W.H.O. (are you), WHO WHO

[C-Mag]

So how is it Trump knew how bad it was going to be by the end of January ?

If he didn't know then what was his motivation for shutting down flights to and from China?

Wise precaution
The classified briefing on the Chi-na Virus in Congress
Racism

you pick

[Montegriffo]

Monte and I probably disagree on Trumps culpability in the current crises.

Out of interest, how do you explain Trump continuing to downplay it long after most people recognised the seriousness of the bug?
I don't hold Trump exclusively responsible for mishandling this outbreak. Boris made mistakes early on with his herd immunity theories but at least he recognised his mistake fairly quickly and has since done everything in his power to mitigate it. To me, Trump appears to have just done his usual deriding of experts and scapegoating others in order to deflect from his own shortcomings.

Well, I can't totally explain it, but if I were responsible for the stability of the global economy, I would probably have been very cautious about over reacting. I can't say I would have done any different when balancing the two disasters, public health and economic, against each other.

I do wish he would stop firing broadsides against everyone in order to deflect responsibility, and just be open about his decision making processes, where the info was bad, and mistakes were made. But, the fact that he is petty, narcissistic, and short sighted doesn't mean he was wrong to be cautious about shutting down the economy, or responsible for any of the deaths.

It's the prioritising of the economy over any public health concerns that I find the most troubling.
My suspicious mind is led to believe that reelection in November is his primary motivation.

[BjornP]

So, you think there would have been experts that could have given you a more accurate prediction, sooner? Who?

Yes
I watched all kinds of video and reports from China in January that made it clear China had lost control of the disease. I was able to make an assessment that it would go global and I inventoried my supplies and bought items I needed.

Right. You're not a medical expert, though, Carlus. Even if you were right, the sensible thing for federal or state governments would have been to ignore your assessment.

[Montegriffo]

So how is it Trump knew how bad it was going to be by the end of January ?

If he didn't know then what was his motivation for shutting down flights to and from China?

Wise precaution
The classified briefing on the Chi-na Virus in Congress
Racism

you pick

Well, the first two make his subsequent inaction unfathomable and I've not accused him of the 3rd.
I think fear over the negative consequences to his reelection chances as a result of damage to the economy is another possible reason. Hence the downplaying and insistence that it would miraculously go away as soon as the weather got warmer.

[C-Mag]

So, you think there would have been experts that could have given you a more accurate prediction, sooner? Who?

Yes
I watched all kinds of video and reports from China in January that made it clear China had lost control of the disease. I was able to make an assessment that it would go global and I inventoried my supplies and bought items I needed.

Right. You're not a medical expert, though, Carlus. Even if you were right, the sensible thing for federal or state governments would have been to ignore your assessment.

That's sounds advice.

But Monte says you and Hanarchy are wrong. He says the experts and Trump knew by the end of January and Trumps inaction led to deaths.

[C-Mag]

Well, the first two make his subsequent inaction unfathomable and I've not accused him of the 3rd.
I think fear over the negative consequences to his reelection chances as a result of damage to the economy is another possible reason.

Fauci confirmed yesterday that Trump listened to the Experts and did what the Experts told him to do, the first time they told him.

[Montegriffo]

Yes
I watched all kinds of video and reports from China in January that made it clear China had lost control of the disease. I was able to make an assessment that it would go global and I inventoried my supplies and bought items I needed.

Right. You're not a medical expert, though, Carlus. Even if you were right, the sensible thing for federal or state governments would have been to ignore your assessment.

That's sounds advice.

But Monte says you and Hanarchy are wrong. He says the experts and Trump knew by the end of January and Trumps inaction led to deaths.

I'm not saying that Trump knew at the end of January. I think it is more likely that he was just playing to his base when he stopped flights to and from China.

[Montegriffo]

Well, the first two make his subsequent inaction unfathomable and I've not accused him of the 3rd.
I think fear over the negative consequences to his reelection chances as a result of damage to the economy is another possible reason.

Fauci confirmed yesterday that Trump listened to the Experts and did what the Experts told him to do, the first time they told him.

LOL.
After Trump retweeted calls for his sacking.
Not hard to imagine that pressure was put on him to big up Trump or else.

[heydaralon]

I am out of my depth here, but as I understand it, the failure of the League of Nations is tied to the failure of the Treaty of Versailles. They were too inextricably tied together, and so punitive that they all but ensured more conflict. I don't believe this invalidates the concept of a multi-lateral diplomatic organization.

I agree that the existence of nuclear weapons has been a major deterrent, but I don't know if you can exorcise international bodies like NATO or the UN that used sanction and diplomacy to halt nuclear proliferation. Perhaps everything would have proceeded exactly the same without them, but I doubt it.

Knowing basically nothing about post Napoleonic Wars European diplomacy, I can't say much. I will say that, as with everything, past failures inform future successes.

The saying isn't "if at first you don't succeed, meh, fuck it, it is too hard, and probably gay anyway."

I realize that missile shields are kind a pork pipe dream, but I have often wondered what would happen if they were invented and became highly effective.

It would sort of put us back to square one in a lot of ways. Like, Great Powers could wage economic wars and stuff, but they'd have to mobilize again right and invade each other?

In that War book Dan Carlin mentioned, Dyer talked about how if we fought a non nuclear (or post nuclear) war with another Great Power, that we'd lose all the awesome shit fast. The fighters etc, and we would not be able to replenish them quickly enough. Adjusted for inflation I think I read that F-15's are like 100 times more expensive than the fighters of WW2. They also take a long time to make. I have no idea about the F-35's but I'm sure they cost an insane amount to produce one. What would happen if both sides ran out of fancy gear?

During the Yom Kippur War Israel vs Syria and Egypt were getting backed by Russia and America and they were just losing hundreds of tanks out there in the desert. They lost a shitload of equipment in a matter of hours. The Shah had I want to say the fourth largest army in the World before he got kicked out. He bought record numbers of top notch tanks and fighters from Britain and America. His logistics were shit and all but he still had an incredible force on paper. Now fast forward like 10 years later to the Iran Iraq War. No parts for the cool toys because the Shah is gone and America has an embargo against Iran. So they have to resort to human wave attacks against Saddam. They were getting kids to do Stalingrad style charges against the Iraqis. They went back in time to WW1 basically. Paths of Glory in the 80's.

Imagine two nuclear armed powers fighting a ground war in 2030 where we have to resort back to Verdun type stuff. This might be a retarded thought idk, but I've often pictured how a ground war would go down if America fought China or Russia. I wonder if it could even reach that point.

[BjornP]

Yes
I watched all kinds of video and reports from China in January that made it clear China had lost control of the disease. I was able to make an assessment that it would go global and I inventoried my supplies and bought items I needed.

Right. You're not a medical expert, though, Carlus. Even if you were right, the sensible thing for federal or state governments would have been to ignore your assessment.

That's sounds advice.

But Monte says you and Hanarchy are wrong. He says the experts and Trump knew by the end of January and Trumps inaction led to deaths.

Meh. No idea what Trump knew or didn't know and don't really care. He changes his opinion alot, so Monte could be right. Or not. Don't see the importance. I do wonder, if it should turn out that bat aids is seasonal and becomes worse by fall/winter '20, if that will benefit or worsen Trump's re-election chances among his voters? Not sure if he can do it constitutionally, but in an interview he seemingly hinted at demanding that voters shouldn't be allowed to vote by mail. Seemed like a bad move on his part, politically. Even if most Democratic voters are in the cities, and they'll opt for staying home for fear of bat aids, there are still going to be some who vote.