2020 election

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StCapps
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Re: 2020 election

Post by StCapps » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:27 pm

clubgop wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:22 pm
StCapps wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:53 pm
DBTrek wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:50 pm
Yeah, I think Dems are closer to falling over the SJW ledge than StCapps realizes . . . but the old battle axes are too entrenched to be uprooted at this point. If Beto had been facing the same criticisms he'd be on his third or fourth Spanish speaking apology tour by now.
Then why did the neoliberals clean up against the far-left in the 2018 mid-term primaries if the party wants to swing super far left? Nah, the SJW faction has grown in recent years sure, but they are nowhere near the largest faction in the democrat party, and that lane is crowded with traffic. The far left has only done well in far left leaning house districts, they have no real electoral victories aside from them, that shit doesn't win elections, even in the Democratic party. All the Democrats who won Senate seats didn't go far left, no they moved to the center.

AOC is an outlier folks, the party doesn't want to head in AOC's direction, bad politicians just think they do.
This is where you are off. You put neolibs and SJWs at odds when in fact they are very comfortable with each other. In fact when the far left get out over their skis the corporate Ds relish using identity politics to check them. They try to out woke each other. That is not changing in fact that is inherent in the Biden narrative. The woke love a good redemption arch. Build him up, tear him down, rather, rinse, repeat. You talk about 2018 primaries, I think of Kansas 02 you had a Native American lesbian mma fighter vs a white Male college professor, the lesbian was the more moderate of the 2 and she won the primary. That whole party ran on identity politics.
Identity politics doesn't run the party, the corporate D's just mouth the slogans, to avoid the lynch mob, identity politics doesn't win the elections, the moderates do. |

You said it yourself the intersectional candidate in Kansas was actually more moderate, more establishment, and that's why she won. Can't win in Kansas on far-left identity politics, be real. The intersectional candidates who are successful in swing districts or red states don't win those seats by going more far left than their opponent, they win by out running their opponents to center, even in Dem Primaries, where the SJWs are at their strongest.

If that doesn't show how you are obviously over-estimating the intersectional coalition, I don't know what will. Y'all can front like the game has changed finally in 2020, but there is no historical evidence that running as far-left as possible is the path to victory here, all the evidence thus far points in the other direction, with a few outliers that are rather obvious outliers. The party might still go McGovern, it's not unprecedented, but they usually don't.

Not buying that politics has changed, the result of the Dem primary in 2020, will either be 1968/1984/2004, or 1972, all over again. Re-runs incoming y'all, brace yourselves. Either a Humphrey/Mondale/Kerry type takes it or a McGovern type takes it, the anti-establishment isn't taking over, either way.

1968 Forever, y'all still trapped in the Vietnam loop, it has not been broken, no matter how hard that you wish it was. There has been no re-alignment.
*yip*

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pineapplemike
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Re: 2020 election

Post by pineapplemike » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 pm

it's still early, no one is dunking on anyone else yet. first primary in late june? that's when i'm digging in, enjoy the spring break till then, catch up on vietnam history with smitty

Smitty-48
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Re: 2020 election

Post by Smitty-48 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:09 pm

pineapplemike wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 pm
catch up on vietnam history with smitty
Battle of Dak To. Hill 875. 173rd Airborne Brigade. Westy's Fire Brigade.

1967. 16,000 KIA to date.

Search & Destroy. Central Highlands.

Nec Aspera Terrent

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StCapps
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Re: 2020 election

Post by StCapps » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:10 pm

pineapplemike wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:59 pm
it's still early, no one is dunking on anyone else yet. first primary in late june? that's when i'm digging in, enjoy the spring break till then, catch up on vietnam history with smitty
Indeed, way too early to be writing off a candidate leading the polls prematurely. Take that wishful thinking Biden haters.
*yip*

Smitty-48
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Re: 2020 election

Post by Smitty-48 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:23 pm

Hill 875 at Dak To.

173rd Airborne Brigade surrounded by the NVA.

Airstrikes called in to drive the NVA back

The last one missed its target and landed right amongst the American Paratroopers.

32 killed, an entire platoon wiped out, in an instant.

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pineapplemike
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Re: 2020 election

Post by pineapplemike » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:48 pm

why didn't they just, yknow, win the war? did they think to try that? if i were a general my focus would be on winning

Smitty-48
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Re: 2020 election

Post by Smitty-48 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:57 pm

pineapplemike wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:48 pm
why didn't they just, yknow, win the war? did they think to try that? if i were a general my focus would be on winning
LBJ wanted to win too quickly. Politically he couldn't accept defeat, but he also couldn't accept a long war.

LBJ was thinking it was going to be a rather one sided affair where America whupped em but good and quick.

This led to the Search & Destroy dynamic of chasing them around the country trying to wipe them out.

If LBJ had been up front and said it was going to be a sustained effort requiring years?

Perhaps then he could have adopted a more effective strategy.
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Smitty-48
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Re: 2020 election

Post by Smitty-48 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:07 pm

The Best & Brightest led by McNamara were also overly focussed on the Viet Cong.

They vastly overestimated the Viet Cong while vastly underestimating ARVN willingness to defend the cities.

This led to excessive counter insurgency operations, more chasing them around suffering casualties all the way.

When in fact America could have just hung back and focused on bombing, without chasing them around.

Because the Viet Cong did not need to be wiped out.

They couldn't do anything without the NVA.

The NVA couldn't take the cities without massing on the battlefield.

Whenever they did that, the ARVN fought hard, and America bombed the rest of them into oblivion.

Search & Destroy was the wrong concept of operations, near term politically driven rather than strategic.

America was strategically dominant. Could have leveraged that to break the NVA without chasing them.

It's a war of attrition, so be it.

If you chase them around doing Search & Destroy, you suffer 50,000 killed to kill 1,000,000 of them.

That's not good enough.

If you hold the cities and otherwise just bomb them, that's more like 5,000 killed to kill 1,000,000 of them.

Even for the North Vietnamese, 200 to 1 losses was too much, they were at the breaking point with 20 to 1.

Creighton Abrams did adopt the correct strategy in the end, but by then it was too late.

Search & Destroy had already broke the morale by the time Abrams had a chance to take over.

You can't blow your wad on three years of Search & Destroy racking up 35,000 KIA before said correction.

If LBJ had gone with Abrams instead of Westmoreland, that back breaking three years doesn't have to happen.
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Smitty-48
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Re: 2020 election

Post by Smitty-48 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:33 pm

Dak To is a perfect example.

There was absolutely no strategic reason to fight that battle.

Those NVA in the Highlands were in no position to take the cities.

They were up in the mountains with no civilians around.

Don't chase them up there.

Just bomb them.

That's 280 American troops not killed, right there.

Just stop doing that, and it's tens of thousands of Americans troops not killed, when you add it all up.

No Ia Drang. No Dak To. No A Shau. Just stop doing that.

Instead, do more of this;

Linebacker.

Arc Light.

Commando Sabre.

Phoenix Program.
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clubgop
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Re: 2020 election

Post by clubgop » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:25 am

StCapps wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:27 pm
clubgop wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:22 pm
StCapps wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:53 pm
Then why did the neoliberals clean up against the far-left in the 2018 mid-term primaries if the party wants to swing super far left? Nah, the SJW faction has grown in recent years sure, but they are nowhere near the largest faction in the democrat party, and that lane is crowded with traffic. The far left has only done well in far left leaning house districts, they have no real electoral victories aside from them, that shit doesn't win elections, even in the Democratic party. All the Democrats who won Senate seats didn't go far left, no they moved to the center.

AOC is an outlier folks, the party doesn't want to head in AOC's direction, bad politicians just think they do.
This is where you are off. You put neolibs and SJWs at odds when in fact they are very comfortable with each other. In fact when the far left get out over their skis the corporate Ds relish using identity politics to check them. They try to out woke each other. That is not changing in fact that is inherent in the Biden narrative. The woke love a good redemption arch. Build him up, tear him down, rather, rinse, repeat. You talk about 2018 primaries, I think of Kansas 02 you had a Native American lesbian mma fighter vs a white Male college professor, the lesbian was the more moderate of the 2 and she won the primary. That whole party ran on identity politics.
Identity politics doesn't run the party, the corporate D's just mouth the slogans, to avoid the lynch mob, identity politics doesn't win the elections, the moderates do.
That is all SJW are and do, just mouth the words like a corporate pablum, why do you think they are called NPCs? "beautiful at any size," "Caitlyn Jenner is stunning and brave," "that's racist," "Kevin Spacey, Harvey Weinstein and the dude from Double Dare on Nickelodeon touched me," "Orange man, bad."

Doesn't deviate from the Vietnam pattern, instead of Robert Macnamara estimating the number of body bags, its Biden estimating how many creepy uncle Joe stories can he weather. Answer, not many. That's the thing about being a moderate squish. Your support maybe a mile wide but an only an inch deep. That's not even a good rice paddy. Vietnam quagmire worthy.