Developments in the area of USPACOM, Pacific Theatre

[ssu]

Some latest developments:

Aircraft Carrier Ronald Reagan now on the South China Sea and will participate in Excersizes with South Korea later this month:

The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier along with a guided-missile cruiser and a nuclear-powered submarine are on their way to the Korean Peninsula to prepare for a potential war with North Korea, while Pyongyang reportedly plans new missiles tests.

As of Friday afternoon, the USS Ronald Reagan, with nearly 80 aircraft on board, was in the South China Sea on its way to the shores of US ally South Korea. The two allies will conduct joint drills to detect, track, and intercept ballistic missiles, in addition to anti-submarine warfare training, Yonhap News agency reported, citing an unnamed South Korean official.

Noteworthy is that Nimitz is in the Persian Gulf, so there isn't another carrier there.



Strategic assets have been replaced in the theatre, like B-1 bombers:

The United States will send “strategic” military assets to South Korea on a more regular basis to better deter North Korea, the South’s national security adviser said Thursday.

The decision comes at a time of escalating tensions between the United States and North Korea, with many analysts concerned that incendiary rhetoric, combined with more frequent flyovers by U.S. bombers, could lead to a catastrophic miscalculation. Chung Eui-yong, national security adviser to President Moon Jae-in, told lawmakers in Seoul that U.S. “strategic assets” could be deployed to South Korea on a “rotational” basis before the end of the year.

“This will help us expand our defense capabilities,” he told the lawmakers, according to Park Wan-joo, spokesman for the ruling Democratic Party.

He did not define “strategic assets,” but South Korean officials usually use the term to refer to B-52 bombers, stealth warplanes, nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers.

Japan buying air-to-air missiles:

The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to Japan for AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs). The estimated cost is $113 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

The Government of Japan has requested a possible sale of fifty-six (56) AIM 120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs). Also included are containers, weapon support and support equipment, spare and repair parts, U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical and logistical support services, and other related elements of logistical and program support. The total estimated program cost is $113 million.

Waiting for the next North Korean missile test...

[de officiis]

Any predictions?

[ssu]

Any predictions?

One prediction here by an retired admiral, an 30% percent chanche of a conflict happening and 10% of a nuclear exchange:

Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis spent 37 years in the military, including four years as the supreme allied commander of NATO. Hillary Clinton vetted him as a possible running mate. President-elect Donald Trump considered naming him secretary of state. He is a serious man, and about as far from an armchair pundit as it’s possible to be.

And that’s precisely what makes his assessment of the escalating standoff with North Korea so jarring. Stavridis believes there’s at least a 10 percent chance of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea, and a 20 to 30 percent chance of a conventional, but still bloody, conflict.

“I think we are closer to a significant exchange of ordnance than we have been since the end of the Cold War on the Korean peninsula,” he said during a panel I moderated Tuesday at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House.

His estimate of the potential death toll from even a nonnuclear war with North Korea is just as striking. North Korea has at least 11,000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, South Korea’s capital of 25 million people, and would be certain to use them during any conflict. The US would be just as certain to mount a sustained bombing campaign to destroy those artillery pieces as quickly as possible.

The result? “It’s hard for me to see less than 500,000 to 1 million people, and I think that’s a conservative estimate,” he said.

See Former NATO military chief: there’s a 10% chance of nuclear war with North Korea

Admiral James Stavridis (SACEUR 2009-2013):


Likely is so that no war is more possible outcome than war, but still 30% is hell of a chance. And as I said in another thread, seems like Trump has been informed about the warplans and is likely is OK with them. He just cannot refrain from showing his views in his tweets.