The Mess

[Smitty-48]

There's no "propaganda coup" to be had in the Baltics, that's just more balderdash, Russian Active Measures don't work in the face of a non-compliant population, there's no support for the Russians in the Baltics, not even amongst the ethnic Russians living there, the assertion that the Baltic's are ripe for Russian subversion is, again, hysteria.

The only way the Russians could take the Baltics, would be by surprise attack, executed by the Spetsnaz GRU and VDV, which would be a major escalation, which would only be in extremis, and we're simply not there at the moment.

If Curonian is, as you say, asserting an imminent threat of a Russian attack on the Baltic's, then he is, as I say, an hysterical nonsense peddler, but I already knew that.

[SuburbanFarmer]

There's no "propaganda coup" to be had in the Baltics, that's just more balderdash, Russian Active Measures don't work in the face of a non-compliant population, there's no support for the Russians in the Baltics, not even amongst the ethnic Russians living there, the assertion that the Baltic's are ripe for Russian subversion is, again, hysteria.

The only way the Russians could take the Baltics, would be by surprise attack, executed by the Spetsnaz GRU and VDV, which would be a major escalation, which would only be in extremis, and we're simply not there at the moment.

Welp, despite your military knowledge, I'll take the word of a Latvian citizen and friend over your Canuck ass, on the disposition of the Latvian people.

He's very convincing in stating that the Latvian society is pivoting toward Russian influence. That's a primary source, no matter how much you may wish to argue it.

[Speaker to Animals]

LOL, no serious person thinks the Latvians know what even the Latvians want or need.

It's all USSR to me. I liked it better when that whole area was simpler.

[Smitty-48]

Welp, despite your military knowledge, I'll take the word of a Latvian citizen and friend over your Canuck ass, on the disposition of the Latvian people.

He's very convincing in stating that the Latvian society is pivoting toward Russian influence. That's a primary source, no matter how much you may wish to argue it.

Well that would be foolish, because not only is my knowledge of the actual situation exponentially better researched and advised than Curonian's, but as a Latvian, he has a tendency to vastly overstate the threat, it's what they do over there, they're hysterical about the Russians, but that in of itself impairs their judgement, and makes them prone to screeching "ZOMG Russia!", rather than engaging in clear eyed analysis.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Welp, despite your military knowledge, I'll take the word of a Latvian citizen and friend over your Canuck ass, on the disposition of the Latvian people.

He's very convincing in stating that the Latvian society is pivoting toward Russian influence. That's a primary source, no matter how much you may wish to argue it.

Well that would be foolish, because not only is my knowledge of the actual situation exponentially better researched and advised than Curonian's, but as a Latvian, he has a tendency to vastly overstate the threat, it's what they do over there, they're hysterical about the Russians, but that in of itself impairs their judgement, and makes them prone to hysteria rather than clear eyed analysis.

Then I propose that we keep an eye on the Baltic region for the next 4-5 months, and see if he's right. If so, I'll expect a full admission of fallacy. If not, I'll do the same.

Meanwhile, listen to the fucking podcast. It's very, very good.

[Smitty-48]

I don't listen to Curonian, he's a nice enough fellow, but he is simply not analytical about the Russians, like most ethnic Latvians, his portrayal of the Russians is cartoonish, a caricature rather than a rational assessment.

I keep a close eye on the Baltic's, but as of this juncture, the situation is stable, I do not foresee any Russian military nor paramilitary action on the Baltic front, barring a clear and present escalation at the strategic level, other than their ongoing manuevers to demonstrate resolve in the face of NATO, which at this point, has settled back down into a routine.

Again, you'll see the strategic escalation occur before you see the Russian reaction to it; threat to Kaliningrad, threat to regime in Belarus, NATO military incursion into Ukraine, destabilization of the Kremlin; none of which are in effect at this juncture.

A Russian attack on the Baltic's of any kind, out of the blue for no apparent reason, without some sort of major escalation at the strategic level first? Balderdash.

[Okeefenokee]

[Smitty-48]

The key thing to understand about the Russian strategy, is that they are seeking strategic balance, the United States asserts "Full Spectrum Dominance", the Russians are in the business of demonstrating that the United States is not capable of dominating them thusly.

Within the context of this Russian assertion of independance and resolve to defend their sovereignty, and to maintain conventional and nuclear deterrence therein, they are not in any way irrational actors, all their responses to NATO have been rational and calculated to a tee, everything they do has a purpose, and when they do something, they do it in response to something that they have perceived the United States/NATO doing first, from Missile Defense to the Maidan, the Russians don't launch into operations to no purpose without being ostensibly provoked into having a pretext to do so.

There would be no purpose in a sudden and unprovoked attack on the Baltic's, not symmetrical, nor assymetrical, nor otherwise, there would have to be some major reason for them to do that, and it would have to be extremis, because an attack on NATO, is extremis by default, which would likely spin rapidly out of control, the Russians could and likely would get in way over their heads there, very quickly, to the brink of World War Three in fact, and the Russians well know it, so it would be an extremely high risk gambit to say the least, a last resort in the face of a major escalation on the part of the United States/NATO, and as of right now, no such escalation is in effect.

In an operational sense, while it is plausible that the Russians could sieze the Baltic States in a surprise attack employing 2nd Guards Spetsnaz GRU, 76th Guards Airborne/Air Assault VDV, along with the 336th and 61st Guards Naval Infantry Brigades, it would certainly not end there, seizing the position is one thing, consolidating it in the face of the inevitable NATO response, which would be a build up of forces in Poland and the Baltic Approaches, would be quite another story..

The current Russian operational game, is a shell game, they have to rob from Peter to pay Paul, moving forces around to concentrate on one area at a time, if they incited NATO to mobilize by attacking Article V, the Russians would quickly find themselves in over their heads, without sufficient forces to cover all their bases, and they well know it, the Russians being in a position to go to war with NATO, symmetrical, assymetrical, or otherwise, is some ways off yet, in terms of the Russians ongoing project of rebuilding their conventional military capacity.

Bear in mind, the reason why NATO has not as of yet put significant combat forces into the Baltics, is that there is a treaty which binds us not to, the CFE treaty precludes a large force deployment on the Russian border, but if the Russians launched into a subversion campaign, that would simply give NATO a pretext to forgoe the treaty and reinforce, at which point, the Russians would be blocked from taking it, because even one NATO division backed by airpower, would be sufficient to block the Russians from getting in there.

Conversely, if the Russians took it in a surprise attack fait accompli, they would quickly find six NATO Corps facing them across the trace in Poland, which would require half the Russian Army to hold at bay, which would make the Russians vulnerable everywhere else, where NATO would also be reinforcing, so again, if you're the Russians, you don't go into the Baltic's, unless you are prepared to go all the way, and they are simply not in any position to go there right now, nor for quite some time yet, assuming their conventional force build up is on a one way trajectory to mass mobilization, which, considering the resources they have available, it certainly ain't right now.

The Russians right now, are actually want to modernize their forces, actually for sub-NATO threats in their near abroad rather than NATO itself, they have absolutely no interest in getting into a head to head with NATO at this juncture, that would simply derail everything the Russians are trying to achieve, forcing them to spend on the obselete military of today, when they really want to spend their money of the military of tommorow, which is twenty years in the future at the current rate of rebuild, if anything, what the Russians want and need right now, is time and space to continue their rebuild, not a pointless confrontation on the NATO Northern Flank which they could not win.

In the final analysis, the Russians simply do not have the resources, to get into a confrontation with NATO over the Article V line, the Russians will be very had pressed to even hold on to what they have now, never mind escalate into NATO territory, the only way they would ever do that, is if they were absolute backs against the wall, in a desperate gambit to try to force NATO to the bargaining table, before NATO ran them into the ground without breaking a sweat.

For the Russians, crossing the Article V line is simply not worth the trouble, they have other fish to fry in their own near abroad, so unless there is a clear and present threat against Kaliningrad, or the regime in Belarus, or if NATO advances into the Ukraine itself, the Russians have absolutely no good reason to start a campaign in the Baltic, they have more than enough problems as it is, in the Black Sea and Transcaucasia.

At the end of the day, the Russians have no actual interest in taking Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania back, because they would be deadweight, the Russians don't have any interest in destabilizing them neither, because that would simply draw NATO closer to the Russian border, the only thing of strategic importance to the Russians in the Baltic States, is Kaliningrad, Kaliningrad; is the Crimea of the Baltic, the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet, the only ice free port the Russians have in the Baltic Sea, and the Yantar Shipyard, which is their second most important naval production facility after SevMash in Severodvinsk.

The only thing the Russians would ever go to war over in the Baltic, is Kaliningrad, and an assymetric subversion campaign against Latvia, not only couldn't defend Kaliningrad, that would actually place Kaliningrad in greater peril by drawing exponentially more NATO forces into the Baltic States between Kaliningrad and Russia while giving NATO a pretext to retaliate with a blockade.

To defend Kaliningrad against a NATO blockade, they'd have to go big, right to the brink of World War Three, but first; NATO would have to actually threaten Kaliningrad, but since NATO knows that it would be inciting the brink of World War Three in doing so, NATO is effectively deterred from doing so, Russia defends Kaliningrad, with hydrogen bombs, so the Russians don't ever have to send tanks to do it, NATO defends Latvia, with hydrogen bombs, so NATO never has to send tanks to do it, this is how the Balance of Terror has worked for 70 years, and nothing has actually changed therein.

Thus, ultimately, both Latvia and Kaliningrad, are in fact protected by nuclear deterrence, as any war over Latvia and Kaliningrad, is the on the brink of a nuclear exchange, staring into an abyss which makes the very one sided Cuban Missile Crisis look relatively tame in comparison, so NATO is not going to attack Kaliningrad, and therefore; Russia is not going to attack Latvia, because if either were to do so, that would be go time with the hydrogen bombs right at the brink.

Both Latvia and Kaliningrad, are like West Berlin, easy to take by conventional force, there's no strategic depth there, so either could be taken by tanks in an afternoon, but like West Berlin, the strategic depth is provided by the hydrogen bomb, because if either side were to seize the other sides Baltic West Berlin, that would incite World War Three, so, ironically, Latvia and Kaliningrad; are actually two of the safest places on earth.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a full scale confrontation over the Baltic's, I'd love to see NATO get incited, I'd love to see the Russians catch the bus they were chasing and then not know what to do with it when they did, and I would absolutely love to see that jibjabbering assclown Curonian get overrun by the Spetsnaz GRU, I would chortle with glee, but, alas, reality check; nothing like that is imminent at this juncture, not even close.

[ssu]

How nice!

Even if I'm been away in Lappland for some days, you guys are talking about Russia and the Baltics, even without me, the Putin-alarmist.

Have to backtrack and read the discussion...

(The coldest ride for me there btw, driving a snowmobile in -36 Celsius. Calculated that with the rather slow speed that I was going the it was as like -54 Celsius with the wind. Now that was pretty cold, but layered clothing works.)

[Kazmyr]

That was awesome, Smitty. Thanks for that.