Smitty-48 wrote:We not even willing to renegotiate, Trudeau is just stringing him along.
Sure looks like we are willing to re-negotiate, it could be a bluff I suppose.
They're not going to give up any of the big stuff that the Americans are demanding, it will just be a stalemate, and then the Americans will back down.
You know Smitty how this is going to end.
Trump will bomb something... as last time the Syria bombing got him positive media attention (and he seemed to like it).
Just look at how excited he is (even if he gets the country wrong, but who cares):
Likely it's the Middle East and ISIS.
MOABs and B-52 carpet bombing empty desert. Good stuff for a show.
Smitty-48 wrote:I'm not sure I understand, are you going short with options? AAPL short 90 long 140 kind of thing, or are you saying you're going to short Apple without a hedge? No calls, no puts, you're just going short and rolling the dice?
Remember last year when guys were saying "oh, it's time to short AAPL, they're doomed"? And you know, it's up 38%, just because iPhone market share has dropped, I don't think quite time to bet the farm against AAPL yet.
I'm not actively shorting (holding puts on) Apple at the moment, just AMD, because they spiked up on nothing, and long (holding calls on) AFSI (my soon to be former employer) because they tanked on nothing.
All I'm doing is buying a put or call (buying premium) to bet on what happens with the stock within a given timeframe - that's the hard part. Usually, it's timed for after the next earnings date. So, if I believed that now was the time for Apple to come back down to reality, I'd purchase a put near what I thought the stock was going to, and for the week after their next Earnings. If I had a specific target in mind, given chart patterns, I'd also sell (short) a put around that price. That way, my entry is even cheaper, and I'm targeting a certain move within that timeframe. I make a closing order to get rid of the position when it's at max value, and let it sit.
You can also short options (sell premium), which is much riskier, but much more likely to pay off. The problem is that you're liable for whatever-the-hell that option's value is when you close it. So, if I sell a $150 call on Apple for next week (for example), it currently pays out around $40 in premium to me. If Apple doesn't go over $150 by next friday, I keep it. If it does, I'm on the hook for 100x the stock price over $150.
The entire concept of options revolves around betting on the movement of 100 shares, without actually owning them.
OK, that makes sense, so you're short till May 5th? Basically hedging for a dissapointing report?
Smitty-48 wrote:I'm not sure I understand, are you going short with options? AAPL short 90 long 140 kind of thing, or are you saying you're going to short Apple without a hedge? No calls, no puts, you're just going short and rolling the dice?
Remember last year when guys were saying "oh, it's time to short AAPL, they're doomed"? And you know, it's up 38%, just because iPhone market share has dropped, I don't think quite time to bet the farm against AAPL yet.
I'm not actively shorting (holding puts on) Apple at the moment, just AMD, because they spiked up on nothing, and long (holding calls on) AFSI (my soon to be former employer) because they tanked on nothing.
All I'm doing is buying a put or call (buying premium) to bet on what happens with the stock within a given timeframe - that's the hard part. Usually, it's timed for after the next earnings date. So, if I believed that now was the time for Apple to come back down to reality, I'd purchase a put near what I thought the stock was going to, and for the week after their next Earnings. If I had a specific target in mind, given chart patterns, I'd also sell (short) a put around that price. That way, my entry is even cheaper, and I'm targeting a certain move within that timeframe. I make a closing order to get rid of the position when it's at max value, and let it sit.
You can also short options (sell premium), which is much riskier, but much more likely to pay off. The problem is that you're liable for whatever-the-hell that option's value is when you close it. So, if I sell a $150 call on Apple for next week (for example), it currently pays out around $40 in premium to me. If Apple doesn't go over $150 by next friday, I keep it. If it does, I'm on the hook for 100x the stock price over $150.
The entire concept of options revolves around betting on the movement of 100 shares, without actually owning them.
OK, that makes sense, so you're short till May 5th? Basically hedging for a dissapointing report?
Yep. And if the report doesn't disappoint, then I lose whatever I bet on it. 100:1 odds, just like a craps table.
StCapps wrote:Sure looks like we are willing to re-negotiate, it could be a bluff I suppose.
They're not going to give up any of the big stuff that the Americans are demanding, it will just be a stalemate, and then the Americans will back down.
You know Smitty how this is going to end.
Trump will keep blustering away in a phony war, with very little to show for it, but Reagonomics on steroids will juice the markets in the near term, and the Democrats will overinterpret the Bernie Bros factor by tacking too far to the Left, running some panty waist Kook in 2020, so Trump will win anyways?
Reagan > Carter... Reagan > Dukakis. Mondale could actually win, but watch the Democrats run a Dukakis, they. are. that. dumb.
Last edited by Smitty-48 on Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
Smitty-48 wrote:Trump will keep blustering away in a phony war, with very little to show for it, but Reagonomics on steroids will juice the markets in the near term, and the Democrats will overinterpret the Bernie Bros factor by tacking too far to the Left, running some panty waist Kook in 2020, so Trump will win anyways?
The Democrats are doubling down on Lefty Kooks of all stripes, Race Hustlers, Enviro-Bolshies, OWS Firebrands, Peacenik Wimps, they seem more interested in fundraising than actually winning back the WH, it's like they've pretty much accepted that's its going to be eight more years of the Gipper, er I mean the Trumpster...
... cue the Hulkster, it's the 80's all over again;
StCapps wrote:Sounds like an excellent prediction to me.
The Centrist wing of the party flopped hard, so now the Left wing of the party has decided that it is their time to shine, so just when you need Jack Kennedy, you'll get Abbie Hoffman, and Hulk Hogan will subsequently mop the floor with him, just by shouting "U-S-A! U-S-A!"
Speaker to Animals wrote:I think people get the wrong idea about speculation because the only way they really understand it is in the context of real estate. But there exist no easy ways to "short" a property, etc. You can do that stuff with mortgages, but that's a different issue. Speculation in the real estate market means people are just buying more property than they need in the expectation that the price of the land or house will be higher in a few years.
The real estate market is exactly like the stock market would be if there were no such things as derivatives and short selling. You get people buying lots and lots of some stocks until there was a bust. Derivatives and short selling keep that from happening (most of the time).
It's not 100%, by any means, but it would be much worse without those things.
What do you think about the housing markets in SF or Vancouver where foreign buyers from China or UAE buy property that they will never live in? In China, there are restrictions on how much foreign investment you can make, so many wealthy Chinese people buy property in the west to hide their money. This skews the local market and fucks over middle class people looking to settle in somewhere. What is the best way to stop this? How can the United States and Canada insulate themselves from this sort of behavior? Many of these real estate sales take place with a third party or shell company, so they are difficult to stop, but I think it is a serious problem.
Speaker to Animals wrote:I think people get the wrong idea about speculation because the only way they really understand it is in the context of real estate. But there exist no easy ways to "short" a property, etc. You can do that stuff with mortgages, but that's a different issue. Speculation in the real estate market means people are just buying more property than they need in the expectation that the price of the land or house will be higher in a few years.
The real estate market is exactly like the stock market would be if there were no such things as derivatives and short selling. You get people buying lots and lots of some stocks until there was a bust. Derivatives and short selling keep that from happening (most of the time).
It's not 100%, by any means, but it would be much worse without those things.
What do you think about the housing markets in SF or Vancouver where foreign buyers from China or UAE buy property that they will never live in? In China, there are restrictions on how much foreign investment you can make, so many wealthy Chinese people buy property in the west to hide their money. This skews the local market and fucks over middle class people looking to settle in somewhere. What is the best way to stop this? How can the United States and Canada insulate themselves from this sort of behavior? Many of these real estate sales take place with a third party or shell company, so they are difficult to stop, but I think it is a serious problem.
More buyers drives up prices. There exist no mechanisms to short sell properties and trade on derivatives for local real estate markets that I know of. There are some REIT funds and you can probably trade derivatives on real estate ETFs of some kind. But the actual real estate market is prone to boom and bust cycles because it has no such mechanisms.
If you removed speculative trades like short selling and derivatives, the stock and futures market would be the same way.
My old man's retired. He never sank a cent into a stock or and IRA, but he invested in me. I guess you could say that was a gamble too, but it's paying dividends.
GrumpyCatFace wrote:Dumb slut partied too hard and woke up in a weird house. Ran out the door, weeping for her failed life choices, concerned townsfolk notes her appearance and alerted the fuzz.
