SLOCs

They have the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic, they have the land lines of communication.

Iran can close the Straits of Hormuz, Russia can do that to every Strait on earth, and then wait us out.