I think I know a little about Oil. AMA, yes high oil prices only hurt small business

[TheReal_ND]

Shoot. I'm here all day.

[pineapplemike]

Whats your forecast for the price of oil over the next several years

[Speaker to Animals]

Whats your forecast for the price of oil over the next several years

Before or after N-Day?

[TheReal_ND]

I think it will trend back towards normalcy around $80 a barrel which is currently profitable (as of a few years ago,) for Russian drilling to come back on line and nearly profitable for state side fracking to come back online. I think this will happen in a few years as this oil glut we have had should start to correct itself. I've never been exactly clear on why Saudi went into overdrive but I've had suspicions. I know they can't and probably don't think it should go on indefinitely. For now, all I know is the market is a bit broken which isn't actually that unusual. The gluts tend to go in about four year cycles and we have already had about two in the glut.

[SuburbanFarmer]

$80 is normal? We were in “crisis” when it hit $100.

Of course, it’s funny how the gasoline price never went back to “normal”, now that we’re around $50.

[Hastur]

What are your thought on this new theory about Peak Oil Demand? To me it just sounds uninformed. What's the difference? Demand depends on price and supply. Peak supply would cause higher price and less demand. Duh. What's new?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready- ... 1495419061

[TheReal_ND]

$80 is normal? We were in “crisis” when it hit $100.

Of course, it’s funny how the gasoline price never went back to “normal”, now that we’re around $50.

$80-$90 is about the sweet spot for drilling and refining domestically. High gas prices aren't a crises for large companies only small ones.

What are your thought on this new theory about Peak Oil Demand? To me it just sounds uninformed. What's the difference? Demand depends on price and supply. Peak supply would cause higher price and less demand. Duh. What's new?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready- ... 1495419061

Peak demand? New to me. Demand is expected to only increase as Africa becomes industrialized by china. Supposedly this will lead to more Africans having the ability to consume oil and oil products. We are nowhere near peak demand. The thing about supply and demand with oil is that having too high an inventory will actually cause a loss of investment. The market for demand is enough to forecast but when new oil plays come on line it causes the price do go down. Raw oil can only be stored for about a year before it starts to gel up. I think it can still be refined after that but it's too expensive. So ideally you want the oil in the ground or in a refinery and you don't want to be caught holding it.

[Speaker to Animals]

The idea of peak demand amuses me. Especially since the recent glut constitutes at least one data point indicating that peak supply is right around the corner.

It reads more like wishful thinking.

Oil companies need to diversify and become energy companies.

[TheReal_ND]

The idea of peak demand amuses me. Especially since the recent glut constitutes at least one data point indicating that peak supply is right around the corner.

It reads more like wishful thinking.

Oil companies need to diversify and become energy companies.

I don't think we are anywhere near peak supply either but we are at peak supply via price point. Oil is not unlimited. Standard Oil sucked all the light sweet crude out of North America for the most part already. As the price goes up, fracking and off shore deep drills will come back in play and eventually, the Arctic Circle. Supposedly in the future maybe there is a wealth under Antarctica but first we have to kick the Nazis out of their New Swabian UFO base to get to it.