Norway says no to NATO missile shield

[Otern]

https://www.thelocal.no/20191008/norway ... nce-system

I'm honestly surprised, considering our government has previously been in favor, and are pretty much doing anything the US ask. Even among the opposition, only the far left has been hardcore opponents, while the largest opposition party has been turned pro missile shield after their leader became general secretary of NATO. We bought 5 AEGIS "frigates", and are currently upgrading to the Globus III radar in Vardø, all of which could be interpreted as aligning with the missile shield. So this came as a total surprise. It was the correct decision, but it's surprising to see my government do something right for once.

But I also wonder how the fuck so many other NATO members just blindly went along with it and joined. For example Denmark. They have absolutely nothing to gain from joining, apart from being on the good side of the US, which they already should be, considering their proportionally huge contributions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

[StCapps]

Why do you think it's the correct decision?

[Smitty-48]

Fuck Norway.

[Otern]

Why do you think it's the correct decision?

Two reasons, one technical, and one political:
1: It physically can't protect Norway anyway.
2: Norway joining the NATO missile shield would further destabilize the situation with Russia by threatening their strategic deterrence, forcing them to react.


Why wouldn't it work here? Basically, we're too close to the launch sites. And this is why NATO so desperately wants us in, as we could provide targeting data with radars based in Norway for interceptor missiles based in Alaska or Canada. But there are no other places between Norway and Russia, where radars could be placed, so interceptor missiles have no chance in hell taking out missiles bound for Norway from Russia.
And even if this somehow was solved, which it can't be, it wouldn't matter, as Russia wouldn't waste expensive ICBMs on Norway, when the entirety of our area is withing range of their much cheaper cruise missiles anyway. Ballistic missile defense is useless against cruise missiles, so we would need to add way more conventional air defense systems, in addition to the at least to Norway, useless ballistic missile defense, to deal with increased cruise missile threat.

The only effect coming from Norway joining, would be increased sensor coverage for the ballistic missile defense of the US. (Which is a whole other story, but at least it's theoretically possible to shoot down a missile bound for the US). Russia would need to take out the radars and sensors placed in Norway, in any nuclear escalation scenario, which increases the chances of deescalition strikes and limited nuclear strikes hitting Norway. By joining the NATO missile defense, we go from not being a nuclear target, to being one, and at the same time having no way to actually intercept those strikes.

Basically, the choice Norway has is either;
Not being able to protect ourselves against missiles from Russia. And also not being a target worthy of wasting precious nukes. The US gets a bit mad, as now they(or one of their allies) have to put AEGIS destroyers close to the North pole, which are a bit more expensive to operate and maintain than land based sensors.
or:
Not being able to protect ourselves against missiles from Russia. But being a very worthy target for nuclear weapons from Russia. The US saves some buckaroonies, as the sensors would be land based in Norway.
That's why I think it's retarded for Norwegians to want to join the missile defense, but it's not as retarded for the Americans to want us to join. Joining would simply work against Norwegian interests.

[Smitty-48]

Die in a fire, Norway.

[Speaker to Animals]

Norway is currently not really a target. Why would they want to become one?

Canada is fucked because they are in between America and Russia, and America built most of our missile fields fairly close to the Canadian border. There are lots of good reasons for them to want missile defense systems installed.

I don't see why Scandinavia should give a shit unless Russia plans to capture Scandinavia, which seems implausible with Russia's currently imploding demographics.

Best strategy now is just to let Russia run its course. In fifty years, they won't have the human capital to keep up with us anyway.

There's no point in expansion if you can't get your fucking demographics out of the red.

[Smitty-48]

Canada is willing to join the American BMD program

The Tories are all for it, but even the Liberals have been mulling it over.

It's an easy way for Canada to contribute, doesn't require any boots on the ground overseas.

Canadians are not that concerned about it, it's not controversial outside of the hardcore peaceniks

It's something America is going to do anyways, might as well get on board.

Any sort of Continental Defense NORAD type stuff is a pretty easy sell in Canada, that's not a Canadian bogey.

Canadians would much rather do BMD than have to contribute ground troops.

The new Destroyers Canada is buying from Lockheed Martin are actually BMD ready out of the box;

AN/SPY-6 Air and Missile Defense Radar and RIM-161 SM III ready.

Even if DND doesn't buy RIM-161, the AMDR on the ship is integrated with Aegis BMD automatically.

So even if Canadians don't realize it, buying these Type 26 CSC's is buying into BMD inclusively.

[Speaker to Animals]

I would rather move to mobile and space-based missile defense systems. BMD on ships is not going to help you against an ICBM in most cases, but a constellation of bright pebbles could do that if coupled with an accurate early warning system. Putting systems on the ground that could somehow destroy warheads coming in from suborbit would be amazing, especially if you could make them mobile.

[Ph64]

I would rather move to mobile and space-based missile defense systems. BMD on ships is not going to help you against an ICBM in most cases, but a constellation of bright pebbles could do that if coupled with an accurate early warning system. Putting systems on the ground that could somehow destroy warheads coming in from suborbit would be amazing, especially if you could make them mobile.

"Brilliant pebbles" damnit, not bright pebbles.
Company I worked for in the late 80s/90s was doing IR sensor work for that.
(Also on BSTS, which became "brilliant eyes" later).

[Speaker to Animals]

My bad. Brilliant Pebbles.