SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[C-Mag]

The virologists quoted in the media predict between 60-80% of the global population will be infected. The global population is 7.7 billion people (with a huge elderly population due to the demographic winter). That means, if they are right, between 4.6 and 6.1 billion people will be infected in the coming 1-2 years. At a very modest 2% mortality rate (the mortality rate based on outcomes is closer to 10% right now, though it changes each day), you are looking at between 92 million and 122 million dead.

If it is the more likely number that is around 10% (after the health care systems are swamped), then you are talking about 400-600 million dead.

With the caveat that, in the hail Mary case of developing a working vaccine, we could escape most of that. But it should be noted that this is similar to SARS in DNA makeup and the SARS vaccine kills patients, so it was abandoned years ago.

Without a vaccine, the only way to stop the pandemic is to reduce the R0 value below 1.0 through isolation. It's not like you get it once and that's it. You keep getting it and the second time is far more lethal.

+1

[Speaker to Animals]

So you are just going to assume that every single person on the planet is going to catch this virus, are you?
That's some seriously faulty maths you have there.
50,000,000 people have been quarantined in China, do you really think they could hide 2% (1 million) of that many people dying?

The virologists quoted in the media predict between 60-80% of the global population will be infected. The global population is 7.7 billion people (with a huge elderly population due to the demographic winter). That means, if they are right, between 4.6 and 6.1 billion people will be infected in the coming 1-2 years. At a very modest 2% mortality rate (the mortality rate based on outcomes is closer to 10% right now, though it changes each day), you are looking at between 92 million and 122 million dead.

If it is the more likely number that is around 10% (after the health care systems are swamped), then you are talking about 400-600 million dead.

With the caveat that, in the hail Mary case of developing a working vaccine, we could escape most of that. But it should be noted that this is similar to SARS in DNA makeup and the SARS vaccine kills patients, so it was abandoned years ago.

Without a vaccine, the only way to stop the pandemic is to reduce the R0 value below 1.0 through isolation. It's not like you get it once and that's it. You keep getting it and the second time is far more lethal.

So basically, we're all screwed and most of us are going to die?

No. Barring a technological solution, we can still stop it using the same techniques we used in the Black Death: strict quarantines and controls over travelers. We might have to isolate for a month or two to starve the pandemic of healthy hosts. Then the towns that are disease-free establish perimeters. Travelers coming in from outside that zone have to be in a strict quarantine before entering. So do trade goods.

The CCP was not wrong to do what they did. The reason why it doesn't work is that the Chinese people are fucking ridiculous and obey nothing. It is a corrupt society from top to bottom where people were raised with the attitude that they need only work around laws and do whatever they want. That's why the doors were barricaded. The stupid proles wouldn't stay inside.

[C-Mag]

I think assuming there will be 100 Million +/- deaths with what we know right now is reasonable.

Note: There are currently 615 Million people 65 and older globally.

[C-Mag]

So basically, we're all screwed and most of us are going to die?

No. Barring a technological solution, we can still stop it using the same techniques we used in the Black Death: strict quarantines and controls over travelers. We might have to isolate for a month or two to starve the pandemic of healthy hosts. Then the towns that are disease-free establish perimeters. Travelers coming in from outside that zone have to be in a strict quarantine before entering. So do trade goods.

The CCP was not wrong to do what they did. The reason why it doesn't work is that the Chinese people are fucking ridiculous and obey nothing. It is a corrupt society from top to bottom where people were raised with the attitude that they need only work around laws and do whatever they want. That's why the doors were barricaded. The stupid proles wouldn't stay inside.

I recently re-listened to Hardcore History 13 - The Black Death, I recommend it. Paleo Carlin was good.

[Speaker to Animals]

Think about the stubborn Asian lady phenomenon where this Chinese woman just does some stupid shit and refuses to stop. That happens all across Chinese society. That's why the CCP literally beats these people to get the message across.

I think Americans (most of us anyway) are pretty trustworthy. The ones who don't obey we can round up and deposit in FEMA camps for the duration of the lock down.

I would even consider drafting all the veterans in communities. Get us the equipment and gear we need. Let us handle the distribution of goods and dealing with the people in our community. Let the police focus on dealing with lock down violators and looters.

[Xenophon]

So basically, we're all screwed and most of us are going to die?

No. Barring a technological solution, we can still stop it using the same techniques we used in the Black Death: strict quarantines and controls over travelers. We might have to isolate for a month or two to starve the pandemic of healthy hosts. Then the towns that are disease-free establish perimeters. Travelers coming in from outside that zone have to be in a strict quarantine before entering. So do trade goods.

The CCP was not wrong to do what they did. The reason why it doesn't work is that the Chinese people are fucking ridiculous and obey nothing. It is a corrupt society from top to bottom where people were raised with the attitude that they need only work around laws and do whatever they want. That's why the doors were barricaded. The stupid proles wouldn't stay inside.

I recently re-listened to Hardcore History 13 - The Black Death, I recommend it. Paleo Carlin was good.

I miss old Dan.

[C-Mag]

I miss old Dan.

#MeToo
The last two podcasts the Racist Roots of the US in WWII's Pacific Theatre and Powerful Wammin in the Classical World.

It's logical to assume that Globalism will be dead for the near future, and that local supply of necessities will be King...………… Plan accordingly.

[Montegriffo]

Too early to tell right now, but I'm seeing a 2% fatality rate of Bat Aids.

Time for some basic math, Bernie supporters can just skip this part.
7.8 Billion people on this blue marble X 2% = 156 Million deaths globally.
750 Million people in Europe X 2% = 15 Million deaths in Europe
330 Million people in the US X 2% = 6.6 Million deaths in the US

Black Death 75 Million deaths (min)
Spanish Flu 50 Million deaths (approx.)

It's entirely possible, and likely that 1st world nations will have a much lower death rate than 3rd world shitholes.

So you are just going to assume that every single person on the planet is going to catch this virus, are you?
That's some seriously faulty maths you have there.
50,000,000 people have been quarantined in China, do you really think they could hide 2% (1 million) of that many people dying?

Fair point.

What percent of the population do you think will get the virus ?

Who knows?
let's assume the Chinese are lying their arses off and a million people catch the disease before warmer weather kills it off. That's 1 in every 13,000 or 0.0076% of the population of China. At 2% death rate it's 20,000 dead.

A couple of years ago the same panic monkeys were telling us we were all going to die from Ebola. Before that it was MERS and before that it was SARS.
This virus isn't the Spanish flu. That virus killed people of all ages within days of infection.

[Speaker to Animals]

So many logical fallacies and not enough fucks to give about his life. Let him go.

[C-Mag]

A couple of years ago the same panic monkeys were telling us we were all going to die from Ebola. Before that it was MERS and before that it was SARS.
This virus isn't the Spanish flu. That virus killed people of all ages within days of infection.

I don't discount anyone thinking wolf is being cried again.

For me what is different is that we are already seeing disruption of trade to a degree that major suppliers of Chinese goods to the west like Walmart, have empty shelves. This is only 45-60 days in, and the growth rate on a line graph is running at a 45 degree angle with no signs of letting off.