Poking the Bear Again

[Xenophon]

With tensions between D.C. and Moscow escalating again, I thought it prudent that the proxy battles between the US and Russian Federation be discussed here, for the sake of focus.

We've established that the Ukrainian government, a current ally of the West, has begun pushing back against the Russian backed militias operating in Eastern Ukraine. This is significant because it shows a direct continuation of Obama era policies.

There have been casualties in the renewed fighting.

A military serviceman with the Joint Forces was killed in an enemy attack in the Donbas warzone on March 18.

That's according to the Pivnich (North) Operational Tactical Group.

The invaders violated the ceasefire and targeted JFO defense positions with artillery and automatic fire near the village of Pivdenne.

"As a result of the enemy attack, a soldier with the Joint Forces sustained a gunshot wound. The serviceman was promptly provided first aid, but unfortunately his life couldn't be saved. The Command expresses sincere condolences to the family and friends of the fallen defender," the statement says.

Ukrainian military returned fire to the said attack.

"The actions of Russia's armed formations were reported to the OSCE representatives through the Ukrainian side to the Joint Center for Ceasefire Control and Coordination and Stabilization of the Contact Line," says the statement.



Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/war/donbas-ukrai ... 57608.html

Relatively low activity at the moment, but I don't think either power wants this to escalate beyond the current status quo.

[Smitty-48]

the problem for the Russians is that they didn't take my advice

Putin didn't go big an seize of all east Ukraine to the Dnepr back in 14' when he had the chance

so now the Ukrainians have had 7 years to build up their forces

the Russians don't have a conventional option anymore

if they have to escalate beyond this now, they will have to brandish their tactical nuclear weapons

they will only do that if they are backs against a wall

in the meantime they are simply building up their tactical nuclear forces in theater in preparation for war

[Smitty-48]

this is not to say the Russians would use no conventional forces at all

they have been demonstrating that they can rapidly shift forces from east to west, 100,000 troops at once

so they would reinforce in Western District

6th Combined Arms Army at Petrograd

1st Guards Tank Army at Odintsovo

and right across the border from Ukraine, 20th Guards Motor Rifle Army at Voronezh

but they don't have the forces to hold what they could take,

they could beat the Ukrainians, but how to hold the ground after is the problem

the solution is to brandish tactical nuclear weapons to shield the conventional forces

the Russian doctrine of Nuclear Deescalation

[Smitty-48]

the key thing to understand however, is that this is a maritime theater

the confrontation is not over Ukraine writ large, that's just Russia guarding the northern flank

the confrontation is over control of the Black Sea

the place Russia is defending is their ice free southern port at Sevastopol Crimea

the threat is directly across the water at Develesu Romania

this is Russia's "Gulf of Mexico"

Obama put missiles in "Russian Cuba"

it's not a land war, it's a sea war

[Smitty-48]

the second thing to understand is that this is Cold War

New Cold War, Cold War Two, what have you

that is really just an euphemism for "Arms Race"

it's not about anything more than the types of weapons being brought to bear

technological dislocation inciting destabilization

the escalations don't happen at the tactical level, Ukraine & the Donbass Peoples Republic are simply proxies

escalations at the theater level are operational not tactical

so for example, the Trump Administration deploying W76-2 tactical warheads on Trident SSBN's

those warheads are not targeted at Moscow

those warheads would be launched from somewhere off the coast of Spain

flying on a depressed trajectory, they would strike five minutes later in the Black Sea against theater targets

a massive escalation, when you consider that just one SSBN loaded with that, can strike 288 targets at once

[Smitty-48]

America always had a work around baked into the INF treaty

it only prohibited land based INF's, which were the Soviet ones

it allowed for sea based INF's, which were the American ones

America got rid of Pershing 2 and land based Nuclear Tomahawk

to compensate, America shifted her INF's to sea based, Tactical Trident & Nuclear Tomahawk from submarines

when Cold War One ended, that paused

now that Cold War Two has been incited, it's back, new & improved, much more accurate than before

[Smitty-48]

in addition to Reductive Escalation from Strategic down into Theater level

there is a simultaneous Lateral Escalation in play

which is Hypersonics

in a theater thermonuclear counterforce option, time is of the essence

you are striking the other sides tactical nuclear weapons with your own tactical nuclear weapons

to wit, preemption

so you gotta be fast

thus in addition to being pin point accurate, the new generation of INF's fly at hypersonic speeds, Mach 5+

that is both destabilizing and escalatory therein,

because there is so little time to decide what is going on and how to respond in a crisis

where you used to have up to even hours to decide, with slow cruise missiles coming at you

now you will be down to five minutes or less before your weapons are taken out

this incites the "Use Them or Lose Them" paradigm, in Cold War parlance

[doc_loliday]

Biden agreed that Putin is a "killer" and Putin challenged Biden to a live debate.

It's never gonna happen but that would be fun to watch.

[Smitty-48]

Biden agreed that Putin is a "killer" and Putin challenged Biden to a live debate.

It's never gonna happen but that would be fun to watch.

classical Neoconservatism, otherwise known as the "Reagan Democrats"

they are fighting the Evil Empire by way of the Domino Theory rebranded, same as it ever was

[Smitty-48]

the fault line here is the Russian Near Abroad

the Non NATO Military Allies (NNMA) in the no man's land between NATO & Russia

from Belarus in the Baltic

through Ukraine

then splits into the Balkans at Moldova

and over to Armenia in the South Caucasus

NATO in the form of Turkey having just fought a proxy war with Russia

in Nagorno-Karaback by way of Azerbaijan

it's all the same theater