ssu wrote:GrumpyCatFace wrote:
If it doesn't happen, then the market cycle has been completely broken, the Fed has assumed control over the global economy, and the stock market will rise to roughly infinity, as everyone realizes that it can never go down again. Perhaps Trump dreams up some magical means to tie the value of the dollar to helium, or the money printed just disappears into a deep, black hole forever.
You'll have some good laughs at my expense, and I'll have saved a lot of money on groceries. Win-win, I say.
EDIT: "Fidel Catstro" is goddamn funny.. There is no limit to what you guys dream up for the purpose of insult. One of the greatest things about this DCF/MHF thing.
Grumpy, in economics and economic discussions you have to make the important distinction between those that tell their story to the "chicken little & prepper" people, the permabears, and those that sometimes can be bearish, but also can be bullish when one needs to be bullish in the market.
Just remember that we did see the worst recession for ages not so long time ago, when the international monetary system was truly on the verge of collapse, but yet it wasn't a time for stored food and a shotgun to protect the food. And likely when the next crisis happens, this decade or the next, it's not going to be the end of the World. Just an embrace of suck, just like during the financial crisis.
The previous 'crash' was in 2000ish, as the dot-com bubble popped. In fact, you'll find a semi-regular pattern going all the way back to the beginning of the Fed in 1913 - around every 7-10 years, the market bubbles up and pops. Normal stuff, not the end of the world, and not concerning to me at all.
What's different this time, is that the
entire system was broken. Most people don't recognize it as anything special, because the fallout - while ugly - was not 'shotguns and canned food'. The only reason that it wasn't was the unbelievable actions of the government and Fed. They've printed trillions of new dollars over the past 8 years, via TARP, QE, and many other little 'side-programs'. Along with this, they've held the prime interest rate to zero (or close enough) for a ridiculous amount of time, with many of the other central banks going fully
negative for the first time in history. This means that it
actually costs money to lend money among the big banks.
This was all done in order to 'jump-start' the dead economy, and it has accomplished, at best, a middling survival of the norm, while all of those trillions have gone either into bank vaults, or the personal accounts of the insanely rich executives (criminals). Now, the Fed has finally had to begin ever-so-slowly raising the rate again, lest we realize how useless they really are, and nobody fucking knows
what happens when that reaches a tipping point. All of those trillions come flooding back into the economy, crashing the value of your dollar - the one in your pocket. Remember, there's no actual 'value' to a dollar anymore. No determined amount of physical goods can be purchased with it, meaning that it can be rendered effectively useless at any time.
Basically, our 'economy' is so ridiculously over-leveraged that any large disturbance will destroy it. We had that disturbance, and the End was postponed by shoddy means. The bill is coming due, and soon. The next turn of the tide may well be fatal. No new regulations were passed, no executives were perp-walked, and nothing has changed. The banks are doing the
exact same shit as before, and it does not matter what you or I think about it.
Enter into evidence, Exhibit 1-a:
