Demographic Winter

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Speaker to Animals
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Demographic Winter

Post by Speaker to Animals » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:31 am

You know the story. Despite technologies, regulations, and policies to make humanity less of a strain on the earth, people just won’t stop reproducing. By 2050 there will be 9 billion carbon-burning, plastic-polluting, calorie-consuming people on the planet. By 2100, that number will balloon to 11 billion, pushing society into a Soylent Green scenario. Such dire population predictions aren’t the stuff of sci-fi; those numbers come from one of the most trusted world authorities, the United Nations.

But what if they’re wrong? Not like, off by a rounding error, but like totally, completely goofed?

That’s the conclusion Canadian journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrell Bricker come to in their newest book, Empty Planet, due out February 5th. After painstakingly breaking down the numbers for themselves, the pair arrived at a drastically different prediction for the future of the human species. “In roughly three decades, the global population will begin to decline,” they write. “Once that decline begins, it will never end.”

But Empty Planet is not a book about statistics so much as it is about what’s driving the choices people are making during the fastest period of change in human history. Ibbitson and Bricker take their readers inside the Indian slums of Delhi and the operating rooms of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to eavesdrop on the conversations young professionals have at dinner parties in Brussels and over drinks at a young professionals’ club in Nairobi. The end result is a compelling challenge to long-entrenched demography dogma, Trojan Horse-d inside an accessible, vivid portrait of modern families from every walk of life. The authors sat for an interview about how they arrived at a radical new outlook on the human race and its implications for future societies.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-world-m ... of-people/

My suggestion: STOP ALL IMMIGRATION and set to work at automation. STAT

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by Speaker to Animals » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:52 am

This part in particular:
WIRED: OK, but so what though? Why does it matter who’s right or wrong?

DB: A lot of people who are thinking about the future of the world, the future economy, the future of city planning, they’re basing their projections on that future size of the human population. And people are actually making decisions based on this. If you dig in and see that there isn’t going to be a lot of growth of young people coming into the population, a lot of growth is actually going to come from older people hanging around longer because we’re getting better every day at keeping them alive. How does that affect transit decisions in New York City? Or how governments support rural communities that are collapsing at an enormous rate right now. All those decisions are based on having a correct understanding of what our societies will look like in the future.
With respect to how governments and individuals need to plan for the future, my advice is to avoid planning that is predicated upon population growth. Investments in residential property that you plan to hold longer than twenty years or so (I would argue about two decades from now it begins in earnest since most of the boomer generation will have died) does not seem wise to me. In the short-term, maybe.

But for your individual life? My guess is that most shit will be automated. A lot of unhealthy older folks will live in cities where they can be supported by the government in the cheapest way possible. Most workers will be upstream from robotics and AI software that does a lot of the work humans do today. So huge amounts of growth I think will be possible in fields like systems engineering.

Agriculture will be the pickle. I do think there is going to be lots of room for small farmers to compete against the Big Agra. Big Agra's entire business model is designed around a huge, growing global population. That's going to be fucking gone. Also people already are turning to local food sources. They don't trust globalist food any longer. The only thing really keeping it going is economic stagnation that makes healthier food unaffordable for so many. But the more people get into local production the easier that will be to switch back to healthy, local food.

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by Speaker to Animals » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:59 am

For instance.. a young person who wants to get into farming might avoid buying a large farm with a house on it. Instead, get a condo or a small house in town that he can pay off in ten years (or better yet just rent). Buy undeveloped land somewhere and develop it into his farm. There are added costs of having to commute to the farm to work, but you can easily move your residence around as needed. Eventually, when you are old, you can consider building something on the property when you have the money set aside.

Otherwise, you are looking at a 30 year mortgage with huge monthly bills that cut into your revenue. Meanwhile, by the time your 30 years are up, the property is worth a fraction of what it cost you when you were young.

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by C-Mag » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:33 am

Academics and Central Planners are notoriously bad at predicting the future, the world was supposed to be starving with this many people, and the earth was supposed to be unliveable.
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brewster
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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by brewster » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:54 am

C-Mag wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:33 am
Academics and Central Planners are notoriously bad at predicting the future, the world was supposed to be starving with this many people, and the earth was supposed to be unliveable.
Just about everyone is notoriously bad at predicting the future. Equilibrium points are very hard to predict, as is new technology adoption rates. Plus StA's belief in the boomer demographic dominance is misplaced. It's funny how some people are willing to believe in one apocalypse with very scant information, yet disbelieve in another that virtually all scientists support with vast data backing it. The way glaciers and icecaps are melting worldwide, my property will be underwater long before there's no one to rent it.

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We are only accustomed to dealing with like twenty online personas at a time so when we only have about ten people some people have to be strawmanned in order to advance our same relative go nowhere nonsense positions. -TheReal_ND

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by C-Mag » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:03 am

brewster wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:54 am

Just about everyone is notoriously bad at predicting the future.
Yes, but the egg heads are constantly getting policy changed based on their 'Expert' predictions. They should just stop predicting shit and learn how to code.
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Zlaxer
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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by Zlaxer » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:17 am

This is exactly what that (now deceased) Eurorweenie (I still like him though) professor said in that Ted talk I posted (as well as one of the Euroweenies on here (sorry forgot who))....Terd worlders will stop having kids once they realize that all 10 are likely to survive nowadays...and that they will have to pay for all 10. The acceleration in these countries is slowing (thank God) and will reverse in next 20 years....

Don't think we'll ever go extinct though - Government will offer incentives to have kids if it gets to that point...

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by Speaker to Animals » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:22 am

The reality, though, os that the people with maladapted genetics have replacement rates well below even 0.5. Conse4vative and traditional Americans, for example, still have a reproduction rate at around replacement (2.1). Liberals are somewhere around 0.2. But when you look at the two groups together it paints a shitty picture.

I think liberals are just going extinct, personally.

It is not bad. We have automation. They are solving all the environmental problems they constantly cry about. Fuck em. Bye.

Just do not plan beyond twenty years around anything that depends upon population growth.

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by brewster » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:36 am

C-Mag wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:03 am
Yes, but the egg heads are constantly getting policy changed based on their 'Expert' predictions. They should just stop predicting shit and learn how to code.
I don't think that's the answer, then you can never get ahead of problems, and are only reacting after it's too late. We shouldn't be waiting for a disaster like the Challenger explosion before we take action. Eggheads said it was risky and were overruled by the image groomers. The answer is to let the data drive, not ideology or corporate interests.
We are only accustomed to dealing with like twenty online personas at a time so when we only have about ten people some people have to be strawmanned in order to advance our same relative go nowhere nonsense positions. -TheReal_ND

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Re: Demographic Winter

Post by brewster » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:37 am

Speaker to Animals wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:22 am
The reality, though, os that the people with maladapted genetics have replacement rates well below even 0.5. Conse4vative and traditional Americans, for example, still have a reproduction rate at around replacement (2.1). Liberals are somewhere around 0.2. But when you look at the two groups together it paints a shitty picture.
Idiocracy, here we come...
We are only accustomed to dealing with like twenty online personas at a time so when we only have about ten people some people have to be strawmanned in order to advance our same relative go nowhere nonsense positions. -TheReal_ND