Preparing for Uncertainty and Self Reliance

[SuburbanFarmer]

Oh, you are going to hate the characterizations. He kind of has a point there, though..

Where I think he was wrong was on how many people would die from starvation in a year. The fact that fat asses are on youtube going months without eating should indicate there is a problem with some of his assumptions.

I already do. 1/4 of the way through, and every female is a sexually attractive maiden in distress, and Main Character is Rambo with daughters to protect.

Not sure if I'll make it through this one lol

Finished the book. It scared the hell outta me.

I don't agree that we lose 50-80% of the population, but we'd probably lose a serious chunk of them. No way the midwest loses 50%, even in a total breakdown. Disease has never killed more than 30%, unless you're talking plague, and we all have at least some resistance to the really bad stuff. NYC probably does wind up with a few haunted scavengers remaining, but a big chunk of them would migrate out to greater New England. Florida and the far West would revert to wasteland, Midwest would be fine.

Stuff like barbarian gangs would be bad at first, until people got organized. Hard to say how far you'd have to be out in the sticks to remain unaffected. I guess that depends on their mobility, but you could always bury a stash of food, if it's starting to go that way.

All of those with pill dependencies would die off, diabetics, elderly, dialysis, etc, etc... Babies would have some chance, depending on resources available.

I remember hearing something on CNN during the nork missile test that chilled me to the bone. Their pentagon correspondent, an older woman, mentioned that it was unusual because they were firing the missiles way up high into the stratosphere, rather than a ballistic 45-degree course. This might be very real, at some point...

[Speaker to Animals]

Oh, you are going to hate the characterizations. He kind of has a point there, though..

Where I think he was wrong was on how many people would die from starvation in a year. The fact that fat asses are on youtube going months without eating should indicate there is a problem with some of his assumptions.

I already do. 1/4 of the way through, and every female is a sexually attractive maiden in distress, and Main Character is Rambo with daughters to protect.

Not sure if I'll make it through this one lol

Finished the book. It scared the hell outta me.

I don't agree that we lose 50-80% of the population, but we'd probably lose a serious chunk of them. No way the midwest loses 50%, even in a total breakdown. Disease has never killed more than 30%, unless you're talking plague, and we all have at least some resistance to the really bad stuff. NYC probably does wind up with a few haunted scavengers remaining, but a big chunk of them would migrate out to greater New England. Florida and the far West would revert to wasteland, Midwest would be fine.

Stuff like barbarian gangs would be bad at first, until people got organized. Hard to say how far you'd have to be out in the sticks to remain unaffected. I guess that depends on their mobility, but you could always bury a stash of food, if it's starting to go that way.

All of those with pill dependencies would die off, diabetics, elderly, dialysis, etc, etc... Babies would have some chance, depending on resources available.

I remember hearing something on CNN during the nork missile test that chilled me to the bone. Their pentagon correspondent, an older woman, mentioned that it was unusual because they were firing the missiles way up high into the stratosphere, rather than a ballistic 45-degree course. This might be very real, at some point...

Like I have been saying for a while now, a CONUS-wide EMP shutdown seems to be NK's plan.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I already do. 1/4 of the way through, and every female is a sexually attractive maiden in distress, and Main Character is Rambo with daughters to protect.

Not sure if I'll make it through this one lol

Finished the book. It scared the hell outta me.

I don't agree that we lose 50-80% of the population, but we'd probably lose a serious chunk of them. No way the midwest loses 50%, even in a total breakdown. Disease has never killed more than 30%, unless you're talking plague, and we all have at least some resistance to the really bad stuff. NYC probably does wind up with a few haunted scavengers remaining, but a big chunk of them would migrate out to greater New England. Florida and the far West would revert to wasteland, Midwest would be fine.

Stuff like barbarian gangs would be bad at first, until people got organized. Hard to say how far you'd have to be out in the sticks to remain unaffected. I guess that depends on their mobility, but you could always bury a stash of food, if it's starting to go that way.

All of those with pill dependencies would die off, diabetics, elderly, dialysis, etc, etc... Babies would have some chance, depending on resources available.

I remember hearing something on CNN during the nork missile test that chilled me to the bone. Their pentagon correspondent, an older woman, mentioned that it was unusual because they were firing the missiles way up high into the stratosphere, rather than a ballistic 45-degree course. This might be very real, at some point...

Like I have been saying for a while now, a CONUS-wide EMP shutdown seems to be NK's plan.

Well, they aren't doing it from there, but the nuclear shrimp trawler is looking pretty feasible.

I'm not sure how much shipping they're doing, but I've also heard snippets about possible arms sales to Iran and Libya.

[Speaker to Animals]

The problem with the Midwest is that a lot of that area is totally indefensible without a relatively organized militia or even an army. After reading this novel, you have some idea of how we can defend the area I live in. Our main problem is Asheville and all the liberals therein. Other than that, there are only a few directions to get into the area and only two major interstates, which aren't really major routes anyway. We are kind of out of the way here. Also, the mountains provide us with choke points like the one the main character of that novel took advantage of between Black Mountain and Old Fort.

But where you live, there exists a much higher population density in nearby cities *and* people can come at you from any direction. You also are in the middle of the bread basket, and a lot of urbanites will likely head out there, thinking that's the source of the food so they might as well go there.

I think Forstchen makes some mistakes in that he drastically underestimates the carrying capacity of the region and he also underestimates the willingness of communities to work together for common defense. He lives up the road in Black Mountain, which doesn't have a lot of farm fields. But not far south of him there are LOTS of fields and even orchards. Even then, mountains actually have a higher capacity than he assumed because we know that Andean people managed pretty large populations in even more mountainous terrain using organized labor applied to farm terraces.

I really don't think you have any advantage whatsoever in the Midwest. You have no defensive advantage at all. Your food yield advantage in good years is amazing, but after an EMP like that, it's not going to be vastly different than us in the mountains.

You are also plum in the middle of the fallout if a more traditional exchange occurred in the aftermath (which is not unlikely in my opinion). I wouldn't want to be living under the Jet Stream. Worst I would have to deal with is maybe Oak Ridge Labs getting nailed in a traditional nuclear exchange.

[C-Mag]

The problem with the Midwest is that a lot of that area is totally indefensible without a relatively organized militia or even an army. After reading this novel, you have some idea of how we can defend the area I live in. Our main problem is Asheville and all the liberals therein. Other than that, there are only a few directions to get into the area and only two major interstates, which aren't really major routes anyway. We are kind of out of the way here. Also, the mountains provide us with choke points like the one the main character of that novel took advantage of between Black Mountain and Old Fort.

But where you live, there exists a much higher population density in nearby cities *and* people can come at you from any direction. You also are in the middle of the bread basket, and a lot of urbanites will likely head out there, thinking that's the source of the food so they might as well go there.

I think Forstchen makes some mistakes in that he drastically underestimates the carrying capacity of the region and he also underestimates the willingness of communities to work together for common defense. He lives up the road in Black Mountain, which doesn't have a lot of farm fields. But not far south of him there are LOTS of fields and even orchards. Even then, mountains actually have a higher capacity than he assumed because we know that Andean people managed pretty large populations in even more mountainous terrain using organized labor applied to farm terraces.

I really don't think you have any advantage whatsoever in the Midwest. You have no defensive advantage at all. Your food yield advantage in good years is amazing, but after an EMP like that, it's not going to be vastly different than us in the mountains.

You are also plum in the middle of the fallout if a more traditional exchange occurred in the aftermath (which is not unlikely in my opinion). I wouldn't want to be living under the Jet Stream. Worst I would have to deal with is maybe Oak Ridge Labs getting nailed in a traditional nuclear exchange.

The Midwest would generally be in good shape, the state and area in that state would affect it. Take for instance Missouri, thick woods, Ozarks, plenty of water, good growing season. It wouldn't be bad. The only major population center is St Louis on the Eastern edge of the state.

Nebraska, no Major urban centers, get 2 counties from Lincoln and not much, Platte River runs through the state. Who's going to get to you as a threat. Kansas, very similar. The Dakotas, harsher environment, sparsely populated. I like the Midwest.

[Speaker to Animals]

The problem with the Midwest is that a lot of that area is totally indefensible without a relatively organized militia or even an army. After reading this novel, you have some idea of how we can defend the area I live in. Our main problem is Asheville and all the liberals therein. Other than that, there are only a few directions to get into the area and only two major interstates, which aren't really major routes anyway. We are kind of out of the way here. Also, the mountains provide us with choke points like the one the main character of that novel took advantage of between Black Mountain and Old Fort.

But where you live, there exists a much higher population density in nearby cities *and* people can come at you from any direction. You also are in the middle of the bread basket, and a lot of urbanites will likely head out there, thinking that's the source of the food so they might as well go there.

I think Forstchen makes some mistakes in that he drastically underestimates the carrying capacity of the region and he also underestimates the willingness of communities to work together for common defense. He lives up the road in Black Mountain, which doesn't have a lot of farm fields. But not far south of him there are LOTS of fields and even orchards. Even then, mountains actually have a higher capacity than he assumed because we know that Andean people managed pretty large populations in even more mountainous terrain using organized labor applied to farm terraces.

I really don't think you have any advantage whatsoever in the Midwest. You have no defensive advantage at all. Your food yield advantage in good years is amazing, but after an EMP like that, it's not going to be vastly different than us in the mountains.

You are also plum in the middle of the fallout if a more traditional exchange occurred in the aftermath (which is not unlikely in my opinion). I wouldn't want to be living under the Jet Stream. Worst I would have to deal with is maybe Oak Ridge Labs getting nailed in a traditional nuclear exchange.

The Midwest would generally be in good shape, the state and area in that state would affect it. Take for instance Missouri, thick woods, Ozarks, plenty of water, good growing season. It wouldn't be bad. The only major population center is St Louis on the Eastern edge of the state.

Nebraska, no Major urban centers, get 2 counties from Lincoln and not much, Platte River runs through the state. Who's going to get to you as a threat. Kansas, very similar. The Dakotas, harsher environment, sparsely populated. I like the Midwest.

I was talking about Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Nebraska might be okay.

You don't want to be too close to the missile fields or downwind of them.

[C-Mag]

Finished the book. It scared the hell outta me.

I don't agree that we lose 50-80% of the population, but we'd probably lose a serious chunk of them. No way the midwest loses 50%, even in a total breakdown. Disease has never killed more than 30%, unless you're talking plague, and we all have at least some resistance to the really bad stuff. NYC probably does wind up with a few haunted scavengers remaining, but a big chunk of them would migrate out to greater New England. Florida and the far West would revert to wasteland, Midwest would be fine.

Stuff like barbarian gangs would be bad at first, until people got organized. Hard to say how far you'd have to be out in the sticks to remain unaffected. I guess that depends on their mobility, but you could always bury a stash of food, if it's starting to go that way.

All of those with pill dependencies would die off, diabetics, elderly, dialysis, etc, etc... Babies would have some chance, depending on resources available.

I remember hearing something on CNN during the nork missile test that chilled me to the bone. Their pentagon correspondent, an older woman, mentioned that it was unusual because they were firing the missiles way up high into the stratosphere, rather than a ballistic 45-degree course. This might be very real, at some point...

It's a book that makes you think. I thought the death tolls were a little high too as well.

Being out in the sticks presents its own problems, read what FerFal has to say about Argentina during the currency collapse. Rural folks had tons of trouble with roving raiders. Just pick off a farm that isn't well defended. But you're right in this scenario, there will be damn little mobility. But I feel Forstchen overrates the effectiveness of an EMP attack. I think a lot more electronics and vehicles are going to survive. If it's stored in a storage container or metal building it's a Faraday Cage.

He did a great job with the waves of die off, those cycles seem accurate.

[C-Mag]

I was talking about Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Nebraska might be okay.

You don't want to be too close to the missile fields or downwind of them.

Yeah, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are F'd. Not to the extent of Northeast Corridor from Richmond, VA to Agusta, Maine. That corridor would be a 200 mile swath of death and chaos. But the Rust Belt Cities would be just about as bad.

[Speaker to Animals]

You can see where he wrote the main character trapping that cannibal army and lighting them on fire about half way through this:




It's actually a perfect spot for it.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I was talking about Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Nebraska might be okay.

You don't want to be too close to the missile fields or downwind of them.

Yeah, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are F'd. Not to the extent of Northeast Corridor from Richmond, VA to Agusta, Maine. That corridor would be a 200 mile swath of death and chaos. But the Rust Belt Cities would be just about as bad.

Well, in a surface-burst exchange, we're all fucked, no matter where we live. Just playing with the EMP idea, for the moment.

Without any fallout concerns, it's just a matter of food and defense. If there's enough food to go around, then defense takes a backseat. I think full breakdown would be a far smaller risk in an area like this, as there's certainly no shortage of food. There's also a strong tradition of homesteading, hunting, and preparedness. I like my chances here, better than anywhere, actually. Just need to get further out in the sticks, for isolation.