The 4th Turning - our current events

[C-Mag]

I've slowly come to see a lot of accuracy in the Strauss and Howes Generational theories of history. Here they are in 1997 on C-Span discussing their findings and theory.


These guys pretty much nailed the start of the 4th Turning starting in between 2005-2008 a decade previous. An unravelling starting with an economic crisis.

The critical thing for us in there theory is that we are now almost half way through this crisis period. They point out this is likely to be a period of massive change on a global scale not unlike the 1860s or 1940s. If they are right, buckle up.

Issues they warn about
-Collapse of Social Welfare Programs
-Federal Debt
-Economic Class Warfare
-Seccessionist Movements

[ssu]

4th Turning is an interesting book and what Howe and Strauss argue is worth thinking about.

Unfortunately now it's the alt-right/Bannon thing, so any intelligent discourse won't happen. I don't think that Howe & Strauss agree with Bannon's idea. Just a quote to prove it how unfortunate turn the discourse has gotten:

Steve Bannon became obsessed with a dark theory of history predicting the rebirth of America's institutions every 80 years - and became convinced the US was on the brink of a bigger conflict than the Second World War, a report said Thursday. Donald Trump's chief strategist became fascinated in the early 2000s by The Fourth Turning, a 1997 book in which William Strauss and Neil Howe explain their theory of American history, Time wrote in a profile of Bannon.

So now it's itself part of the political discourse. Unfortunately.

Issues they warn about
-Collapse of Social Welfare Programs
-Federal Debt
-Economic Class Warfare
-Seccessionist Movements

Collapse of Social Welfare Programs and the Federal Debt wer quite obvious to forcast and seen By many, because it's simply math and the demographics is easy to forcast as children have children in 20-30 years when they have been born. After all, a social welfare program works if you have larger generations than earlier, on cause problems when fertility goes down.

[C-Mag]

Analogous Generations of the past to current generations

Baby Boomers = Missionary Generation - muckrakers, prohibitionism, workers' rights, trade unionism and women's suffrage
Gen X = Lost Generation - the pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, such as Eisenhower
Millenials = GI Generation - aka Greatest Generation, the Millenials will be on the ground for whatever type of global war we are aobut to fight
Homeland Gen = Silent Generation - grow up in a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E ... nal_theory

[C-Mag]

4th Turning is an interesting book and what Howe and Strauss argue is worth thinking about.

Unfortunately now it's the alt-right/Bannon thing, so any intelligent discourse won't happen. I don't think that Howe & Strauss agree with Bannon's idea. Just a quote to prove it how unfortunate turn the discourse has gotten:

Thanks for the comments, and I agree the financial failures of social entitlements is a softball.

Frankly, I'm not into the Alt-Right thing. I believe it's being used by the Left to smear non-Leftists the way Rush Limbaugh destroyed the word Liberal by tying it to crazies on the Left. Even if Bannon is nuts, he doesn't corrupt the usefulness of Strauss and Howes work.

According to their research between 2017 and 2027 we will see a major resetting war and a reset of social structure.
It could be a Civil War it could be a World War. To be honest we could already be in either one of those.

[SilverEagle]

4th Turning is an interesting book and what Howe and Strauss argue is worth thinking about.

Unfortunately now it's the alt-right/Bannon thing, so any intelligent discourse won't happen. I don't think that Howe & Strauss agree with Bannon's idea. Just a quote to prove it how unfortunate turn the discourse has gotten:

Thanks for the comments, and I agree the financial failures of social entitlements is a softball.

Frankly, I'm not into the Alt-Right thing. I believe it's being used by the Left to smear non-Leftists the way Rush Limbaugh destroyed the word Liberal by tying it to crazies on the Left. Even if Bannon is nuts, he doesn't corrupt the usefulness of Strauss and Howes work.

According to their research between 2017 and 2027 we will see a major resetting war and a reset of social structure.
It could be a Civil War it could be a World War. To be honest we could already be in either one of those.

Well I do see a real possibility of another World War and if it does happen it will be because of a trade war with China. So it's a good idea for Trump to be buddy buddy with Putin. Now if that war does happen I fear the death total will be more than the total dead of WWI and WWII combined. Now one thing that could prevent WWIII is a large pandemic outbreak that kills off 25% - 30% of the worlds population. Either way there is going to be a tremendous loss of life.

[SuburbanFarmer]

We tend to get pandemics along with major wars. You simply can't cluster and move that many humans around without it.

See: Yellow Fever, Spanish Flu, Influenza, etc

[C-Mag]

Well I do see a real possibility of another World War and if it does happen it will be because of a trade war with China. So it's a good idea for Trump to be buddy buddy with Putin. Now if that war does happen I fear the death total will be more than the total dead of WWI and WWII combined. Now one thing that could prevent WWIII is a large pandemic outbreak that kills off 25% - 30% of the worlds population. Either way there is going to be a tremendous loss of life.

The authors have stuck with their prediction that a huge war will happen, but they do say it could take a lot of different forms. I find it fascinating that they are saying we are essential in 1935 right now. And that we can expect the type of social upheaval and radical changes that we saw between 1935 and 45.

[C-Mag]

We tend to get pandemics along with major wars. You simply can't cluster and move that many humans around without it.

See: Yellow Fever, Spanish Flu, Influenza, etc

Yeah, we missed out on our WWII pandemic though.

[SuburbanFarmer]

We tend to get pandemics along with major wars. You simply can't cluster and move that many humans around without it.

See: Yellow Fever, Spanish Flu, Influenza, etc

Yeah, we missed out on our WWII pandemic though.

Only because of mass innoculation against Influenza - all those weird, round shoulder-scars on your parents are the result. There were still large outbreaks of disease in the war, but nothing like the 1918 pandemic.

That bill is coming due though, with MRSA and new bugs that we can't simply anti-biotic away, as we have for a short time.

[C-Mag]

We tend to get pandemics along with major wars. You simply can't cluster and move that many humans around without it.

See: Yellow Fever, Spanish Flu, Influenza, etc

Yeah, we missed out on our WWII pandemic though.

Only because of mass innoculation against Influenza - all those weird, round shoulder-scars on your parents are the result. There were still large outbreaks of disease in the war, but nothing like the 1918 pandemic.

That bill is coming due though, with MRSA and new bugs that we can't simply anti-biotic away, as we have for a short time.

I have those weird, round shoulder-scars. It's from Small Pox vaccine, not Influenza.

Let me clarify a little. When I think of the major historical crisis periods outlined by S&H I think of major wars, but in fact the crisis can be war, plague (or pandemic), famine, or economic depression, or more than one.