Is a Non-Nuclear World War Possible?

[SuburbanFarmer]

Oh, he does, does he?

Limited counterforce is the most and only real rational option, nuking a city is a point of no return, nuking an aircraft carrier otoh; not personal, just business.

We almost ended the world, over nukes existing near our coast. You think we just eat the cost of an entire carrier group being vaporized? You underestimate our incompetence by far.

[Okeefenokee]

Oh, he does, does he?

Limited counterforce is the most and only real rational option, nuking a city is a point of no return, nuking an aircraft carrier otoh; not personal, just business.

Funny how even the possibility of anything other than total global ruin is so foreign, not funny really. Too many bedtime stories from scare mongering school marms.

[Okeefenokee]

Oh, he does, does he?

Limited counterforce is the most and only real rational option, nuking a city is a point of no return, nuking an aircraft carrier otoh; not personal, just business.

We almost ended the world, over nukes existing near our coast. You think we just eat the cost of an entire carrier group being vaporized? You underestimate our incompetence by far.

We didn't almost end the world. That's so much hyperventilating. We stood our ground against the Soviets, snapped some cool pictures to show the world, and they backed down. You are such a surrender monkey.

[Smitty-48]

Oh, he does, does he?

Limited counterforce is the most and only real rational option, nuking a city is a point of no return, nuking an aircraft carrier otoh; not personal, just business.

We almost ended the world, over nukes existing near our coast. You think we just eat the cost of an entire carrier group being vaporized? You underestimate our incompetence by far.

The countervalue deterent remains a sword of damocles above your heads, If Mr. Ivan sinks carrier strike group one, or renders Andersen field on Guam into a nuclear ashtray, I don't believe that you are going to the existential matresses over that, and neither does Mr. Ivan.

Here's the advantage I have as Mr. Ivan, you have bases all over the world which you would not put your children into the fire over, so I can take nuclear potshots at your global network of bases, to bring you to the bargaining table, witout you risking a full on exchange by retaliating against the Rodina. If you want to flatten Caracas, or Havana, be my guest, but I'm betting you're not gonna take a shot a Kronstadt, over Guam, or Diego Garcia, or Qatar, and so on and so forth, until you back away from the brink and come to the table.

[Smitty-48]

See, the OP asks the wrong question, it's not "is a non-nuclear war possible?", the more relevant question would be "what sort of nuclear wars are plausible, without escalating all the way to the threshold of a countervalue exchange?"

To wit, what could you get away with nuking, to force the other side to back down, without backing them into a corner, where they would be prepared to nuke the world?

[Okeefenokee]

See, the OP asks the wrong question, it's not "is a non-nuclear war possible?", the more relevant question would be "what sort of nuclear wars are plausible, without escalating all the way to the threshold of a countervalue exchange?"

To wit, what could you get away with nuking, to force the other side to back down, without backing them into a corner, where they would be prepared to nuke the world?

this.

Too much adherence to the idea that any nuclear exchange will be a total exchange, and the last exchange.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Limited counterforce is the most and only real rational option, nuking a city is a point of no return, nuking an aircraft carrier otoh; not personal, just business.

We almost ended the world, over nukes existing near our coast. You think we just eat the cost of an entire carrier group being vaporized? You underestimate our incompetence by far.

The countervalue deterent remains a sword of damocles above your heads, If Mr. Ivan sinks carrier strike group one, or renders Andersen field on Guam into a nuclear ashtray, I don't believe that you are going to the existential matresses over that, and neither does Mr. Ivan.

Here's the advantage I have as Mr. Ivan, you have bases all over the world which you would not put your children into the fire over, so I can take nuclear potshots at your global network of bases, to bring you to the bargaining table, witout you risking a full on exchange by retaliating against the Rodina. If you want to flatten Caracas, or Havana, be my guest, but I'm betting you're not gonna take a shot a Kronstadt, over Guam, or Diego Garcia, or Qatar, and so on and so forth, until you back away from the brink and come to the table.

For what, exactly? A standoff with 2 smoking craters every few years? Face it. Full exchange is the end result of any nuclear attack.

[Smitty-48]

For what, exactly? A standoff with 2 smoking craters every few years? Face it. Full exchange is the end result of any nuclear attack.

As I said, America's center of gravity is the high seas, the source of your power projection, the thing that would be beating me in the theater conventional war, is your carrier strike groups and associated bases, taking a few of those out, is going to take the wind out of your sails and relieve the pressure on the Russian army in the process, attack your convoys, attack their escorts, attack their bases, with tactical nuclear weapons, so long as it is not in Hawaii nor Virginia, you're not going to blow the world up in a massive countervalue exchange.

If I nuke your fleet in Rota Spain, you're going to put the CONUS into the fire over that? C'mon, get real.

[SuburbanFarmer]

For what, exactly? A standoff with 2 smoking craters every few years? Face it. Full exchange is the end result of any nuclear attack.

As I said, America's center of gravity is the high seas, the source of your power projection, the thing that would be beating me in the theater conventional war, is your carrier strike groups and associated bases, taking a few of those out, is going to take the wind out of your sails and relieve the pressure on the Russian army in the process, attack your convoys, attack their escorts, attack their bases, with tactical nuclear weapons, so long as it is not in Hawaii nor Virginia, you're not going to blow the world up in a massive countervalue exchange.

If I nuke your fleet in Rota Spain, you're going to put the CONUS into the fire over that? C'mon, get real.

No, I'm going to bomb something that you care about. Maybe it's Sevastapol, maybe it's something smaller, but it'll be enough "to be sure that this never happens again". Which, of course, it will. You'll escalate, I'll do the same, and maybe annihalation takes a week, instead of 30 minutes.

[Smitty-48]

For what, exactly? A standoff with 2 smoking craters every few years? Face it. Full exchange is the end result of any nuclear attack.

As I said, America's center of gravity is the high seas, the source of your power projection, the thing that would be beating me in the theater conventional war, is your carrier strike groups and associated bases, taking a few of those out, is going to take the wind out of your sails and relieve the pressure on the Russian army in the process, attack your convoys, attack their escorts, attack their bases, with tactical nuclear weapons, so long as it is not in Hawaii nor Virginia, you're not going to blow the world up in a massive countervalue exchange.

If I nuke your fleet in Rota Spain, you're going to put the CONUS into the fire over that? C'mon, get real.

No, I'm going to bomb something that you care about. Maybe it's Sevastapol, maybe it's something smaller, but it'll be enough "to be sure that this never happens again". Which, of course, it will. You'll escalate, I'll do the same, and maybe annihalation takes a week, instead of 30 minutes.

Nah, you're not going to nuke Sevastopol, because you know I would have to retaliate against Pearl Harbor then, and you don't want that, once things have gotten this far, now you're starting to think, hold on a second, there's nothing in Europe which is worth all of this, why would you go all the way, just for a theater war in Europe? Have you checked with the American people, because I'm betting they're not up for that, I'm not trying to take one drop of drink from the Mississippi, what are you blowing the world up over? The Vistula? The Bug? The Dniestr? C'mon, get real.