Developments in the area of USPACOM, Pacific Theatre

[ssu]

Put up a general thread about the developments in the Pacific and Far East, as the developments in Europe has already it's thread.

As this "theatre" has been seen as where the strategic focus is shifting towards, at least in US rhetoric, it might be good to review things and developments that aren't first page news (like the seizing of the Navy drone, which has it's own thread), but give an insight what just is happening there.

First, the Chinese aircraft carrier group is finally getting it's first experiences of blue water ops by sailing to the Western Pacific. Japan is nervous about the development. The Chinese stated that the aircraft carrier was combat ready in November 2016.

The (Japanese) Maritime Self-Defense Force on Sunday morning spotted China’s only aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, cruising into the Western Pacific Ocean for the first time via the waterway between Okinawa and Miyakojima Island, the Defense Ministry said. The Liaoning, accompanied by three guided missile destroyers and two frigates, was spotted about 110 km northeast of Miyakojima in Okinawa Prefecture heading southeast at around 10 a.m., the ministry said.

This is the first time the Liaoning has been confirmed as entering the Pacific Ocean, ministry officials said.

The Chinese military build up is slow but methodical. The Varyag, which was basically considered a total wreck when bought from the Ukrainians, is likely now in prime shape. Of course it's role is defensive, but it gives China some Limited Blue water capability.

Propaganda picture of the Liaoning (ex Varyag) and it's J-15 Flying Sharks (Chinese Navalized Flankers):



There was an incident were JASDF fighters intercepted Chinese bombers and fighters few weeks ago, which seem now to be quite ordinary in the area.

The Defense Ministry in Tokyo said the Air Self-Defense Force had scrambled fighter jets after six Chinese military aircraft flew through the strategically important Miyako Strait, bound for the Pacific, adding that there was no violation of Japanese airspace.

The ministry’s Joint Staff Office said that the six Chinese planes consisted of two Su-30 fighters, two H-6 bombers, one Tu-154 surveillance plane and one Y-8 surveillance plane. The Su-30 fighters crossed the strait and then made a U-turn to head toward the East China Sea while the surveillance planes and bombers headed toward the Bashi Channel, south of Taiwan.

China’s Defense Ministry slammed the scramble, saying that it had made “solemn representations” over the Japanese fighter jets, which it said harassed and shot decoy projectiles at Chinese air force planes, spokesman Yang Yujun said in a statement.

See Japanese, Chinese military aircraft engage in latest tit-for-tat moves in airspace above Western Pacific

What is interesting is that Japan's fighters are operating quite far from Mainland Japan, not just called up if someone is approaching the Japanese islands and Japanese airspace. Japan btw is getting it's first F-35 aircraft just now.



And for those who don't know where USPACOM starts and where it ends, here's a map of how the US has divided the World to different Commands. The newest of the commands is AFRICOM, which was earlier part of the CENTCOM. Notice that Egypt is in CENTCOM, yet other North African states in AFRICOM. This is understandable as Egypt plays a vital role in the Middle East region.

[de officiis]

So, how would describe the geopolitical goals/ambitions of China vs. Japan?

[TheReal_ND]

First for Duterte.

[Smitty-48]

^ Not an actual F-35, just a mock-up...

...first JASDF F-35A AX-1 is in Fort Worth, the first four JASDF F-35's are being assembled in Texas...



... the remaining 38 in the order are in production at the MHI plant in Nagoya.

Though I would expect the F-35 order to be extended beyond 42, plausibly with F-35B's as well, as MHI's X-2 is not really an alternative to F-35, and the only jet that will ever fly from JMSDF pocket carriers is F-35B.

X-2 is a vanity project which will program death spiral like the MHI F-2 before it, and like the Chinese J-31, it's not a real 5Gen, Japan will end up with at least 100 F-35's, the only question is whether they will weaponize their STOVL carriers with F-35B's, as without them, the Japanese carriers are basically pointless.

Conversely, if they add F-35B to their STOVL carriers, then Japan has the fourth most capable carrier force in the world after the US, UK, and France, more than a match for the PLAN's second rate Russian hand me down capability, including F-35's inherent capability to deliver the B61 tactical nuclear bomb if Japan ever decided to acquire a nuclear deterrent in the face of Chinese agression.

F-35A/B on land and sea, plus JMSDF Aegis DDG and AIP SSK's, is more than the Chinese can handle, add a nuclear deterent and the Chinese are essentially contained.

[ssu]

So, how would describe the geopolitical goals/ambitions of China vs. Japan?

Both countries are utterly dependent on the sealanes for their energy resources, natural resources and trade. The US and Russia which both have a lot of natural resources, hence they don't have similar problems as China and Japan. Both countries (Japan and China) have as their security objectives after defending their mainland to keep those vital sea lanes open.

This is China's problem. Basically it's routes to the open seas could be blocked by the US, for example if there's a bigger crisis in Taiwan than just a telephone call to Trump. Starting with Japan, Korea, Phillipines, Taiwan, there are the US allies in their way. This is their 1st line Island chain. China wants to dominate the South China Sea... hence the Chinese insistence on the Spratly Islands and other basically rocks that are now contested on the South China Sea. And as China cannot at (least now) directly compete with the lone Superpower and it's Navy, it has to look at other ways to tackle the problem. Hence "asymmetric warfare" is also implemented in Chinese doctrine as is anti-access area denial (not area superiority).


Basically these two island lines make the line of defence for China and the objectives where it wants to hopefully push out the US Navy from operating.

Now if the Chinese can gain their objectives, then it's a problem for Japan. Already China see's that it has historical claim to the Senkaku Islands (which are called Diaoyu Islands By the Chinese, which now are part of Japan. Hence all the aerial standoffs and sabre rattling between Japan and China. Japan is naturally quite nervous about the rising military power of China.

Map where the Islands are, below a Chinese protest of the Islands.



There's a good documentary series discussing China and the geopolitics and the military policy, which I put below links to. Although American and having an alarmist name "Will there be war with China", the documentary series is quite objective and discusses Chinese objectives and policies from many viewpoints (like starting from how understandable is it for China to seek a "Monroe Doctrine" for itself in the Far East). It has a good historical perspective to the situation. Yes, it's a long series, but it's worth wile seeing if one is interested in the situation in the region. I think it is a 5 episode series, but if you look at all of them, you have a pretty good idea of what it is all about in the Western Pacific. Episode 1 goes over the geopolitical realities.



Now about the confrontation between China and Japan, the same series continues about in Episode 5. (Others cover for example North Korea and Taiwan).

[Smitty-48]

Anything the Chinese put on these tiny islands is a sitting duck, fixed with no depth, concealment, nor mobility, F-35 gets to weapons release point totally undectected against it; boom and buh-bye.

[ssu]

Anything the Chinese put on these tiny islands is a sitting duck, fixed with no depth, concealment, nor mobility, F-35 gets to weapons release point totally undectected against it; boom and buh-bye.

Oh the Spratlys or the usually submerged rocks in the South China Sea aren't at all useful militarily and surely won't be used to that. It's the legal technicality that if those Islands (islets) are accepted to be part of Chinese territory, then there comes all the zones surrounding them. They are then Chinese Waters. And in Chinese Waters, it's against international law for the US Navy or other navies to sail.

That's the point.

[Smitty-48]

China does not submit to UNCLOS resolution enforcement and neither does the USA, moreover, UNCLOS does not supercede Fredoom of Navigation to 12 mile limit in any case, so International Law is not a real issue, China's assertion of the SCS/ECS as being Chinese internal waters will never be upheld by UNCLOS, doesn't meet the letter nor spirit of UNLCOS, it's an entirely specious and in fact spurrious claim by the Chinese, which is not actually backed up by anything, since the Chinese can't back it up without inciting a shooting war, which the Chinese would lose and lose badly.

China; Paper Tiger.

[Fife]

All this stuff is above my pay grade, but as long as Smits is good with "boom and buh-bye" I'm not too worried.

[kybkh]

Seems conflict with China is likely. If, we start to hurt their economy to strengthen our own the reaction from China is hard to predict.

With such a large proletariat, even a decrease in 5% unemployment puts a huge number of people on the streets.

Were China to face another Tiananmen Square would the government fold? Not likely. Could a massacre be carried out without widespread phone video evidence resulting in international sanctions?

China government would likely be forced to blame foreign agents and declare war.