The Mess

[SuburbanFarmer]

Our friend Curonian seems quite convinced of the new Red Menace. Have a listen to The Eastern Border - e31. "All in".

He's received a very ominous death threat, implying that Latvia goes back to Russia by May.

The Russians won't attack absent some sort of major provocation; an attempt to blockade Kaliningrad, a NATO incursion into Ukraine, a Colour Revolution in Belarus, and/or an attempt to destabilize the Kremlin itself.

They won't attack out of the blue for no reason, their position vis a vis the Baltic States is "hold at risk", a soft target trump card that they keep in their back pockets, but only to be played in extremis.

Well they did attack and take a large portion of Ukraine recently...

[Okeefenokee]

Those were separatists.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Those were separatists.

Yes... with locally sourced uniforms, rocket launchers, and tanks no doubt.

They really, REALLY wanted to rejoin Russia.

[Smitty-48]

Our friend Curonian seems quite convinced of the new Red Menace. Have a listen to The Eastern Border - e31. "All in".

He's received a very ominous death threat, implying that Latvia goes back to Russia by May.

The Russians won't attack absent some sort of major provocation; an attempt to blockade Kaliningrad, a NATO incursion into Ukraine, a Colour Revolution in Belarus, and/or an attempt to destabilize the Kremlin itself.

They won't attack out of the blue for no reason, their position vis a vis the Baltic States is "hold at risk", a soft target trump card that they keep in their back pockets, but only to be played in extremis.

Well they did attack and take a large portion of Ukraine recently...

Ukraine is not NATO, an attack on NATO would be an escalation on an exponentially greater scale to say the least, the Baltic is not proxy for the Donbas, an attack against the Baltic is the brink of World War Three, the Russians would only go there in extremis, again; land/sea blockade of Kaliningrad, major NATO deployment into Ukraine, attempt to overthrow the regime in Belarus, threat to destabilize the Kremlin itself.

[Okeefenokee]

Those were separatists.

Yes... with locally sourced uniforms, rocket launchers, and tanks no doubt.

They really, REALLY wanted to rejoin Russia.

The audacity of those Ruskies!

[SuburbanFarmer]

The Russians won't attack absent some sort of major provocation; an attempt to blockade Kaliningrad, a NATO incursion into Ukraine, a Colour Revolution in Belarus, and/or an attempt to destabilize the Kremlin itself.

They won't attack out of the blue for no reason, their position vis a vis the Baltic States is "hold at risk", a soft target trump card that they keep in their back pockets, but only to be played in extremis.

Well they did attack and take a large portion of Ukraine recently...

Ukraine is not NATO, an attack on NATO would be an escalation on an exponentially greater scale to say the least, the Baltic is not proxy for the Donbas, an attack against the Baltic is the brink of World War Three, the Russians would only go there in extremis, again; land/sea blockade of Kaliningrad, major NATO deployment into Ukraine, attempt to overthrow the regime in Belarus, threat to destabilize the Kremlin itself.

I don't think anyone in the world would expect us to go WW3 over Latvia. Especially not Latvians.

His main thesis, since you won't listen to the podcast, is that Putin is not a rational actor. He has no exit strategy for leaving power, because he's dead or ruined the moment he does. The only way he can keep control is to be the strongman that he promotes himself as. It doesn't have to make sense - he'll just do it anyway.

[Smitty-48]

Curonian is a bad judge of the situation, his portrayal of the Russian threat is cartoonish, a Russian attack on the Baltic's, out of the blue without any prior escalation against Russia, is nonsensical balderdash, and any such operation, would obviously incite a massive NATO response across the board, which would bring us to the brink of World War Three by default, as the Russian's only deterrent against a NATO counteroffensive would be a nuclear stand off.

Again, the Russians are not going to launch an attack on the Baltic, in anything other than extremis, as an attack on NATO would be in extremis by default, and anybody who claims otherwise, is an hysterical nonsense peddler, which describes Curonian to a tee.

As I said, an attempt to destabilize the Kremlin would be extremis, but luckily for Curonian and Co, the Kremlin's grip on power at the moment is not under any significant threat, Putin is more popular than ever, and before an attack on the Baltic's would occur, you would have to see the Kremlin brought under extreme pressure, which they're simply not at this juncture, and so a pronouncement of an imminent Russian attack on the Baltic's, due to Putin, and more accurately the Siloviki writ large, being under extreme pressure in the face of a clear and present threat to their authority, simply does not reflect the current situation, and is therefore bad analysis, or rather a total lack of analysis, in favour of hysteria.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Curonian is a bad judge of the situation, his portrayal of the Russian threat is cartoonish, a Russian attack on the Baltic's, out of the blue without any prior escalation against Russia, is nonsensical balderdash, and any such operation, would obviously incite a massive NATO response across the board, which would bring us to the brink of World War Three by default, as the Russian's only deterrent against a NATO counteroffensive would be a nuclear stand off.

Again, the Russians are not going to launch an attack on the Baltic, in anything other than extremis, as an attack on NATO would be in extremis by default, and anybody who claims otherwise, is an hysterical nonsense peddler, which describes Curonian to a tee.

As I said, an attempt to destabilize the Kremlin would be extremis, but luckily for Curonian and Co, the Kremlin's grip on power at the moment is not under any significant threat, Putin is more popular than ever, and before an attack on the Baltic's would occur, you would have to see the Kremlin brought under extreme pressure, which they're simply not at this juncture, and so a pronouncement of an imminent Russian attack on the Baltic's, due to Putin, and more specifically the Siloviki writ large, being under extreme pressure in the face of an clear and present threat to their authority, simply does not reflect the current situation, and is therefore bad analysis, or rather a total lack of analysis, in favour of hysteria.

Again, you're arguing against a source that you refuse to listen to.

He's not envisioning some random military invasion - more like American-style destabalization, societal unrest, and provoking internal revolution. Same as we've done in South America for 50 years.

[Smitty-48]

The Russians aren't going to do that neither, again, short of extremis, and moreover, any such operation would simply incite NATO to reinforce, which would prevent the Russians from ever being able to excute a military take over, so, in extremis, if they were going to execute a takeover of the Baltics, they wouldn't bother with any of that, they would simply launch the 2nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 76th Guards Airborne/Air Assault Division from just over the border in Pskov.

It's either/or, either they conduct a limited unconventional operation, which would give NATO a chance to respond and block any major incursion, or they launch a major incursion, the former does not support the latter, so in the end, in terms of an invasion of the Baltic's, it's suprise attack or nothing, they can't take it by subversion, and so an attempt at subversion, would simply be a glaring indicator that they do not intend to take it all.

[SuburbanFarmer]

The Russians aren't going to do that neither, again, short of extremis, and moreover, any such operation would simply incite NATO to reinforce, which would prevent the Russians from ever being able to excute a military take over, so, in extremis, if they were going to execute a takeover of the Baltics, they wouldn't bother with any of that, they would simply launch the 2nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and 76th Guards Airborne/Air Assault Division from just over the border in Pskov.

It's either/or, either they conduct a limited unconventional operation, which would give NATO a chance to respond and block any major incursion, or they launch a major incursion, the former does not support the latter, so in the end, in terms of an invasion of the Baltic's, it's suprise attack or nothing, they can't take it by subversion, and so an attempt at subversion would be a sign that they do not intend to take it all.

NATO can't block a propaganda coup. That's not what NATO does, unless we want to build our very own Iron Curtain.

Apparently, much of Latvia's media has been bought up by Russian oligarchs, and is pumping out massive amounts of fake news - just like ours.