THE ERA OF TRUMP

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Speaker to Animals
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by Speaker to Animals » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:34 pm

heydaralon wrote:A derivative is just a bet I thought. Its where you bet something is gonna increase, decrease, or stay the same in value. I have no idea how the fuck to make money off them though.

They are good to hedge risk. If you have a long position in a gold mining company, for example, though the company runs well, a reversal in the gold futures market could harm your position a bit. But you can hedge that position in the options markets (a kind of derivative on stocks) by purchasing a put contract on a gold ETF. You bet that the gold market will be lower, purchasing the right to sell so many shares of the ETF at a higher price than you project it to be. If gold prices plummet, your derivative bet will do well. If it increases, then it will do badly. If it trades sideways, you will lose a little. You could do the same thing by shorting a call option. Just be ready to unwind your derivatives on a dime, and keep track of expiration dates since you have an obligation to fulfill the contract on that date, which is a good thing if the gold market did indeed collapse, since you will purchase the ETF at the current lower price and sell it to the other party for a higher price. But if it doesn't fall, then sell it early.

Also, if you have a long position on some stock, you might want to trade on volatility of that position. So you are making relatively frequent trades of derivatives based on some of the shares you possess in your portfolio.

There are derivatives for weird shit like the weather as well. You can use weather derivatives to manage risk in futures markets (like corn and oats) where future weather can result in drastic swings in price and increased volatility.

heydaralon
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by heydaralon » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:34 pm

GrumpyCatFace wrote:
Okeefenokee wrote:
heydaralon wrote:A derivative is just a bet I thought. Its where you bet something is gonna increase, decrease, or stay the same in value. I have no idea how the fuck to make money off them though.
Not even Greenspan understood them. GCF sure as fuck does not. But queen Warren told him what to think, so that's what he posts.
You're embarrassing yourself. Here's the kid's version.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Options_spread

http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... trategies/
I know very little about economics or investment banking. I took a micro and macro seven years ago. I'm not embarrassed to claim ignorance here lol.
Shikata ga nai

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SuburbanFarmer
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by SuburbanFarmer » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:38 pm

heydaralon wrote:
GrumpyCatFace wrote:
Okeefenokee wrote:
Not even Greenspan understood them. GCF sure as fuck does not. But queen Warren told him what to think, so that's what he posts.
You're embarrassing yourself. Here's the kid's version.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Options_spread

http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... trategies/
I know very little about economics or investment banking. I took a micro and macro seven years ago. I'm not embarrassed to claim ignorance here lol.
It's understandable. Most people aren't familiar with anything beyond corporate stocks. I'm just annoyed that Okee is taking the time to troll all over my posts, to hide his ignorance.
SJWs are a natural consequence of corporatism.

Formerly GrumpyCatFace

https://youtu.be/CYbT8-rSqo0

heydaralon
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by heydaralon » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:47 pm

Speaker to Animals wrote:
heydaralon wrote:A derivative is just a bet I thought. Its where you bet something is gonna increase, decrease, or stay the same in value. I have no idea how the fuck to make money off them though.

They are good to hedge risk. If you have a long position in a gold mining company, for example, though the company runs well, a reversal in the gold futures market could harm your position a bit. But you can hedge that position in the options markets (a kind of derivative on stocks) by purchasing a put contract on a gold ETF. You bet that the gold market will be lower, purchasing the right to sell so many shares of the ETF at a higher price than you project it to be. If gold prices plummet, your derivative bet will do well. If it increases, then it will do badly. If it trades sideways, you will lose a little. You could do the same thing by shorting a call option. Just be ready to unwind your derivatives on a dime, and keep track of expiration dates since you have an obligation to fulfill the contract on that date, which is a good thing if the gold market did indeed collapse, since you will purchase the ETF at the current lower price and sell it to the other party for a higher price. But if it doesn't fall, then sell it early.

Also, if you have a long position on some stock, you might want to trade on volatility of that position. So you are making relatively frequent trades of derivatives based on some of the shares you possess in your portfolio.

There are derivatives for weird shit like the weather as well. You can use weather derivatives to manage risk in futures markets (like corn and oats) where future weather can result in drastic swings in price and increased volatility.
Gambling seems to be part of human nature, and it seems to exist in every society in some form or another. That being said, in spite of my limited knowledge, it irritates me that entire markets are built on speculation, especially since said speculation warps the prices of commodities. I don't know much about this, but it seems like this sort of behavior usually leads to bubbles and stuff. Also for things like crops, in my opinion, it seems very dumb to speculate on them because there will probably be advances in agriculture that makes cultivating them cheaper. Or there could be a huge famine in 20 years so idk. Fracking has become much much cheaper, so I guess that kind of already happened with oil. I'm not claiming to understand how the markets work or anything, but it seems like they are just insanity at the bottom. Keynes would have called it Animal Spirits (I think).
Shikata ga nai

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Speaker to Animals
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by Speaker to Animals » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:52 pm

heydaralon wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:
heydaralon wrote:A derivative is just a bet I thought. Its where you bet something is gonna increase, decrease, or stay the same in value. I have no idea how the fuck to make money off them though.

They are good to hedge risk. If you have a long position in a gold mining company, for example, though the company runs well, a reversal in the gold futures market could harm your position a bit. But you can hedge that position in the options markets (a kind of derivative on stocks) by purchasing a put contract on a gold ETF. You bet that the gold market will be lower, purchasing the right to sell so many shares of the ETF at a higher price than you project it to be. If gold prices plummet, your derivative bet will do well. If it increases, then it will do badly. If it trades sideways, you will lose a little. You could do the same thing by shorting a call option. Just be ready to unwind your derivatives on a dime, and keep track of expiration dates since you have an obligation to fulfill the contract on that date, which is a good thing if the gold market did indeed collapse, since you will purchase the ETF at the current lower price and sell it to the other party for a higher price. But if it doesn't fall, then sell it early.

Also, if you have a long position on some stock, you might want to trade on volatility of that position. So you are making relatively frequent trades of derivatives based on some of the shares you possess in your portfolio.

There are derivatives for weird shit like the weather as well. You can use weather derivatives to manage risk in futures markets (like corn and oats) where future weather can result in drastic swings in price and increased volatility.
Gambling seems to be part of human nature, and it seems to exist in every society in some form or another. That being said, in spite of my limited knowledge, it irritates me that entire markets are built on speculation, especially since said speculation warps the prices of commodities. I don't know much about this, but it seems like this sort of behavior usually leads to bubbles and stuff. Also for things like crops, in my opinion, it seems very dumb to speculate on them because there will probably be advances in agriculture that makes cultivating them cheaper. Or there could be a huge famine in 20 years so idk. Fracking has become much much cheaper, so I guess that kind of already happened with oil. I'm not claiming to understand how the markets work or anything, but it seems like they are just insanity at the bottom. Keynes would have called it Animal Spirits (I think).

Makes the price more efficient, actually.

Too much people buying something can drive up the price of it. But speculators are taking short positions too. Without the speculation, you just have people buying shit until they realize it's overpriced and then the whole thing collapses.

heydaralon
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by heydaralon » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:53 pm

Speaker to Animals wrote:
heydaralon wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:

They are good to hedge risk. If you have a long position in a gold mining company, for example, though the company runs well, a reversal in the gold futures market could harm your position a bit. But you can hedge that position in the options markets (a kind of derivative on stocks) by purchasing a put contract on a gold ETF. You bet that the gold market will be lower, purchasing the right to sell so many shares of the ETF at a higher price than you project it to be. If gold prices plummet, your derivative bet will do well. If it increases, then it will do badly. If it trades sideways, you will lose a little. You could do the same thing by shorting a call option. Just be ready to unwind your derivatives on a dime, and keep track of expiration dates since you have an obligation to fulfill the contract on that date, which is a good thing if the gold market did indeed collapse, since you will purchase the ETF at the current lower price and sell it to the other party for a higher price. But if it doesn't fall, then sell it early.

Also, if you have a long position on some stock, you might want to trade on volatility of that position. So you are making relatively frequent trades of derivatives based on some of the shares you possess in your portfolio.

There are derivatives for weird shit like the weather as well. You can use weather derivatives to manage risk in futures markets (like corn and oats) where future weather can result in drastic swings in price and increased volatility.
Gambling seems to be part of human nature, and it seems to exist in every society in some form or another. That being said, in spite of my limited knowledge, it irritates me that entire markets are built on speculation, especially since said speculation warps the prices of commodities. I don't know much about this, but it seems like this sort of behavior usually leads to bubbles and stuff. Also for things like crops, in my opinion, it seems very dumb to speculate on them because there will probably be advances in agriculture that makes cultivating them cheaper. Or there could be a huge famine in 20 years so idk. Fracking has become much much cheaper, so I guess that kind of already happened with oil. I'm not claiming to understand how the markets work or anything, but it seems like they are just insanity at the bottom. Keynes would have called it Animal Spirits (I think).

Makes the price more efficient, actually.

Too much people buying something can drive up the price of it. But speculators are taking short positions too. Without the speculation, you just have people buying shit until they realize it's overpriced and then the whole thing collapses.
explain to me in a dumbed down way why that is the case. It seems counter intuitive.
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Speaker to Animals
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by Speaker to Animals » Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:03 pm

heydaralon wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:
heydaralon wrote:
Gambling seems to be part of human nature, and it seems to exist in every society in some form or another. That being said, in spite of my limited knowledge, it irritates me that entire markets are built on speculation, especially since said speculation warps the prices of commodities. I don't know much about this, but it seems like this sort of behavior usually leads to bubbles and stuff. Also for things like crops, in my opinion, it seems very dumb to speculate on them because there will probably be advances in agriculture that makes cultivating them cheaper. Or there could be a huge famine in 20 years so idk. Fracking has become much much cheaper, so I guess that kind of already happened with oil. I'm not claiming to understand how the markets work or anything, but it seems like they are just insanity at the bottom. Keynes would have called it Animal Spirits (I think).

Makes the price more efficient, actually.

Too much people buying something can drive up the price of it. But speculators are taking short positions too. Without the speculation, you just have people buying shit until they realize it's overpriced and then the whole thing collapses.
explain to me in a dumbed down way why that is the case. It seems counter intuitive.

Speculators make money by trading on volatility. But by so doing, they tend to reduce volatility since they are all taking various sides of trades. Get rid of speculative trades like short selling and options contracts, and markets would become much less stable. There would be less liquidity as well.

Granted, markets also have to pay makers to do their thing as well to keep up liquidity.

A market is kind of like a perfect little ecosystem. All these different kinds of traders are like a specific species that evolved to optimize in a particular niche. If you get rid of one thing, it tends to mess up the whole ecosystem, and each of these roles evolved naturally for a reason.
Last edited by Speaker to Animals on Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by Okeefenokee » Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:04 pm

GrumpyCatFace wrote:
heydaralon wrote:
GrumpyCatFace wrote:
You're embarrassing yourself. Here's the kid's version.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Options_spread

http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... trategies/
I know very little about economics or investment banking. I took a micro and macro seven years ago. I'm not embarrassed to claim ignorance here lol.
It's understandable. Most people aren't familiar with anything beyond corporate stocks. I'm just annoyed that Okee is taking the time to troll all over my posts, to hide his ignorance.
To expose your own.
GrumpyCatFace wrote:Dumb slut partied too hard and woke up in a weird house. Ran out the door, weeping for her failed life choices, concerned townsfolk notes her appearance and alerted the fuzz.

viewtopic.php?p=60751#p60751

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SuburbanFarmer
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by SuburbanFarmer » Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:06 pm

heydaralon wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:
heydaralon wrote:
Gambling seems to be part of human nature, and it seems to exist in every society in some form or another. That being said, in spite of my limited knowledge, it irritates me that entire markets are built on speculation, especially since said speculation warps the prices of commodities. I don't know much about this, but it seems like this sort of behavior usually leads to bubbles and stuff. Also for things like crops, in my opinion, it seems very dumb to speculate on them because there will probably be advances in agriculture that makes cultivating them cheaper. Or there could be a huge famine in 20 years so idk. Fracking has become much much cheaper, so I guess that kind of already happened with oil. I'm not claiming to understand how the markets work or anything, but it seems like they are just insanity at the bottom. Keynes would have called it Animal Spirits (I think).

Makes the price more efficient, actually.

Too much people buying something can drive up the price of it. But speculators are taking short positions too. Without the speculation, you just have people buying shit until they realize it's overpriced and then the whole thing collapses.
explain to me in a dumbed down way why that is the case. It seems counter intuitive.
It's called the market cycle. Basically, once something has 'a price', anyone that wants to get some of it will have to pay at least a little bit more than that price. So, the price of the Thing goes up perpetually, based on interest, until it reaches a point where someone calls bullshit, and want to take their profits. At that point, the price goes down, and everyone that still owns the Thing loses a little bit of money. That makes more people realize that they're not going to make more by owning it, so they sell. Eventually, the herd panics, and the market for that Thing crashes. Then it starts over.

The Dutch Tulip example is the most famous, also see the Dot-Com bubble, and of course, 2007's mortgage crisis.
SJWs are a natural consequence of corporatism.

Formerly GrumpyCatFace

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SuburbanFarmer
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Re: THE ERA OF TRUMP

Post by SuburbanFarmer » Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:06 pm

Okeefenokee wrote:
GrumpyCatFace wrote:
heydaralon wrote:
I know very little about economics or investment banking. I took a micro and macro seven years ago. I'm not embarrassed to claim ignorance here lol.
It's understandable. Most people aren't familiar with anything beyond corporate stocks. I'm just annoyed that Okee is taking the time to troll all over my posts, to hide his ignorance.
To expose your own.
Well that seems to have worked out well for you.

Image
SJWs are a natural consequence of corporatism.

Formerly GrumpyCatFace

https://youtu.be/CYbT8-rSqo0