THE ERA OF TRUMP

[apeman]

This AM: GDP is .7%, worst personal spending since 2009.

Market opens with negative volatility, stocks up, treasuries down. AKA opposite world.

This is how I finally learned to love Big Brother.

[Ex-California]

I don't gamble

Then you also don't retire, ever.

I have a pension, so people are doing the gambling for me. I contribute to a 401k also where I can pick and choose funds but I let the gamblers do that for me as well. So someone is gambling, but I'm not

Mine's not a public pension so we don't have to go down that road.

And despite its basically a fact that the market has been growing for centuries now, it still is gambling. The odds are just a lot better

[SuburbanFarmer]

Many good posts over the past several pages.

Also, I bet no one here has successfully shorted anything, ever, despite the talk.

Not true. Made a nice profit on GPRO after their IPO, and doing the same to SNAP now. Just taking a bit longer, because they managed to lock up their 'non-voting shares' until August.

Lots of smaller ones, such as the SPY dip last summer, and the summer before that.

Post screenshots of your transactions or I don't believe it.

Meh, digging into statements and shit on TdAmeritrade, but it doesn't lay it out like that.
Long term, I'm a loser anyway. I've only been in the game for 2-3 years now, so take it for what it's worth. But I'll be very, very excited when things break down.

[apeman]

I don't gamble

Then you also don't retire, ever.

I have a pension, so people are doing the gambling for me. I contribute to a 401k also where I can pick and choose funds but I let the gamblers do that for me as well. So someone is gambling, but I'm not

Mine's not a public pension so we don't have to go down that road.

And despite its basically a fact that the market has been growing for centuries now, it still is gambling. The odds are just a lot better

OK you are gambling too.

Life is a gamble anyway, no risk, no reward.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Then you also don't retire, ever.

I have a pension, so people are doing the gambling for me. I contribute to a 401k also where I can pick and choose funds but I let the gamblers do that for me as well. So someone is gambling, but I'm not

Mine's not a public pension so we don't have to go down that road.

And despite its basically a fact that the market has been growing for centuries now, it still is gambling. The odds are just a lot better

OK you are gambling too.

Life is a gamble anyway, no risk, no reward.

Oh, absolutely. Biggest casino in the world - and the only legal online one, funny enough. Its' rich-people lotto tickets.

You can have a "safe return" over 30-40 years, and make a little, but there's still risk. And if that company goes under, go fuck yourself - croupier scoops the pot. You can buy bonds with extremely low risk, and get guaranteed change jar money, unless the US Government defaults (which it could). I just go further toward the Risk end, for bigger Reward.

I love it when gamblers convince themselves that they're safe. Makes me money.

Look at it this way - there are multi-billion-dollar corporations issuing "research analysis" on bullshit like Go-Pro, Twitter, and SnapChat right now. Why would they do such a thing? Look a little, and learn that they're underwriting those IPOs and pumping the price until they sell.
Does Twitter actually make a profit? Do they ever plan on issuing a dividend? Fuck no, so what are you buying? Hopium.

There are examples of this throughout the casino. Giant, unprofitable scams being sold as "investments" to idiots that think they're buying ownership in a company that will magically spit money at them forever.

Smitty likes to tell us about the Apples and Microsofts that surely, will never stop making him money. What has Apple released in the last 5 years? Incremental iPhone upgrades, which telcos aren't subsidizing anymore, and a fucking watch. Still the highest-valued stock in the world, because... hopium. Eventually, the fever breaks, and I wanna be there to catch it. But don't pretend that this is anything other than a casino.

[Ex-California]

Then you also don't retire, ever.

I have a pension, so people are doing the gambling for me. I contribute to a 401k also where I can pick and choose funds but I let the gamblers do that for me as well. So someone is gambling, but I'm not

Mine's not a public pension so we don't have to go down that road.

And despite its basically a fact that the market has been growing for centuries now, it still is gambling. The odds are just a lot better

OK you are gambling too.

Life is a gamble anyway, no risk, no reward.

And like I said, I entered in my biggest gamble a couple months ago when i bought my house

[heydaralon]

How do you bet against something like Facebook or Twitter? If there's a way I would probably do that just out of spite. I hate social media (except MHF) passionately, and I think it would be a truly wonderful thing if it stopped existing tomorrow. That shit is cancer.

[SuburbanFarmer]

How do you bet against something like Facebook or Twitter? If there's a way I would probably do that just out of spite. I hate social media (except MHF) passionately, and I think it would be a truly wonderful thing if it stopped existing tomorrow. That shit is cancer.

You need a margin-approved trading account on TdAmeritrade, Charles Schwab, or any of the brokers. Deposit money, wait a week for it to go through, then short-sell a stock of choice.

You'll get $1 for every $1 that a share goes down, but you'll also be liable for $1 every time it goes up. It's a risky thing, and you can lose 1.5x what you bet on it (more, if you have more money in the account).

The other option is to get approved for Options-trading. This allows you to buy dated options that make 100x $1 for the stock movement - puts pay when it goes down, calls pay when it goes up. You can only lose what you spent on the option, but the prices are (of course) slanted toward the house, and the option is only good until the expiration date that you choose. More time = more money.

Do a bit of research before you try it though, and only bet what you can afford to lose. Remember that it's a casino designed to take your money.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/options/

[Smitty-48]

It's not a casino, unless you're trying to beat the market, if you're just trying to beat a savings account, in the current macro paradigm, that's not hard, because a savings account is paying jack shit these days, conservative long position vs. 2.5% interest, ain't that much of a gamble, going short and making bets against the street, well, like I said, that's not my cup of tea.

But if you think American blue chip dividends long, is a casino, then you've never been to a casino apparently.

Bear in mind, if the whole macro trend shifts dramatically, and interest rates go way up, the hedge for that is; ok, back to the savings account everybody.

[SuburbanFarmer]

It's not a casino, unless you're trying to beat the market, if you're just trying to beat a savings account, in the current macro paradigm, that's not hard, because a savings account is paying jack shit these days, conservative long position vs. 2.5% interest, ain't that much of a gamble, going short and making bets against the street, well, like I said, that's not my cup of tea.

You get 2.5% interest on savings up there? LMFAO We get like .5%, if anything. That's why our market is so absurd right now.

Yeah, I've got a 401k, just in case it's still worth anything in 30 years, but this is a hell of a lot easier than driving 1.5 hours to a casino.

All of it is a casino. You can grind blackjack or limit poker for 2 days (bonds), you can play slot machines (short stock), or you can play craps, get money moving, and have fun (options).

It's all just dumbassery, with different risk levels. Don't imagine for a minute that Apple is immune to the market cycle, or that they'll always be king of the hill. I'm sure GE and US Steel investors felt the same.

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