The Mess

[Smitty-48]

That sounds like good policy to me, actually..

Make a machine gun that only kills enemy soldiers, and you'll see the world paved with their bodies within a year.

Well there's two main flaws in the policy as I see it, number one, it's Douhetism, it's what Douhet asserted after the First World War, in that, aerial bombardment would be so terrible, that it would in effect end destructive wars, because nobody would ever fight one in the face of it, which did of course come a cropper relatively quickly thereafter, in the Second World War.

But more importantly, the rubric is based on the false assumption that the belligerents will actually have precise control of their nuclear deterrents in the event of a confrontation, and that all came a cropper, with the Cuban Missile Crisis, which not only demonstrated that the belligerents would in fact go to the brink of a nuclear war, even over an issue so minor as West Berlin, but also, that when they did, they were not actually in precise control of what they had unleased towards each other, and in the end, it was just dumb luck that they didn't stumble over the point of no return therein.

To wit, I would submit, not preparing for a nuclear war because you are assuming that war is so terrible that nobody is ever going to fight one again, is the the sort of delusion which comes back to bite you, when that all comes a cropper in the end, as it has every single time said delusion has become prevalent. It's been said over and over, each new type of war is too terrible to fight, followed thereafter, by one being fought regardless.

This is what I call "The Rational Arbitrage Delusion". Applying rational arbitrage, to things which are either inhrently irrational in of themselves and/or not subject to rationality as they are beyond your precise control.

[SuburbanFarmer]

There is no preparation for a nuclear war. I do, however, grow and stockpile food for other disasters.
Not sure what you have in mind.

If you want me to pretend that it won't end life on this planet, sure... Makes no difference in the end, I suppose. Apparently, we'll find out when it's been rationalized down to 'well it'll only kill the people we target with it, so let's go for it'.

[Smitty-48]

Oh, I didn't mean preparation at the individual level, that delusion would be that you are somehow in control of your own destiny as it relates to interstate organized industrial violence at the strategic level, which of course you are not, I mean't prepare for stragetically, within the chain of command which is actually drving the bus towards an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Prepping is of course pointless, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb, never said it wasn't. I suppose it could be argued that it is a morale booster, but morale is also irrelevant, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb.

[Montegriffo]

an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Really, Christmas chats round the fire at château Smitz must be depressing.

[Smitty-48]

an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Really, Christmas chats round the fire at château Smitz must be depressing.

I didn't make the world, I just analyze the situation therein relating to the inevitably recurring nature of interstate violence at the strategic level via the industrial paradigm in the face of the rational arbitrage delusion.

Even Santa Claus is not so foolish, as to beleive that there will not be a nuclear war cuz nuclear war, Santa is fully aware of the perils of the rational arbitrage delusion, were I to propogate said delusion knowingly, Santa would put me on his shit list and then I wouldn't get my bottle of Lagavulin on Christmas Day.

What Santa's opinion is of the neutron bomb, I do not know, but in that case, I would say Santa should probably just stick to his lane and let me get my stroll on. Don't step to me, Santa, I appreciate the presents n' all, but don't ever think that means you can buy me off, you fat fuck.

[skankhunt42]

Oh, I didn't mean preparation at the individual level, that delusion would be that you are somehow in control of your own destiny as it relates to interstate organized industrial violence at the strategic level, which of course you are not, I mean't prepare for stragetically, within the chain of command which is actually drving the bus towards an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Prepping is of course pointless, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb, never said it wasn't. I suppose it could be argued that it is a morale booster, but morale is also irrelevant, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb.

Inevitable is a bit dramatic don't you think? You know you can't possibly know that. You sound like a cult leader with that kind of rhetoric.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Oh, I didn't mean preparation at the individual level, that delusion would be that you are somehow in control of your own destiny as it relates to interstate organized industrial violence at the strategic level, which of course you are not, I mean't prepare for stragetically, within the chain of command which is actually drving the bus towards an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Prepping is of course pointless, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb, never said it wasn't. I suppose it could be argued that it is a morale booster, but morale is also irrelevant, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb.

Inevitable is a bit dramatic don't you think? You know you can't possibly know that. You sound like a cult leader with that kind of rhetoric.

That's exactly what he is, around here.

I have to agree though, that nuclear war is all but inevitable if someone in the Mexican standoff doesn't lower their gun.

[Smitty-48]

Inevitable is a bit dramatic don't you think? You know you can't possibly know that. You sound like a cult leader with that kind of rhetoric.

Merely the cult of logical extrapolation, the interstate confrontations are manifest, eventually, they will reach a Rubicon at some sort, at which point the esclatory ladder to invoking the nuclear deterrent is baked right into the cake by the balance of terror therein, but moreover, nuclear confrontations are in effect all around us as we speak, when President Obama flies a B-52 to Korea to engage in what is called strategic warning, that's a nuclear confrontation therein, it's just at the base of the escalatory ladder having not yet reached a Rubicon.

The balance of terror itself, is an ongoing nuclear confrontation, it is merely what we refer to as a "frozen conflict", none the less, the conflict persists, no nuclear armistice nor peace has ever been delcared and certainly has never been ratified by any party.

To wit, deterrence is merely deterrence, if it was nuclear assurance, they would have called it that. History does not quibble on this point; wars happen, inevitably, in the age of nuclear deterrence, all wars are ultimately nuclear wars, simply a question of where on the escalatory ladder they are at any given moment.

Reality check, you're not at the bottom of the escalatory ladder with Russia, quite the opposite in fact; 15 minutes notice to launch on warning is 15 minutes from the brink of total war at all times, by any definition, that is a perilous hair trigger paradigm, to say that it is "cultish" to assert that it is not sustainable for all time, seems quite disengenous to me.

The trajectory is what it is, I merely extrapolate the reality of an impact point along it. When the trajectory changes I will reassess, but the current trajectory, is simply not sustainable in perpetuity, entropy is the natue of the unviverse, that is to say, shit happens, if you give it enough time.

I would submit, it is rather those who assert the current trajectory paradigm to be sustainable for all time without entropic decay, who are in fact the ones in the cult, the cult of rational arbitrage with the inhrently irrational and/or beyond precise control.

[Montegriffo]

Oh, I didn't mean preparation at the individual level, that delusion would be that you are somehow in control of your own destiny as it relates to interstate organized industrial violence at the strategic level, which of course you are not, I mean't prepare for stragetically, within the chain of command which is actually drving the bus towards an inevitable nuclear confrontation.

Prepping is of course pointless, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb, never said it wasn't. I suppose it could be argued that it is a morale booster, but morale is also irrelevant, in the face of countervalue nuclear exchange by hydrogen bomb.

Inevitable is a bit dramatic don't you think? You know you can't possibly know that. You sound like a cult leader with that kind of rhetoric.

That's exactly what he is, around here.


I have to agree though, that nuclear war is all but inevitable if someone in the Mexican standoff doesn't lower their gun.

You have that back to front. It's more inevitable if one side lowers his gun. MAD is what keeps the peace.
What you should do is give Russia some of your nukes to even things up.

[Smitty-48]

You have that back to front. It's more inevitable if one side lowers his gun. MAD is what keeps the peace.

Not quite right I'm afraid, mutual vulnerability is a permanent state of war, there is no peace, merely war by other means until such time as a rubicon is reached, or entropy incites a conflagration by missaprehension, miscalculation, or mistake.

Contrary to popular sentiment, nation states are not actually rational actors, and consistent with newtonian causality, entropic decay is the nature of all systems.

To wit, collectively, people are nuts, and given enough time, shit happens.