Cut the Bull Shit. What would war with North Korea look like?

[skankhunt42]

World War 3. Is that what it becomes? Will nuclear weapons be a foregone conclusion? It just seems like with Bannon as an advisor in conjunction with how bat shit crazy the North Koreans are that we are here. That this is going to happen sooner than later. So...How does this end?

[Hastur]

1. Something triggers war.
2. Seoul is reduced to rubble by North Korean artillery.
3. The US and South Korea counters with massive cruise missile and air assault taking out all NK C2 and Air Defence.
4. NK army falls apart like a rotten shed
5. China says STOP
6. The end.

[Alexander PhiAlipson]

I think that's about right.
in the first twenty-four hours NK's conventional artillery alone could kill millions in Seoul, but within another couple of days, North Korea would turn into a smoking moonscape; talks would begin as the viable targets disappeared and soon some one-armed colonel would be signing whatever the US and China put in front of him.
It wouldn't be pretty, but I'm fairly certain it would be quick.

[ssu]

The more credible scenarios are that North Korea could inflict up to 1 million casualties on South Korea and possibly land a few missiles into Japan if the North Korea went into a inflict maximum damage mode. South Korea and the USA would be able to beat down and contain North Korea. The situation would then transition into a prolonged Iraq-Afghanistan. North Korea also has thousands of tons of chemical weapons.

See here

The figure of 1 million, naturally a rough estimate and casualty figures include those who are wounded (and this figure includes civilians), has to my knowledge been said by US generals... those who's job is to plan for the war. Now it may be too pessimistic (just as US casualty estimates before Operation Desert Storm), yet the casualty figures would be damn high.

And furthermore, let's remember that two US presidents have gotten cold feet about striking North Korea. That tells that the casualties are of that size. Clinton truly thought of striking North Korean nuclear facilities. The estimate given about casualties was so high that Clinton ditched the plan. President Bush, who put North Korea into the "Axis-of-Evil", attacked as a candidate Clinton on his dovish stance against North Korea and promised to be tougher. As President Bush quickly followed the same route as Clinton when it came to North Korea. No bullying against them.

That above tells alot.

Anyway, the whole reason for the high casualty rates is the North Korean artillery. Because they are already at the border and ready to be used.



Yet one has to remember that the Korean conflict is very unlikely to escalate into an all-out war. The conflict has lingered on with the occasional clashes since the end of the war. Hence this isn't a powderkeg ready to explode at any time. Only if Trump has some stupid thoughts and somehow his generals don't refrain him.

[Speaker to Animals]

Or..

The PRC and the US both launch EMP attacks across North Korea combined with massive air strikes on their artillery. Then the ground war and occupation begins.

[clubgop]

Or..

The PRC and the US both launch EMP attacks across North Korea combined with massive air strikes on their artillery. Then the ground war and occupation begins.

No one worth anything wants this to happen. The US doesn't want the instability, S. Korea doesn't want the death and destruction, N. Korea doesn't want to end their regime, and China doesn't want the unified Korea that would inevitability result from such a conflict.

[Speaker to Animals]

Or..

The PRC and the US both launch EMP attacks across North Korea combined with massive air strikes on their artillery. Then the ground war and occupation begins.

No one worth anything wants this to happen. The US doesn't want the instability, S. Korea doesn't want the death and destruction, N. Korea doesn't want to end their regime, and China doesn't want the unified Korea that would inevitability result from such a conflict.

If North Korea really goes crazy with nuclear weapons, I am not sure we could find an alternative. China could somehow implement a coup and install a new dynasty or regime, I suppose.

I think what a lot of folks are missing here is that the situation in North Korea is becoming intolerable for pretty much everybody, including the PRC. I can see why they would want that buffer state there for as long as American troops are stationed in South Korea and Japan. But a buffer state that could predictably launch ballistic missiles, possibly with fission bombs, into neighboring nation states without a legitimate provocation is fucking nuts.

[tue4t]

I know bombardment of Seoul gets mentioned a lot, but would the north koreans actually do something like that? Maybe I'm wrong but my understanding was that both SK and NK view each other sort of as kin of the same country, and it always puzzled me why SK would build up a capital so close to the border if the risk was actually that high.

Maybe NK would level Seoul because they came to view it as a symbol of evil american imperialism and perversion etc. Doesn't seem that likely though, even to the south koreans.

[Ex-California]

Or..

The PRC and the US both launch EMP attacks across North Korea combined with massive air strikes on their artillery. Then the ground war and occupation begins.

No one worth anything wants this to happen. The US doesn't want the instability, S. Korea doesn't want the death and destruction, N. Korea doesn't want to end their regime, and China doesn't want the unified Korea that would inevitability result from such a conflict.

If North Korea really goes crazy with nuclear weapons, I am not sure we could find an alternative. China could somehow implement a coup and install a new dynasty or regime, I suppose.

I think what a lot of folks are missing here is that the situation in North Korea is becoming intolerable for pretty much everybody, including the PRC. I can see why they would want that buffer state there for as long as American troops are stationed in South Korea and Japan. But a buffer state that could predictably launch ballistic missiles, possibly with fission bombs, into neighboring nation states without a legitimate provocation is fucking nuts.

Yeah, at that point China will risk the refugee situation

[Mercury]

What is the "Bull Shit" that should be "cut" about war with North Korea?