THE ERA OF TRUMP

[Martin Hash]

State pensions going bust would force them into the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) which would severely cut the most outrageous, California-like, benefits, while still providing a decent Standard of Living. That's the best solution.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I'm pretty sure the Big One is going to be kicked off soon, when the Fed starts really unwinding their QE purchases in earnest. That's $2 Trill hitting the markets in the next year or so. In addition, you've got the banks with another few trillion in the vaults that they don't feel like lending. Hello hyper-inflation, goodbye Dow.

Right now, there is absolutely nothing driving the markets, other than the Fed and blind hope. That's not to say that they won't pull another rabbit out of the colon, and make up some ridiculous regulation to stop it, but right now, I see us standing on a cliff.

[Smitty-48]

@apeman

And like I said, people are searching for yield, so horizontal upside can incite things to go vertical, can you imagine if AAPL started coughing up 5%? You'd see some vertical upside then, would probably blow through $200.

I think Tim Cook would be doing himself a big favour by cranking that dividend way up, because they would go nuclear hot in both vectors.

[apeman]

@apeman

And like I said, people are searching for yield, so horizontal upside can incite things to go vertical, can you imagine if AAPL started coughing up 5%? You'd see some vertical upside then, would probably blow through $200.

I think Tim Cook would be doing himself a big favour by cranking that dividend way up, because they would go nuclear hot in both vectors.

I agree, but would note that much more of a "dividend race" would actually alarm me.

To GCF/Zerohedge/Me for last 2-3 years: Believing the stock market will crash means you believe that the stock market is a real market, not a hyper manipulated, political and economic tool, that will eventually arrive at the "truth" and reflect the same in its prices.

I think the dial between markets and central control is getting turned towards central control a little bit more every day, so take that what its worth.

[SuburbanFarmer]

@apeman

And like I said, people are searching for yield, so horizontal upside can incite things to go vertical, can you imagine if AAPL started coughing up 5%? You'd see some vertical upside then, would probably blow through $200.

I think Tim Cook would be doing himself a big favour by cranking that dividend way up, because they would go nuclear hot in both vectors.

I agree, but would note that much more of a "dividend race" would actually alarm me.

To GCF/Zerohedge/Me for last 2-3 years: Believing the stock market will crash means you believe that the stock market is a real market, not a hyper manipulated, political and economic tool, that will eventually arrive at the "truth" and reflect the same in its prices.

I think the dial between markets and central control is getting turned towards central control a little bit more every day, so take that what its worth.

I agree completely. I just don't believe that manipulation on this scale can last indefinitely. Eventually, it has to break down. Also, there's that issue of remaining the Reserve Currency so that we can keep writing blank checks... that won't be the case, if we pump out dollars on demand, and devalue it.

"This time is different", always, until it isn't.

[Smitty-48]

I agree, but would note that much more of a "dividend race" would actually alarm me.

Well it's limited by cash flow, there's a tangible ceiling, their accountants aren't going to let them go off the deep end, but they're sitting on $240 billion fuckin' dollars, so I don't think tripling the dividend would be alarming, gives me a fuckin' chubb dog, but I doubt they're going to go that high, and I'd still be happy with 3.2%, 1.6% is damn misery, and even then, merely the rumor of a distribution, has them way up in the vertical already.

Even if they just did it like COST, more special dividends here and there, I think they could test $200. AAPL is a triple threat, they got cash, they got market share, and they still got vertical upside, but I think they are actually underrating how much vertical they are leaving on the table, by just being too misery.

It's not like they are under pressure to get into a race with anybody, but a little dab'll do ya, in a generally low yield environment, wouldn't have to crank it up that much, to get everybody's attention.

[apeman]

I agree, but would note that much more of a "dividend race" would actually alarm me.

Well it's limited by cash flow, there's a tangible ceiling, their accountants aren't going to let them go off the deep end, but they're sitting on $240 billion fuckin' dollars, so I don't think tripling the dividend would be alarming, gives me a fuckin' chubb dog, but I doubt they're going to go that high, and I'd still be happy with 3.2%, 1.6% is damn misery, and even then, merely the rumor of a distribution, has them way up in the vertical already.

Even if they just did it like COST, more special dividends here and there, I think they could test $200. AAPL is a triple threat, they got cash, they got market share, and they still got vertical upside, but I think they are actually underrating how much vertical they are leaving on the table, by just being too misery.

It's not like they are under pressure to get into a race with anybody, but a little dab'll do yeah, in a generally low yield environment, wouldn't have to crank it up that much, to get everybody's attention.

Yes, limited to Apple, no concerns with cash flow and war chest.

[apeman]

I agree completely. I just don't believe that manipulation on this scale can last indefinitely. Eventually, it has to break down. Also, there's that issue of remaining the Reserve Currency so that we can keep writing blank checks... that won't be the case, if we pump out dollars on demand, and devalue it.

"This time is different", always, until it isn't.

I know, I know, I know.

If everything tanks and my dry powder isn't available it will burn.

The USSR and its potemkin villages lasted like 70 years. If we start counting from 2008, you see how there is a concern here.

Everything all said and done, 2008 should make you LESS scared. That was the test. We've proven we can manipulate our way through (until we can't)

[Smitty-48]

Yes, limited to Apple, no concerns with cash flow and war chest.

MSFT is actually a better buy right now, in the horizontal, half as much cash on hand, but paying 2.3%, the bonus of AAPL cranking it up a bit, would be it could sqeeze a little more love out of Microsoft too.

Nobody is going to start forking cash out the door, hand over fist, but a little bit of racing would be fine by me, compete a bit for those dividend investors, we're the ones with you for the duration.

[Smitty-48]

Everything all said and done, 2008 should make you LESS scared. That was the test. We've proven we can manipulate our way through (until we can't)

Exactly, in order for the world to dump the USA, they would have to have somewhere better to go, and they just don't, all 2008 proved was; America is the only safe harbour, even when the shit hits the fan, especially when the shit hits the fan.

Nobody else can even manipulate their dicks, they can't do shit, King Dollah lives in one place, nobody can be the King, except the King, the House of Washington, has no competitors.

Before you go and poop your drawers, at least wait until there is an actual challenger on the horizon, but they're ain't none, in any direction, as far as the eye can see.

No matter how fucktarded you may think America is, everybody else is exponentially more fucktarded, with absolutely no signs, that any of them, are anywhere close, to even beginning to unfuck themselves, so you can pretty much relax in the saddle for the foreseeable future.